Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Who: College of Charleston Cougars (5-6) KenPom 177, RPI 232, BPI 179 vs LSU Tigers (8-2) KenPom 61, RPI 16, BPI 40
When: Monday, December 22 - 8:00pm
Where: PMAC (13,215, 45th NCAA)
How:
***TV: SECN
***Radio: 98.1FM
***Stream: SECN+ via ESPN3.com

After a disappointing 3-2 start to the season, LSU has played one of their stronger months in recent years. The Tigers are 5-0 since late November with two wins against top 50 RPI teams and two true road wins. LSU now finishes off the out of conference season with three home games against sub 200+ RPI teams.

College of Charleston comes into Baton Rouge with a two game losing streak, but they can give anyone a scare with the big equalizer; the three pointer. On the year, College of Charleston is shooting 37.9% from three point range. They score 36% of their points (54th most) from long range making them a dangerous opponent.

C of C Projected Starting Lineup:
Joe Chealey (6'5" 190 So) 30.5MPG, 12.5PPG, 3.2APG, 42.9%3PT, 78.6%FT
Anthony Stitt (6'1" 195 Sr) 34.5MPG, 9.7PPG, 3.5RPG, 31.8%3PT
Canyon Barry (6'6" 205 So) 24.4MPG, 12.1MPG, 5.2RPG, 37.3%3PT, 78.6%FT
Evan Bailey (6'6" 215 Fr) 14.1MPG, 4.6PPG, 2.1RPG, 39.9%3PT
Adjehi Baru (6'9" 250 Sr) 29.3MPG, 9PPG, 6.7RPG, 56.5%FG

LSU Projected Starting Lineup:
Tim Quarterman (6'6" 187 So) 31.5MPG, 11.2PPG, 3.4APG, 5.3PPG, 81.3%FT
Keith Hornsby (6'4" 210 Jr) 35.4MPG, 13.8PPG, 5RPG, 38.3%3PT, 80%FT
Jarell Martin (6'10" 236 So) 34.8MPG, 16.8PPG, 9.0RPG, 76.3%FT
Jordan Mickey (6'8" 235 So) 34.8MPG, 15.9PPG, 9.9RPG, 66.7%FT
John Odo (6'10" 245 Sr) 11.6MPG, 2.5PPG, 1.5RPG, 61.5%FG

I cannot see Charleston beating the Tigers unless they go off from three point range. With that being said, they have four go to shooters. Barry (22), Chealey (15), Stitt (14), and Johnson (13) all have hit over 13 threes on the year. LSU only has Hornsby with over 10 three's made. Those four complete their rotation between the PG, SG, and SF positions. Evan Bailey, their 6'6" PF also has range to stretch a defense which could keep Jordan Mickey out of the lane in order to guard the 39% shooter.

LSU has been well documented for their lack of depth, but Charleston doesn't have much more of a rotation. LSU is 349th out of 351 in bench minutes (Calculated as minutes by those not in top 5 in minutes). Charleston is 296th in bench minutes and basically go 7 players deep. With that being said, Charleston combats their lack of depth by slowing the game down. Their five fastest paced games have all been losses and LSU's ability to speed up the pace of the game could be a factor in this one.

Keys to Victory:

Rebound Battle After out-rebounding their first 8 opponents this year, LSU has lost the rebound battle in each of the past two games. Charleston is not a very good rebounding team, but do play good defense. Extra possessions will be valued against the Cougars.

Getting to the FT Line LSU is shooting a very good 73.2% from the free throw line, but they don't get their often enough. Their 28.8% FTA/FGA is 322nd in the NCAA. LSU cannot settle for three's when they can drive to the hoop.

Defend the Perimeter I don't see Charleston winning this game unless they get hot from three point range. LSU has to defend the perimeter in this one or they could really ruin a good start to the season with a sub 200 loss.

Prediction:

LSU 76, College of Charleston 60
Filed Under: LSU Basketball

Comments

2 Comments
LSU release said game-time decision, but I just don't see him playing in this one. I'd rather give him another game break then come back next monday...
Reply79 months
whats it look like for Gray tonight? out again?
Reply79 months
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