re: BOIL has become predictable

What a day yesterday. I didn't make it in to the office until after lunch. I guess I predicted crazy volatility.

What is interesting to me are the analysts. Some were indicating bearish signals until yesterday. I don't know if based on fundamentals or technicals. One completely revered yesterday and came out and said bullish natty gas market remains unchanged, and predicts natty gas above $4.50 for the rest of the year.

And the futures market, after the initial burst yesterday, starts its slow trend back down. The range to me appears to be $4.30 - $4.50 right now.

I'm guessing not a whole lot of anything until next Thursday, but who knows when some expert comes out and indicates an injection of 97, when the projection was 97. is a miss.

Overnight saw futures tick more about .035 - .05. If this is the open, today should be an opportunity to load up on whatever short positions one has, or at least average your short cost downward.

It's very difficult for me to ever predict day trading levels from overnight trades in the futures markets as overnight is filled with a greater percentage of retail speculators.

If it holds, this type of movement in the futures results in a move of over 1% - 2% in the etf's, and even greater volatility in the options. Having said that, more recently the options pricing on buying days has what seems a new higher resistance notwithstanding the decay in underlying assets price.

Mr. Eng08. Yes I purchased more puts on Friday. There is enough open interest and liquidity to make it an interesting trade. It is going to be work for me to sell once that starts. I don't think with 17K oi in July $23P I can sell aon, or I'd drive the market down.

Here we go. Up between .074 -.081.

The recurring quote I keep reading from the analysts that are quoted weekly in GD is that "It's just not good enough!". I know we're still two months out, but reality needs to set in, fast

Gas Daily... platt's publication

So short, it is shorter than short could ever be short, and it hurts to be this short.

In conclusion, I am short. Even shorter.

Things are settling down to the range I talked about on Friday in the future's market.

I'll be on the road Thursday. Can someone update me on the report and pricing of cash, futures and UNG please?

You don't need to be as anal as me, but just the big picture after the report would be fine. I'd appreciate it.

Thank you sir.

Futures ticked down a smidge overnight. While I do believe the fine gentleman about BOIL being predictable, I don't follow BOIL. What I am now starting to understand is that in my case UNG is predictable.

Thursday I will be going to the Lake Geneva area. Some say it is like the Haptons of the Midwest. I don't know about all that. While there are some extremely wealthy families that have summer homes there, I suspect the Midwest is more like Louisiana than like the east coast.

Clarification. Previously I mentioned UNG puts meeting resistance when natural gas futures and UNG share price went up. What I meant was support, not resistance. So today again futures and the underlying etf went down, but not as much as they previously went up, and the short UNG puts actually settled higher than at the same or higher futures and share price. Good news for many of us.

Cash is at $4.645
June is at $4.489
July is at $4.49
Aug is at $4.475

Tomorrow will be interesting. Light trading before the holidays on the east coast, not so much in Chicago. It's only a 40 minute drive from Chicago to lake Geneva. It takes the east coast liberal trash longer to get to the Hamptons. Predicated on the report, the June contract could match cash price, or even exceed it, or Friday's cash price could be significantly less.

Again the projections are so wide from smallest to largest, it shouldn't take much to at least meet the projected injection. I've also read 120 projections though.

Rumor from Chicago - I've heard last week's reclassification might again get reclassified this week, making this week's injection seem abnormally high. If he is wrong, I'll make him buy me dinner in Lake Geneva. I don't know, and I doubt he does either. He did call my coffee trade correctly though, so I'll give him that.

Are reclasses from working to base that common? I'm used to seeing them go from base to working, as operators optimize their facilities, but working to base seems like it'd be rare.

I think this is the facility responsible for last week's reclass:

LINK