re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Thinking about the cluster munitions, I think that there will be two main impacts:

1) Obviously, they will be more effective than standard rounds at helping Ukraine clear trenches, which is a significant part of the challenge that Ukraine faces right now.

The rounds promised today should be hitting Russian troops in a little over two weeks. I expect that Ukraine will be able to make faster progress once they get these shells.

2) They extend the Ukrainian offensive. So far, Ukraine has committed only a small part of its new western-armed brigades to the fight. Ukraine has lost some vehicles, but they've been replaced faster than they've been lost. In fact, Ukraine hasn't lost any Strykers at all yet, so the 32 pledged today will likely go with some Leopard 1 tanks to equip another mechanized brigade.

No, Ukraine has been taking ground slowly specifically so as not to lose men and equipment. The problem with the slow pace of the Ukrainian offensive was that Ukraine was going to run out of ammo, and the offensive would culminate.

Ukraine can now feel confident that won't happen anytime soon. Some 400,000 or so cluster rounds, when added to Ukrainian stocks, will extend the offensive by several months. Ukraine can be confident that they will continue to have the necessary ammo to attack until the mud season arrives in late fall.

By then, Abrams and GLSDB will have entered the fight. Ukraine will continue to get stronger over the next few months, while Russia continues to replace destroyed modern tanks with ancient T-55s.