re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Today is Day 3 of essentially no significant progress for Russia in Bakhmut. On Twitter, @heliosrunner claims that he got three different reports (one of them from a commander) stating that Russia only made very minor progress in the south of the city.

Here's a new Washington Post story about the defense of the T0504 road, the one remaining good road in and out of Bakhmut:

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The maneuver has cut off virtually all roads — except Highway T0504, a two-lane hardball that connects to Bakhmut’s southwestern edge and is so vital that troops have branded it “the highway of life.”

“It’s the only road left in which we can evacuate the wounded, evacuate the dead,” said Maj. Oleksandr Pantsernyi, the commander of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion, one of the units responsible for defending the corridor. Just as important is the road’s role in sustaining the fight, he said, by enabling the movement of ammunition, water and fresh troops east.

“If we don’t do our job, the defense of Bakhmut will last for a day or two,” said Pantsernyi, 26. “And all people who are there will stay there forever.”

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The 24th has pummeled Russian positions with aging Soviet howitzers and fought soldiers inside trenches at fisticuff range. The unit also trains at nearly every available moment. It helped support a massive operation involving thousands of soldiers Thursday and Friday, as machine-gun fire and howitzer shell explosions rolled across the coal-packed hills in service of a crucial objective: to pry the alligator’s jaw open.

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A lieutenant with the call sign Hook held court with a platoon of soldiers wielding plastic airsoft guns to teach them how to assault buildings in open terrain. Teams of two took cover in the rubble of a chemical factory, then ran into a garage. “Move! Move! Move!” Hook shouted. The soldiers quickened their steps, suppressing phantom gunmen with volleys of plastic pellets.

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While Western backers proclaim that they are streaming equipment into Ukraine, soldiers said the supply becomes a trickle when the gear is doled out — even at the epicenter of fighting closely watched by senior Ukrainian officials. This has made their task of holding the road and stifling Russian advances harder and riskier, they said.

A surveillance-drone operator called Aviator said the battle for the skies has come down to commercial equipment often sourced from China. He uses a DJI Mavic 3 drone to search for enemy positions and patch in live video for artillery commanders so they can refine strikes in real time.

The Russians, in turn, have a DJI device that can detect his drone’s flight path and launch location — information used to fire at Ukrainian positions, he said.

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Chichen, 26, an artillery battery commander, his brow furrowed and pierced, constantly shifts between his phone, tablet and the aerial shots of Bakhmut’s apocalyptic landscape, looking to turn more Russian positions into smoldering rubble with his set of four D-30 howitzers.

The Bakhmut battle has taken a toll on the unit, he said. Of about two dozen assault operations in the area, only one ended without casualties. The darkest day, he said, involved an operation northeast of the city in the fall that left more than 150 soldiers dead, wounded or missing. “Even if you win, you still lose,” he said. “You go in knowing it will be hell.”

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Compounding the difficulties, he said, was the condition of the artillery pieces, which are twice as old as Chichen, ground down from use and repaired at least 10 times already, making them less reliable with every volley.

Then there is the ammunition. Artillery is a delicate skill, with cannoneers assessing topography, air pressure and even the weather at the top of the round’s parabolic arc before taking a shot. Another variable, Chichen said, is the shell’s fuse and explosives, which vary according to where they are made. The unit has had shells from Pakistan, the Czech Republic and elsewhere, soldiers said.

And there are not enough shells. At the start of the invasion, Chichen said, he would fire about 300 rounds a day. Now, it’s closer to 10 a day, with far more targets than the ammunition needed to hit them.

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But Chichen and his men did not dwell much on limitations Friday or become distracted by Zelensky’s honoring of 24th soldiers as heroes of Ukraine. His howitzers were trained on the southwest edge of Bakhmut, where the T0504 cuts into the city. Drones buzzed in the air, hunting for the enemy.

There were clear setbacks during the mission. The drone feed captured an enemy strike on Ukrainian forces, and there were soon reports of wounded. “Oh, [no],” a soldier cursed, with the resignation of someone who had seen such a moment before.

Another explosion flashed on screen at a house where Russian forces took shelter. The soldiers watching erupted in cheers twice; during the initial hit, and again after a second feed on a delay showed a different angle, like a touchdown replay.

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Some observations:

- Many of the soldiers defending this critical road are recently mobilized. That's why, when they have a break, they have a lieutenant leading them in basic infantry training drills with airsoft guns.

- The drone unit here has only cheap, off-the-shelf, Chinese Mavic 3 drones.

- The artillery unit uses D-30 Soviet guns. The D-30 first entered service in 1960, so these guns are all likely over 50 years old.


So, articles like this are why I get frustrated when people say "Oh, Ukraine is wasting its best men and equipment in the defense of Bakhmut, and now it won't have them for its spring offensive."

NO. The spring offensive will not be led by just-mobilized men who have not completed any real training. It will not use ancient Soviet howitzers. It will not feature off-the-shelf commercial drones which can easily be disabled by Russian EW.

Then, I look in Twitter and see frustrated comments like this one, from one of the two Washington Post reporters who wrote the story:

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Pretty much every Pentagon briefing touts how US/Western assistance is getting to the front, and then soldiers tell you they buy Chinese night vision goggles online and fire decrepit howitzers older than their parents

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If you ever work at a high level in any field, you know that the reporters which cover your field are often idiots. This guy (and lots of the commentariat) are just confused. The front is HUGE, and Ukraine's military is now five times larger than it was 14 months ago. There's no way for all those new military units to get the latest NATO equipment, much less to position it everywhere along the front lines.

And Bakhmut is not important. I would hope and expect that the Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar have more modern equipment, as a successful defense of Vuhledar is critical for victory in the spring offensive.

And almost all the new NATO gifts are being gathered for that offensive. If they were fed into existing units on the front lines now, their strength would be diluted.


TLDR: I get frustrated when I see critics making contradictory claims:

1) that new NATO equipment should be getting to Bakhmut for its defense, and

2) that Ukraine is ruining its offensive potential by defending Bakhmut.