re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
247 PM CST Mon Jan 17 2022

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The long term forecast is very uncertain given the large differences
in the model guidance Friday through Sunday. Some models, like the
GFS ensembles, show some a lingering frontal boundary Friday and
a Gulf low moving through our area over the weekend interacting
with the front off the coast, which would keep our rain chances
enhanced over the weekend. Some models, like the Euro, aren`t
initializing with a Gulf low at all and just continue the front
moving through the Gulf, indicating lower rain chances. NBM is
more in line with the GFS runs that indicate enhanced rainfall on
Friday into the weekend. Given the large spread in the models, the
NBM PoPs were not adjusted much for any targets of opportunity.
It will be interesting to see how the system develops through the
early week as it will impact our rain chances (and frankly, any
potential for winter precipitation, given the colder than average
temperatures) for Friday into the weekend. Winter precipitation is
possible, depending on rainfall and timing , but unlikely/very
uncertain at this point, so it has been left out of the forecast.
It is worth noting that it will be pretty cold though, looking at
the general model consensus, regardless of the spread in
precipitation chances with temperatures below average in the model
guidance Friday through the weekend.

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