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Message

re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:56 pm to
Yes, I wish I had about 1000 puts.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:48 pm to
June $4.432, July $4.436 and Aug $4.433
Posted by MontyFranklyn
T-Town
Member since Jan 2012
23830 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 7:51 pm to
KOLD has been moving upward for the past 4 days. I think i'm buying the July $60 calls
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 10:29 pm to
No July expiry. No liquidity. Also KOLD is a tough beast to understand. I'd suggest you really look at this before you plunk down money on it, or its options.
Posted by MontyFranklyn
T-Town
Member since Jan 2012
23830 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 8:02 am to
I figured if there is enough movement upwards that someone would start selling them. Thanks for the advice.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16140 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 8:11 am to
I'm not getting my hopes up tooooo much just yet, we were at these levels not too long ago. Really need another nice injection report Thursday to keep the momentum going. If we get one this week, then another nice one next week, theeeeen I might start setting the place mats for my champagne dinner.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 1:19 pm to
I'm trying to buy more July $20 puts at .08 like crazy lately. I'm only getting partial fills. Even at the ask it seems to me to be a no brainer.

You can't tell me that as UNG approaches #23 and $22 that these won't easily double.

The UNG put trades have been easy. I really think popular sentiment is still bullish on Natty Gas, and it appears to me that the UNG trade is filled with amateurs just begging me to take their money from them.
Posted by TigeRoots
Member since Oct 2008
8505 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

I'm not getting my hopes up tooooo much just yet, we were at these levels not too long ago. Really need another nice injection report Thursday to keep the momentum going. If we get one this week, then another nice one next week, theeeeen I might start setting the place mats for my champagne dinner.


My thoughts exactly.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 2:45 pm to
I'm up $11,000 as of today, and it hasn't even started to begin.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 3:06 pm to
LSUsetheforce:

Thanks. I owe you. I've always traded in and out of UNG options, but started following much more closely after reading your posts here.

I stand to make quite a lot of money off this trade, as painful as it was to feed and average down on. I just went short too early. Knowing this, and knowing your price and supply projections were accurate, I had one of two choices. Sit and do nothing, or go big, average down and keep the faith. I choose the latter, and I'm pretty grateful right now.

This is going to be a six digit hit for me.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37686 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

This is going to be a six digit hit for me.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22742 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 3:51 pm to
Will be for me as well.....

I take Belgian ales for payment.

Posted by TigeRoots
Member since Oct 2008
8505 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 4:26 pm to
quote:

I'm up $11,000 as of today, and it hasn't even started to begin


Nice.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 4:29 pm to
You remind me when I cash in. I'll buy a gift cert for you at some specialty beer store of your choosing. I'm happy to do this.
Posted by TigeRoots
Member since Oct 2008
8505 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

You remind me when I cash in. I'll buy a gift cert for you at some specialty beer store of your choosing. I'm happy to do this.


Pretty sure this was meant to be for Use the force, as I have contributed nothing to this thread but hooping & hollering. However, I am on this ride with y'all and it's getting good.
Posted by Tigris
Mexican Home
Member since Jul 2005
12326 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

LSUsetheforce:

Thanks. I owe you.


Yep. I've been following and have traded on rises and dips. So far I've locked in $6k, with another $4k if I pulled the trigger now. Most interesting topic on this board in a long time (since Jersey was around).
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/13/14 at 8:18 pm to
Cash contract closed at $4.511, June contracts are currently (8:14 CST) @ $4.363, July contracts @ $4.368, and August contracts @ $4.363.

I use the NYMEX contracts.

I's like to see cash at below $4.00 for real serious money on my shorts. I had thought it would reach $4 sometime in late June, early July. The future's market has reacted more quickly than I anticipated. I still think it could have minor ticks upward. If we have an injection of 90 like Usetheforce is predicting the day after tomorrow, every short on here should be peeing themselves. As it is, I almost peed myself today.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 6:53 am to
Future's ticked up slightly overnight. Probably can get more puts today. Just saying. I'm a buyer.
Posted by econ85
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts
Posted on 5/15/14 at 7:16 am to
Iowa,

Could you send me the spreadsheet you referenced earlier in the thread? econ85td@gmail.com
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22742 posts
Posted on 5/15/14 at 7:46 am to
quote:

Natural gas prices have slid to the lowest since April 1st, as traders await the EIA’s Weekly Storage report, which is tipped to show a rise in stocks by the most since September 2013. Another higher-than-anticipated print could put further selling pressure on the energy commodity based on concerns over a glut in supply. While the buildup likely reflects some seasonal factors, a continued rise in inventories would create a bearish case for natural gas.
Daily FX


9:30 today may tip the scales.
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