OrdainedMoney

Can you provide an example of when your sources were true?

Holy

If we go down 14-3 in the first quarter and it's raining, I'm 100% leaving lmao

We are #20 now. If we beat #3 A&M this weekend, we likely jump to #14, 15 at worst. If we then lose to Bama, we likely fall back to 20-21ish. As long as its not a complete arse kicking, the committee won't penalize us very much for losing a close game away against a top 5 opponent. So then you are at 20, you beat Arkansas and WKU over the next two weeks. Others continue losing, maybe you've inched back up to 15-16 at this point. After all, you are 3 loss SEC team with a top 5 win and all of your loses are away games against top 10 opponents. You start to stack up well against even some out of conference two loss teams. You then go into Norman and you beat a top 15 (or maybe top 10) Oklahoma team. Does that put you into the top 12? I think it very well may and it wouldn't be that crazy. I think this does hinge on Oklahoma having a decent ranking when we play them though. There are already so many 2 loss teams this year, way more than this point last year. Same with 1 loss teams. I think this is the year a 3-loss SEC team sneaks in.

People are going to downvote me here, but they are going to be bringing up the same exact scenario on Sunday if we beat A&M (we are only 2.5pt underdogs, so it's not an insane thing to say).

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Franklin, Gruden, Cignetti, Lane, Sumrall, Vandy coach, USF coach

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Franklin - A light years worse "big game" record than BK. This dude constantly underperformed and you'd have to pay him a lot

Gruden - Hasn't coached in forever and is honestly more of a figure head in media than anything. Would he for sure be in on LSU in the long-term? Idk

Lan - Has not sniffed a playoff in his life

Sumrall - Maybe, sure

Vandy Coach - Still under contract and he loves coaching at Vandy, they are going to pay him a ton to stay, is it really worth matching?

USF Coach - Maybe, sure. That is a risk and he's not guaranteed to actually outperform Kelly

If we quite the bitching for five seconds, genuinely. Kiffin? He has never sniffed a playoff and has constantly choked when he's had the chance. Franklin? Who is basically just BK 2.0, a northerner who underperforms in big games. Do we take a risk on a smaller school coach like Sumrall? Maybe, but there is a decent chance you end up like UF and Napier.

The reality is that Kelly is still objectively one of the winningest coaches that will give you a high floor. Who's available right now that is better than Kelly and will for sure take us to the next level? I get why everyone is mad, but right now we're probably better off using that buyout money for continued NIL investment.

I mean what are we talking about here? A little two day trip to the panhandle? If so, whatever. Or did he fly out to Aruba for the week?

Judging in terms of material outperformance / underperformance against expectations going into a game as well as how big / important the game was. I count 5 overperformances vs.9 underperformances where we were all genuinely shocked and/or very disappointed at the results.

Outperformance:

#7 Ole Miss (2022) - Very solid Ole Miss team that we beat by 25
#6 Bama (2022) - 14 pt dogs. Great win
@ #21 Missouri (2023) - Won by 10 points against a solid Missouri team on the road
#9 Ole Miss (2024) - Gutsy win where I think Kiffin was genuinely outcoached in the 2nd half
@ #4 Clemson (2025) - I know they are bad now, but this was still a gutsy win and overcame the opening week hump

Underperformance:

FSU (2022) - we were favorites, but we lost in a huge season opener
Tennessee (2022) - destroyed
A&M (2022) - destroyed
FSU (2023) - lost by 21 even though we were only slight dogs. Another opener
USC (2024) - Were favorites and lost by a touchdown. They ended up being bad this year too
A&M (2024) - Got our arse beat. Kelly had no answer
Alabama (2024) - Holy
Florida (2024) - Pitiful coaching performance. Lost to an unranked UF team by double digits.
Vandy (2025) - Technically we were dogs, but truly felt like a "must win" and Kelly was purely outcoached against a less talented team

Caveats: I didn't include Bama 2023. We were decently sized dogs and Daniels was knocked out early 3rd quarter, that's tough. Also I think Ole Miss in 2023 we were slight dogs as well. Lost on last play of the game. Also didn't include Ole Miss 2025. While sort of disappointing, they are a solid team, it was a close game on the road.

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That’s the flaw in your logic.

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It's called a hypothetical, that I'm proposing. It's not my prediction

The problem here of course is that Oklahoma could be unranked by the time we play them. They still have OM, @ Tenn, @ Bama, and Mizzou before playing us. But a 9-3 SEC team with a few strong wins late in the year and losses to only top 15 teams (Bama, OM, Vandy) is not a bad look at all.

The AP in week 9 of 2024 had 14 1-loss teams, currently there are 20 1-loss teams in there now. Last year at this point there were 3 2-loss teams, there are now 7 2-loss teams this week. It's becoming increasingly likely that there will be a few 3 loss teams that crack the top 12.

Obviously fire Brian Kelly and everything, but I hate to break it to y'all a win against A&M and a close loss to Bama means we are probably still in the top 20. If we rattle off three in a row and cap it off with a top 20 win @ Oklahoma, we could very well be in and it wouldn't be the craziest thing ever.

Edit: so judging by the comments, no one is capable of understanding hypotheticals and actually thinks that I am saying LsU will win 4 of our next 5