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Message
re: Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer?
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:20 pm to Lester Earl
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:20 pm to Lester Earl
quote:I did, it's not the same thing.
dude, its the same thing. Read what you are typing.
So if a theoretical lefty has the same splits as Beltran, would you side with Beltran over the lefty? You said no, therefore you don't think it's the same thing.
quote:How can you say this statement here then fail to realize how badly it contradicts the "it's the same thing" line you stated right above? You're legit saying it's not at all the same thing if you're giving Beltran the extra credit for putting up the same exact numbers, then telling me it's the same thing. You can't have it both ways, it's one or the other.
all things equal(and that would be a lot of moving parts), Beltran gets the nod for being a great switch hitter.
This post was edited on 8/30/15 at 3:21 pm
0
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:23 pm to shel311
quote:
No you don't get extra credit for hitting tougher shots, I'd
You're totally missing the point. Im not saying he gets extra credit. Im saying he is known as one of the best shooters ever, because his greatness is measurable. It's measurable because years of data has been compiled in relation to his peers.
It counts for the same "3points" as a shittier shooter, but that doesn't mean they are the same. there is always an asterik with switch hitters, and always will be.
im going watch the saints game.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:25 pm to Lester Earl
quote:Exactly, it's measureable. Give me the data. If you're good based on the data, I don't care if you're a switch hitter or you can do it at 1 side of the plate, I see no reason to give one the extra credit if another player can put up the same splits without being a switch hitter.
You're totally missing the point. Im not saying he gets extra credit. Im saying he is known as one of the best shooters ever, because his greatness is measurable. It's measurable because years of data has been compiled in relation to his peers.
A switch hitter obviously is more versatile than a 1 dimensional player who can dominate 1 side of the plate but be a liability on the other side, but that's not the focus here.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:34 pm to shel311
quote:
Exactly, it's measureable. Give me the data. If you're good based on the data, I don't care if you're a switch hitter or you can do it at 1 side of the plate, I see no reason to give one the extra credit if another player can put up the same splits without being a switch hitter.
A switch hitter obviously is more versatile than a 1 dimensional player who can dominate 1 side of the plate but be a liability on the other side, but that's not the focus here.
it's not so much a big deal for right handed hitters, but generally for left handed hitters vs LHP pitching, there is a dramatic dip in production 9x out of 10.
look up the career splits of
carlos gonzalez
anthony rizzo
robinson cano
david ortiz
josh hamilton
you say it doesn't matter, because the end result is near equal. But fact is baseball is a situational game. It's matchup-based, and forever fluid.
This post was edited on 8/30/15 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:43 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
Beltran is a better player than Kenny Lofton. I don't get that one.
WAR
Lofton- 68.2
Beltran- 68.1
Lofton had six seasons with a WAR of 5.0 or greater. Beltran had 5. Lofton was 114.1 runs above replacement in the field according to UZR. Beltran has been 34.2 runs above average in the field over his career. At best, the two of them are a push.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:44 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
it's not so much a big deal for right handed hitters, but generally for left handed hitters vs LHP pitching, there is a dramatic dip in production 9x out of 10.
Switch hitters are a lot more flexible in a lineup, whether if you're going up against a stud lefty starter, or if the hitter can turn around and hit the other way against a specialist reliever (usually a lefty) late in the game.
Most left-handed hitters are much worse against left-handed pitchers. I think switch hitting can allow you to be more consistent, and also get you in the lineup every single day.
I don't think it's a factor that should necessarily bump Beltran over the top when it comes to HOF voting, mainly because everyone who is being considered for the HOF is a really good player and putting up great numbers anyway. But it certainly has value. I think it has even more value when comparing two guys who are average players.
I agree with your point about comparing him to other switch hitters, because that is the type of thing that baseball voters do.
Anyways, this thread certainly went off track. I do think I would vote Beltran into the Hall of Fame.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:47 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
now you're just pulling shite out your arse.
Well, yeah, because it was a hypothetical. I have no idea what he would hit if he only hit his natural side. Maybe he'd even have a better career average if he didn't switch hit and only stuck with his natural side.
Here's what I do know: he's a .281 career hitter. He chose to be a switch-hitter because he felt it would give him better results than only batting on his natural side, otherwise he wouldn't have done it. He learned a valuable skill that is very difficult. That valuable skill, presumably, gave him better end results.
I don't give him credit for the skill. I give him credit for the end results (i.e. stats) the skill helped him produce. His end results presumably would not have been as good without the skill, so that's where the value of it is, not the simple fact he can do it. You seem to want to give him credit for the skill. In my opinion, the skill is completely irrelevant; the results are what matters. All else being equal, a .295 switch-hitter is a worse hitter, not as good of a player and not as worthy of the HOF as a .296 right-handed only. All else being equal, a .296 switch-hitter is EXACTLY THE SAME as a .296 right-handed only (not even a "tiebreaker" in the switch-hitter's favor).
BTW, I'm not saying you're wrong that voters won't take it into account. I think many will. I'm just saying they shouldn't.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:48 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
WAR
Lofton- 68.2
Beltran- 68.1
Lofton had six seasons with a WAR of 5.0 or greater. Beltran had 5. Lofton was 114.1 runs above replacement in the field according to UZR. Beltran has been 34.2 runs above average in the field over his career. At best, the two of them are a push.
Well alright.
Kenny Lofton is no longer eligible for the Hall of Fame, though.
ETA: Where do you find your stats, usually? I'm on fangraphs (no idea how reliable they are), and it says Beltran's career WAR is 3 points higher (and counting, maybe). Also, it says Lofton had 5 season of a WAR of 5.0 or greater, while Beltran has 7. Lofton had 7 seasons of a WAR of 4.0 or greater, while Beltran has 9.
Seems to me like Beltran is absolutely the better offensive player.
This post was edited on 8/30/15 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:50 pm to Lester Earl
I feel like we may agree more than disagree if we really hashed it out. Again, I do agree that players who are really poor vs 1 side would be downgraded if they had similar stats to a guy who is more consistent.
I found a decent example to prove my point, I guess. Don't necessarily think I'm comparing the 2 players or their totals.
Take a look at Carlos Lee, he's a righty. His career OPS vs righties/lefties is .822/821, much like Beltran's career OPS is very consistent.
My point is, I don't think it's fair then to compare Beltran to switch hitters, a much smaller group, then compare Lee to all hitters. I just don't think that would be fair.
I found a decent example to prove my point, I guess. Don't necessarily think I'm comparing the 2 players or their totals.
Take a look at Carlos Lee, he's a righty. His career OPS vs righties/lefties is .822/821, much like Beltran's career OPS is very consistent.
My point is, I don't think it's fair then to compare Beltran to switch hitters, a much smaller group, then compare Lee to all hitters. I just don't think that would be fair.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:52 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
You convinced me..
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:57 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Lofton- 68.2
62.4
Posted on 8/30/15 at 3:58 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
you say it doesn't matter, because the end result is near equal. But fact is baseball is a situational game. It's matchup-based, and forever fluid.
This is an interesting point. So I guess I'll change my opinion about it from a "tie-breaking" standpoint. However, I still disagree about a switch-hitter being its own "sub group". If you think Beltran - based on his stats - is on the bubble, then fine, him being a switch hitter can get him in, because there have probably been a few times a relief pitcher who would have been used wasn't due to Beltran's switch-hitting ability, I guess. But if you think a natural side-only center fielder wouldn't get in with Beltran's career stats/fielding ability, then Beltran shouldn't be in. It doesn't matter that he's one of the best switch-hitters of all time.
Anyway, this has been a long debate over something that's minutely related to the thread, so I think we should stop hijacking it, per BB03's request.
This post was edited on 8/30/15 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:11 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
Beltran has bombed in the Bronx thus far due to age and injuries
While true last season, he's been very solid this season. In fact, besides a crappy April, he's been a very good player.
Beltran has arguably been the Yankees' best player over the 2nd half of the season in 2015.
quote:
Do you think all of the 3 cathers will get in Mauer, Molina, and Posey?
Yep. I do.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:13 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
. All else being equal, a .295 switch-hitter is a worse hitter, not as good of a player and not as worthy of the HOF as a .296 right-handed only. All else being equal, a .296 switch-hitter is EXACTLY THE SAME as a .296 right-handed only (not even a "tiebreaker" in the switch-hitter's favor).
Just note that a .295 on surface could still call for weak splits vs LHP, esp by left handed hitters. Because you'll get more AB's vs RHP it will weigh your average to the high side, you can seemingly have a .295 average but still hit .250-260 vs left handed pitching. Being the situational game that baseball is, this is obviously not ideal late in a game, or against LHP all together.
Beltran's hitting splits do not change from either side. He is way above average hitting both. It's rare to have a lefty hit lefty's well, unless your joey votto or 2015 anthiny rizzo.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:15 pm to TigerintheNO
since May 1st
Beltran
305/370/530
Beltran
305/370/530
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:17 pm to shel311
quote:
cool, I'm gonna give Kobe Bryant extra credit for those high degree of difficulty shots, I'll call it the Lester Effect.
You are overlooking the fact that switch hitters provide their teams with greater flexibility and platoon advantages. That is worth something.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:22 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
since May 1st
Beltran
305/370/530
And he's not getting hurt. It's been awesome.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:23 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
ETA: Where do you find your stats, usually? I'm on fangraphs
Fangraphs and Baseball Reference calculate WAR differently. Both sites are incredibly reliable.
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:31 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
Lefty hitters have an advantage because roughly 70% of pitchers are right-handed. Should right-handed hitters get an extra 'push' when it comes time for HoF consideration?
Being a switch-hitter is more or less the answer to a trivia question .
Being a switch-hitter is more or less the answer to a trivia question .
This post was edited on 8/30/15 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 8/30/15 at 4:36 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Fangraphs and Baseball Reference calculate WAR differently. Both sites are incredibly reliable.
Well, BR has them basically identical. Fangraphs has Beltran 3.1 higher.
So something has to give.
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