quote:
f Ukraine could hold the big offensive until mid-late summer they would possibly have an extra 100-130 western tanks to put into the attack. That has the the ability to change the entire outcome of the offensive Ukraine is planning. Maybe by July they can get at least half of the 100-130 Leopard 1 tanks there as well as the 31 M1A1 Abrams. It’s really good that Italy is sending dozens of it’s M109A3 SPGs and that it had in storage along with the 19 Caesar SPGs from Denmark because this offensive has to be all about mobility with superior weaponry and tactics than what the Russians have. Having enough quality self propelled howitzers will give the advancing armored as well as infantry units the ability to advance under cover of artillery fire and also be able to keep advancing with those spearhead units as they take more ground allowing Ukrainian artillery to advance and strike deeper and deeper behind Russian lines at troop or ammunition concentrations. Having good towed artillery is still vitally important but when you plan is all about timing and speed you don’t want to have to waste time setting up towed guns and then breaking them back down to travel then do it all again. This is why I was glad to see Ukraine producing 122 mm old Soviet rounds from a nearby neighboring country because they still have a large quantity of Soviet 2S1 SPGs that were running low on 122 mm shells but if they can be given enough ammunition would greatly increase Ukraine’s mobile firepower.

The biggest mistake Hitler made in Operation Zitadelle was repeatedly pushing it back in order to bring up more panzers. What he failed to realize is that every delay in launching what we know know as the Battle of Kursk, gave the Soviets more time to strengthen the multi-tiered deep defenses of Central and Voronezh Fronts, thus dooming the German offensive to be ground down before achieving a breakthrough.

Ukraine would do well to remember the past or they will find themselves doomed to repeat it.

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Posted by GOP_Tiger

Baton Rouge

Member since Jan 2005

18026 posts

Posted on 4/16/23 at 3:58 pm to Darth_Vader

quote:
Ukraine would do well to remember the past or they will find themselves doomed to repeat it.

I tend to agree, and I think the political imperative of a victory would prevail in any case, even if the military thought it better to wait.

quote:
Maybe by July they can get at least half of the 100-130 Leopard 1 tanks there as well as the 31 M1A1 Abrams. It’s really good that Italy is sending dozens of it’s M109A3 SPGs and that it had in storage along with the 19 Caesar SPGs from Denmark because this offensive has to be all about mobility with superior weaponry and tactics than what the Russians have.

I think that, realizing that they have Leopard 1s and Abrams coming later, Ukraine will simply risk more of the Soviet tanks that they have -- they don't have to keep as much in reserve.

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Posted by tigeraddict

Baton Rouge

Member since Mar 2007

11849 posts

Posted on 4/16/23 at 6:56 pm to Darth_Vader

quote:
The biggest mistake Hitler made in Operation Zitadelle was repeatedly pushing it back in order to bring up more panzers.

This was the first thing that came to my mind. Hitler held off for a few months waiting on the newer panzers to hit the front. That gave the Russians time to build layered defenses and shore up their forces.

But Russia knew where the attack was going and aerial surveillance is not what it is today.

Russia knows an attack is coming. But not the when or where. They have ideas where one should go but that’s it. Last year then pulled forces to go to Kherson and then were hit in Kharkiv.

We know the US in sending inter and war gaming there to hit. It one thing to pick the best area to hit but Ukraine will need to show they have learned something from their western training

I still think attack earlier is better than waiting. Losing a lot of their solving era tanks isn’t bad knowing they have more modern, western tanks coming. Also, gives them more time to train/learn to maintain.

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