Sli Guy Ry

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Do you share any of those concerns of Mintak being a con? His background does appear concerning which was brought out from the short reports.

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His past is colorful to say the least, but do I think there's malicious intent to mislead or con investors? Absolutely not. They may have oversold the timeline and ease of things, but I don't think it was intentional to pump and dump the stock.

TLDR: I think what you are looking for needs to come in the form of the DFS. I think anything “unofficial” would be met with the same skepticism that persists after the short reports.

But I get where you are coming from. I think we all want them to release something that finally gets them the publicity they deserve, leading to retail and institutional investors coming in and bringing the share price closer to where it should be.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s going to happen until the DFS. The short reports did a great job of accomplishing their goal to cast doubt on anything Mintak or SLI say, or have ever said. There needs to be some show of validation by a third party to lift the clouds of doubt.

SLI has said they achieved 90% Li recovery from the brine. The short reports used irrelevant data to paint a picture SLI lied, and now SLI is being sued over it. SLI still used a 90% recovery rate as the design criteria for the Lanxess plant. :dunno:

SLI has said they have converted their LiCl solution into >99.985% carbonate 2 different ways (SiFT and an existing industry standard). In order to de-risk the Lanxess project, they are going to go with the industry standard.

They have said they have completed the process from start to finish successfully, and I think any press release they tried to make about it now would still be met with “Mintak is a conman”, “pump and dump”, “but how much have they produced”, etc.

So back to your comment, I think the value and publicity start to catch up over the next 6 months. I think the SWA PFS will provide a little bump, but maybe not as much as it should. I think the Lanxess DFS will provide a little bigger bump as people start to see the writing on the wall. I think a combination of the following would provide that “external validation” and would finally get us where we want to be; FID is a go, Lanxess deciding to buy back in for 49%, government grant. Then I think we will get accurate value added from the expansion and strategic partner PR’s. There will probably still be some doubters until they start selling.

To me, the outstanding questions are not related to if their process “works”, but how quickly does the sorbent degrade over time (something they are still gathering data on), and how does the sorbent perform with changes to the brine feedstock, such as brine with the bromine still in it like at SWA (which they are also testing). Those will affect how profitable this company can be. I think we will get our answers to these in the SWA PFS and the Lanxess DFS.

I believe their previous excuse was waiting on third parties. With all the moving parts, it sounds like they are just bad at estimating their timelines. It is hard to tell if the processes just take longer than expected, or there was an issue. The lack of communication leads people to think there was an issue. Their solution appears to be just expanding their timeframe estimates from specific months, to quarters, to halves. :lol:

I’ll go ahead re-present the bull thesis for those who are feeling left out that SLI didn’t get picked for the dance.

This funding was only 2.8 out of a designated 7bln from the 2021 Infrastructure bill. There is still plenty to go around. SLI does not have a project to build yet. Do not be surprised if SLI announces some money around the time of the FID in mid-2023. Also, do not be surprised if SLI ends up receiving even more as their projects get rolling. I agree with Smack, the ESG requirements can be BS, but if they can get away with the bare minimum that does not affect business operations, it would be worth it. One company that received $100mil promised "location-based action through equity-centered community engagement efforts." With SLI already entrenched in the El Dorado community, that would not be a far stretch.

SLI still has the opportunity to be the first new US sourced DLE lithium plant that did not piss off tribes, environmentalists, or the locals in the process. The government will want to tie their name and money to it and take some credit as a win for their agenda.

A few other topics for discussion…

-The FEED study will be used to produce a NI 43-101 DFS report. “The purpose of NI 43-101 is to ensure that misleading, erroneous or fraudulent information relating to mineral properties is not published and promoted to investors.” The design criteria for the FEED study is a 90% lithium recovery rate. Since the pilot plant is the basis for this study, I feel if the pilot plant was extracting at something like 65%, the design criteria would reflect that. Even if the commercial facilities do not reach 90%, it is hard to see how their projects are not economical to a degree that is multiples higher than the current market cap.

-I think the DFS will also show positive news on costs. The cash operating costs from the 2019 PEA, $4,319/t, does not reflect any efficiencies gained in the past 3 years at the pilot plant. Along with a revised selling price estimate, I expect this project to be north of $2bln NPV. Hopefully in due time, Mintak receives a little kudos for the re-worked Lanxess split.

-On the upcoming SWA (Tetra) PFS, I hope SLI is not overly conservative on the pricing forecast. While Goldman Sachs laughably predicts the price of lithium will crash below $20k/t before the end of this year, industry experts do not see the price getting below $20k/t ever again. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this as a $5bln+ NPV project if they use a selling price estimate of around $26k/t. We will also see what effects inflation has had on the estimated CAPEX/OPEX. I am also looking forward to the next steps and timeline on this project. Government money sure could speed some things up. One would expect this announcement in 1Q2023 to move the share price a bit, but it may get dismissed again because a short report said Mintak is a conman.

-A reminder that for better or worse, all of their lithium is already spoken for between Lanxess and Koch at a market adjusted price. I find it re-assuring, but we missed out on the splashy headline of an offtake agreement.

-I know Galvanic has been discussed here before, and they are still sitting over there with 115,000 acres of Smackover brine with the highest lithium concentration known in the formation. I like to believe this is what SLI has been referring to as “Other development projects being investigated by the Company.” Dr. Robinson referenced a mysterious project on a podcast a while ago, and it has shown up in a few PRs, including the re-worked Lanxess deal where SLI gets to utilize their IP and extraction technology at the SWA (Tetra) project and “certain other sites in Arkansas, and at all project sites outside of Arkansas”. With SLI already extracting from the same brine at a high recovery rate, it seems like a no brainer to partner. The added value of this project for SLI would depend on the split with Galvanic, but it could easily be billions.

Open to hear your thoughts and feedback. The billion dollar question is what finally gets SLI to “click” in the eyes of investors. The DFS/FID? Govnt money? Actual production? For those of you hesitant or bearish on the company, what would it take for you feel like this is the lithium company to buy?

I agree with most here that management is frustratingly silent, and the “trust us” mentality they are using doesn’t really work after being accused of conmen. But the risk/reward, especially at these prices, seems too good to pass up.

TLDR: SLI may appear late to the party, but I still think she becomes the belle of the ball.