re: BOIL has become predictable

Sorry.

In some ways predictable. June contract settlement rushed to cash price. July and August contracts trading below cash, and UNG took a beating on their ongoing roll, not yet reflected in NAV or trading price.

Platts Pre-Report Analyst Survey Suggests 107 Bcf to 111 Bcf Addition to Natural Gas Stocks


Washington - May 28, 2014


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a natural gas storage injection between 107 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 111 Bcf for the week ended May 23, according to a Platts survey of analysts.


A number within that range would be higher than both the 88-Bcf build reported a year ago and the 93-Bcf five-year average, according to EIA data.


Beyond the consensus, the wider range of analysts’ expectations for Thursday’s report spanned from injections of 100 Bcf to 115 Bcf.


As of last week, stocks stood at 1.266 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), a 37.9% deficit the year-ago level and a 42.7% deficit to the five-year average of 2.209 Tcf. As a result, analysts continue to raise concerns about the market’s ability to refill storage adequately this summer.


"We keep hearing about record production, but we're also seeing record demand," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. "And we're also hearing more about tightness in pipeline capacity."


Producers "may want to produce a lot, but they can't get the pipeline capacity. The issues are still being worked out on capacity, and it's not going to be resolved this summer," Flynn said. "So in the longer-term scenario, it might not be as easy as some think to get production where it needs to be."


Analysts also noted that despite the expectation of a triple-digit injection in Thursday’s report, the forecast for next week is lower. "The bears in the market are looking for a biblical proportion kind of injection, but I'm not sure we have enough pipeline capacity to allow that to happen," said Tom Saal, broker at INTL FCStone.


To schedule an interview with a Platts or Bentek Energy natural gas expert about this survey or about supply/demand or policy developments in natural gas, contact Kathleen Tanzy at kathleen_tanzy@platts.com or 212-904-2860.


This analyst survey is conducted by the Platts editorial team in Washington, D.C., and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

I wish there was a natural gas VIX trade.

It pisses me off they don't have the infrastructure to handle natural gas production in 2014.

Its been almost 5 years since Fracking started popping.

I'll be at the Capitol tomorrow. Unfortunately. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm guessing the injection will somehow be seen as good news for the bulls whatever it is. Either that, or the one day down pattern we've been seeing, meeting resistance, then falling to a new, slightly higher support level.20/2

In any event, I'm going to place sells order on a portion of my July UNG puts.

I still think natural gas below $4.50 is vital, and maybe even below $4.00 is possible. To be perfectly honest, I am slightly concerned that this might not turn out as well as planned. I think it turns out ok, just not quite what I once thought.

We'll sit back and watch. There is plenty of time on this, and I'm just a bit more negative than usual this evening. Probably because I need to waste a d at campaign ceremonies. frick. Some of the shite we need to do in order to make money is really painful sometimes.

It should be a good deal if the injection is in that estimated range.

114 bcf injection.........moving along nicely......we stay an avg of a hundred until july 30th and we will be just fine.

114 bcf is mighty impressive...

Although we're not seeing quite as violent a move as last week. I'm wondering if the bears are growing weary.