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Favorite team: | Air Force |
Location: | |
Biography: | |
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Number of Posts: | 49 |
Registered on: | 1/31/2010 |
Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: 2/4/2013 Basketball, Hockey, Soccer Bet Thread
Posted by BGUT on 2/4/13 at 3:25 pm
Everyone is looking at the last time these two teams played when Mason beat OD 71-46 at home. Hey, they might beat them that bad again, but I will take my chances.
What makes it fishy is why didn't Vegas open this line at 10+? It feels like a perception trap....
re: 2/4/2013 Basketball, Hockey, Soccer Bet Thread
Posted by BGUT on 2/4/13 at 3:08 pm
realtimerpi.com has this game between 1 to 4 points. I will take my chances with 6 and side with Vegas....
re: 2/4/2013 Basketball, Hockey, Soccer Bet Thread
Posted by BGUT on 2/4/13 at 3:06 pm
Reeks of Virginia vs Georgia Tech this past Sunday. Nobody thought GT had a shot and look they won straight up....
re: 2/4/2013 Basketball, Hockey, Soccer Bet Thread
Posted by BGUT on 2/4/13 at 3:01 pm
Good call NOLA. Line is definitely baited. I think Old Dominion will be my only play tonight! George Mason is getting outrageous Public support. Line staying steady at 6....
re: 29/1/MMXIII Basketball Bet Thread: admins don't like good luck edition-pg4 NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/29/13 at 7:20 pm
I like it!! Waiting to see how my earlier stuff plays out before I decide on how to bet it....
re: 29/1/MMXIII Basketball Bet Thread: admins don't like good luck edition-pg4 NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/29/13 at 7:19 pm
HAHA! There is a new guy I am following that is all he does. I will follow him to see how he does [b]@publicfade[/b]
He is on Boston College tonight and leaned Virginia...
re: 29/1/MMXIII Basketball Bet Thread: admins don't like good luck edition-pg4 NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/29/13 at 7:12 pm
How do y'all feel about the Pelicans tonight? Take em at +8?? #Publicfade...
re: 29/1/MMXIII Basketball Bet Thread: admins don't like good luck edition-pg4 NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/29/13 at 1:24 pm
And a date with Peyton Manning!...
re: 29/1/MMXIII Basketball Bet Thread: admins don't like good luck edition-pg4 NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/29/13 at 1:16 pm
Tails never fails!...
re: 29/1/MMXIII Basketball Bet Thread: admins don't like good luck edition-pg4 NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/29/13 at 1:16 pm
Have you looked at the NC/BC game? Heavy public on NC tonight as of now. Any value?...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:48 pm
I was betting like I had a $10,000 bankroll. But I was ignorant to the 1% philosophy. 1 unit should equal 1% of the money you are willing to lose. Now I am betting a smaller bankroll!!...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:47 pm
Ohh, it is nice when you are winning, but college football is not always the kindest!!...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:45 pm
Meaning I was betting $100/ game. $100 was my 1 unit and I loss my arse pretty quick!!!...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:41 pm
Me too. When I started I made the mistake of betting a $10,000 bankroll and got in trouble real quick. Let's just say I reevaluated some things and am betting within my means.
I'm betting around 60 picks per month as well and sometimes think that is way too much and stressful....
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:28 pm
FINAL Part 4
Why Volume Matters
Quick math quiz:
You bet 10 games/month at $100/game. You win 60%.
Win $600 – Loss $440 (loss plus juice) = $160 net win
You bet 100 games/month at $100/game. You win 55%.
Win $5500 – Loss $4950 (loss plus juice) = $550 net win
While 100 games/month seems l...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:27 pm
Part 3
The Importance of Locals
Every town in America has a “local guy”. For those that are outside the US, there are all kinds of casinos that offer lines of credit. Unless you’re in Vegas, that’s not currently possible for sports betting (and frankly I’ve never investigated getting a marker ...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:27 pm
Part 2
How I got to a $30k bankroll
If you’re not in a position where you have $10k you can start with, look at your budget and ask yourself what a monthly amount you can afford to lose would be and annualize that number. If it’s $500, I would annualize that number to $6,000 and I would save up...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:26 pm
FYI.. A little wisdom from sportscheetah. PART 1
Bankroll Creation &Management, The Importance of Locals, and Why Volume Matters
Bankroll Truth and Basics
There’s an ugly truth about sports gambling. Everyone preaches “bankroll management”. You’ve heard people say a million times “one unit...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 9:22 pm
We shall battle through it!! I like to look at weekly results versus the daily approach.
The daily results was giving me ulcers! Week is early lets get it back little by little!!
Mac, does your system account for teams that are on a long road stretch and are tired and weary? ...
re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted by BGUT on 1/28/13 at 7:37 pm
DG, I think your right! I believe once that 9 came out on the WVU game, the sharps ate that up with large bets so it went down to 8 and then the public gobbled Kansas at 8. Vegas probably likes where they are at that number and is willing to take that "risk"
...
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