- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 5/15/14 at 7:55 am to L S Usetheforce
Posted on 5/15/14 at 7:55 am to L S Usetheforce
TheForce,
What are you expecting? And on what basis?
What are you expecting? And on what basis?
1
Posted on 5/15/14 at 8:00 am to econ85
I'm expecting an injection in the high 80's/low 90s and UNG to drop into the low 23 range today.
This post was edited on 5/15/14 at 8:01 am
Posted on 5/15/14 at 8:03 am to L S Usetheforce
I hope you're right! Do you work in the industry?
I'm thinking about playing short on the futures to go along with my puts on UNG. That's probably dumb because i'm doubled exposed.
I'm thinking about playing short on the futures to go along with my puts on UNG. That's probably dumb because i'm doubled exposed.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:26 am to econ85
Iowa,
Could you send me the spreadsheet you referenced earlier in the thread? econ85td@gmail.com
I cannot. Because I have it set up to pull the price of UNG from my brokerage account Level II, and real time cash and futures contracts from my futures account.
What you could do is just use one of the free barchart programs on the web. Plug in the price of UNG, NYMEX contracts, etc, and you can easily see the price relationship to each other.
With respect to figuring the risk of options, and ideal pricing. Again, there are all sorts of free programs, but I usually use the calculator on CBOE's website.
I'm not trying to be a jerk, but if I sent the spreadsheet, I'm afraid it would access my accounts, and I'm not enough of a computer guy to take this risk.
On another note, I've been having trouble getting July $20 UNG Puts bought, so I've started placing small orders and I seem to be getting more fills today.
If UNG hits $21 or $20, or even lower, buying UNG $2) July puts for .11 will seem like a bargain. 20 contracts is risking a total of $225.00 with commission and fees. Ever blow $225 on anything frivolous before?
Could you send me the spreadsheet you referenced earlier in the thread? econ85td@gmail.com
I cannot. Because I have it set up to pull the price of UNG from my brokerage account Level II, and real time cash and futures contracts from my futures account.
What you could do is just use one of the free barchart programs on the web. Plug in the price of UNG, NYMEX contracts, etc, and you can easily see the price relationship to each other.
With respect to figuring the risk of options, and ideal pricing. Again, there are all sorts of free programs, but I usually use the calculator on CBOE's website.
I'm not trying to be a jerk, but if I sent the spreadsheet, I'm afraid it would access my accounts, and I'm not enough of a computer guy to take this risk.
On another note, I've been having trouble getting July $20 UNG Puts bought, so I've started placing small orders and I seem to be getting more fills today.
If UNG hits $21 or $20, or even lower, buying UNG $2) July puts for .11 will seem like a bargain. 20 contracts is risking a total of $225.00 with commission and fees. Ever blow $225 on anything frivolous before?
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:29 am to Iowa Golfer
2 minutes baby. Just sneaked in another order.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:29 am to Iowa Golfer
No problem. I definitely understand.
Futures pushing up before inventories.
Futures pushing up before inventories.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:33 am to econ85
Here we go. Futures headed down a smidge, but in a hurry.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:34 am to Iowa Golfer
UNG pops up. Anyone got their head around the report yet?
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:37 am to Iowa Golfer
DGAZ pulled back quickly from 3.60 to 3.26 so we must have missed the projection.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:37 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:39 am to Iowa Golfer
Yeah those 20's haven't really moved at all this week
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:39 am to Iowa Golfer
egion 05/09/14 05/02/14 net change implied flow (Bcf) % change (Bcf) % change
East 457 C 397 60 52 C 803 -43.1 920 -50.3
West 219 203 16 16 355 -38.3 333 -34.2
Producing 484 455 29 29 792 -38.9 866 -44.1
Salt 126 113 13 13 226 -44.2 179 -29.6
Nonsalt 358 342 16 16 567 -36.9 687 -47.9
Total 1,160 C 1,055 105 97 C 1,950 -40.5 2,119 -45.3
C=Reclassification.
Reclassifications from base gas to working gas resulted in increased working gas stocks of approximately 8 Bcf in the East region for the week ending May 9, 2014. The implied flow for the week is an increase of 97 Bcf to working gas stocks. (See Notes and Definitions for more information on "implied flow.")
Summary
Working gas in storage was 1,160 Bcf as of Friday, May 9, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 105 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 790 Bcf less than last year at this time and 959 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,119 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 463 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 60 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 382 Bcf below the 5-year average of 866 Bcf after a net injection of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 114 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 16 Bcf. At 1,160 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2009 through 2013.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
East 457 C 397 60 52 C 803 -43.1 920 -50.3
West 219 203 16 16 355 -38.3 333 -34.2
Producing 484 455 29 29 792 -38.9 866 -44.1
Salt 126 113 13 13 226 -44.2 179 -29.6
Nonsalt 358 342 16 16 567 -36.9 687 -47.9
Total 1,160 C 1,055 105 97 C 1,950 -40.5 2,119 -45.3
C=Reclassification.
Reclassifications from base gas to working gas resulted in increased working gas stocks of approximately 8 Bcf in the East region for the week ending May 9, 2014. The implied flow for the week is an increase of 97 Bcf to working gas stocks. (See Notes and Definitions for more information on "implied flow.")
Summary
Working gas in storage was 1,160 Bcf as of Friday, May 9, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 105 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 790 Bcf less than last year at this time and 959 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,119 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 463 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 60 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 382 Bcf below the 5-year average of 866 Bcf after a net injection of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 114 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 16 Bcf. At 1,160 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2009 through 2013.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:40 am to rintintin
Yeah, it's not making sense...
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:41 am to Iowa Golfer
If you're short, this is a beautiful thing right now. Do what you want, but I'm buying discounted puts right now. The market is disconnected from reality right now. The best thing for us, is we have until July for the market to come to grips with reality.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:46 am to Iowa Golfer
105 vs 97.....that number is great for us...... Its amazing the denial Bulls are in.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:46 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
The market is disconnected from reality right now.
What I'm thinking. I feel like people just bought on the release without even looking at the numbers. Kinda like stocks during earnings, they don't really know if it's good or bad they just act.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 9:53 am to rintintin
Beautiful. Futures down over a dime across the board. I'm backing up the truck on UNG puts.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 10:31 am to Iowa Golfer
so apparently there is a "reclassification" of working gas to implied gas in the east region that is making people think the 105 should really be 97......hence the 97 vs 97.......and that we fell short on beating the estimate.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 10:51 am to Iowa Golfer
I've got about $5,000 play money. Can you guys tell me what to buy? I want to ride the wave and I'm not worried about taking a loss.
Posted on 5/15/14 at 10:52 am to I Love Bama
I picked up 122 more contracts today, July $23 UNG puts, and July $20 Puts.
Page 16 of 135
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News