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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 5/21/14 at 7:26 pm to
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2473 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 7:26 pm to
I don't see anything out on FERC that would indicate a pending reclass, so unless it's an intrastate storage company it sounds like BS. I'm amazed that such things even hold sway the market. We're talking about 10 Bcf of gas max.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/21/14 at 8:12 pm to
Rumors. Who knows? These commodity guys are even crazier than I am.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 6:36 am to
Here we go. I know everyone is waiting eagerly for my Lake Geneva / natural gas commentary. I'm leaving at some point this morning. I'll be pulling over at about 9:29 CST to see the market's reaction, and ensure there is nothing I need to do.

I'm not that good with a smart phone, so I'll only be able to see my equities trading account. Won't really be able to see the future's market's reaction.

The weather is supposed to be nice in Lake Geneva, although I rarely leave Delavan as I enjoy fishing and golfing in more solitude there.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22793 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 8:21 am to
Check this thread golfer.... Ill update ya.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 8:34 am to
Thanks everyone.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16191 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:04 am to
What are you expecting this morning Force?
Posted by TheBigHurt
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2378 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:20 am to
The past two weeks dgaz has tanked at 9:30. Will we buck the trend this week?
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22793 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:25 am to
Lil bit better than last week 111-115...but I don't know if that will do anything to ung after last week....We are gonna bet projections
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2473 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:33 am to
Net injection of 106, no reclasses. UNG down 2%+ at release.

LINK

quote:

Working gas in storage was 1,266 Bcf as of Friday, May 16, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 106 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 774 Bcf less than last year at this time and 943 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,209 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 449 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 65 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 379 Bcf below the 5-year average of 892 Bcf after a net injection of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 115 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 12 Bcf. At 1,266 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
This post was edited on 5/22/14 at 9:34 am
Posted by TheBigHurt
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2378 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:37 am to
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16191 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:38 am to
Yay for no reclassification
Posted by TheBigHurt
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2378 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 9:54 am to
DGAZ up 6.85% I'll take it!
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2473 posts
Posted on 5/22/14 at 12:44 pm to
Analysts were projecting a net injection of 101-105, so 106 is somewhat of a beat.

June 23's approaching $0.60, up 30% today. Hoping we can hang onto some of these gains this week.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 8:37 am to
Buying opportunity again. Futures up a smidge, UNG up 1%, puts down 25%.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 2:10 pm to
2% & 32%. I'm trying to buy more put contracts at fire sale pricing. UNG $23 puts have met a higher resistance, which is good for me long term (June/July), but doesn't do my buying attempts today much good.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16191 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

Demand, not supply, about to take hold of natural gas prices"[The] cycle has turned," says Deutsche's Stephen Richardson, opining that boosted demand, rather than the soaring supply of the past few years is about to take control on natural gas prices.Low prices have encouraged switching and "a new baseload of natural gas demand on the industrial side is just emerging as a result of multi-year investments."


Got this notification sent to me today. Any worries?
Posted by TigeRoots
Member since Oct 2008
8505 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 3:23 pm to
That sure doesn't sound good.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 5:04 pm to
Long term bullish sentiment on natural gas isn't new. They might even be correct. FWIW, I tend to agree with a lot of the bull's logic. On the fundamentals anyway. From a technical perspective, ng is very volatile, and anyone's guess has a chance to be spot on.

With respect to this thread and my trade, it isn't about long term bullish sentiment, it is about NG below $4.50 by July to break even. And below $4.50 to make at least some money.

Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 9:46 pm to
Have y'all decided whether BOIL is predictable yet?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10232 posts
Posted on 5/27/14 at 9:49 pm to
Check back in July. Maybe even sooner.
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