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One Through Ten
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Lafayette |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 2 |
| Registered on: | 7/12/2022 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Some Perspective on the QB Situation
Posted by One Through Ten on 12/29/22 at 3:21 pm to Drayton80
The Tebow comparison was just to challenge the narrative going around this place that JD had a mediocre year. That's just empirically false. He had a very good year. I'd still obviously rather have Tim Tebow as our qb.
That said, you're fixating on the Tebow comparison here and ignoring the one that actually matters: JD vs Nuss. Obviously Nuss hasn't had a ton of playing time the past two years, but taken as a whole his performance has been below average.
JD doesn't have to be better than Tebow, he has to better than Nuss. And so far he has been by a wide margin. He's made plenty of mistakes, of course, but are we so sure benching him for Nuss wouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater?
That said, you're fixating on the Tebow comparison here and ignoring the one that actually matters: JD vs Nuss. Obviously Nuss hasn't had a ton of playing time the past two years, but taken as a whole his performance has been below average.
JD doesn't have to be better than Tebow, he has to better than Nuss. And so far he has been by a wide margin. He's made plenty of mistakes, of course, but are we so sure benching him for Nuss wouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater?
0
Some Perspective on the QB Situation
Posted by One Through Ten on 12/29/22 at 2:00 pm
It seems like some of the commentary on this site regarding the qb situation has gone off the rails a little a bit, so I thought I’d try and add a little perspective to the discussion with some stats comparison.
JD 2022
P: 254-371 (68.5%) for 2774 yds (7.5 ypa) 16 TDs 3 INTs R: 180 for 818 yds (4.5 ypa) 11 TDs
Now compare that to these two single season statlines
P: 192-298 (64.4%) for 2746 yds (9.2 ypa) 30 TDs 4 INTs R: 176 for 673 yds (3.8 ypa) 12 TDs
P: 213-314 (67.8%) for 2895 yds (9.2 ypa) 21 TDs 5 INTs R: 217 for 910 yds (4.2 ypa) 14 TDs
Three very similar seasons. JD accounted for 3592 total yds and the two mystery seasons accounted for 3419 and 3805 respectively.
Here’s the kicker: the two mystery seasons are Tim Tebow’s junior and senior years at Florida. The only significant difference between his stats and Jayden’s (besides the fact that both the 2008 and 2009 statlines come from 14 game seasons while JD has only played 13 games) are his passing TDs in 2008. Over that stretch, Tebow went to New York twice and UF won a natty, a sugar bowl, went 1-1 in the SEC championship, and went 13-1 both seasons (ironically Tebow’s Heisman season in 2007 was UF’s worst record while he was there, 9-4). The point being, JD is already performing at a high enough level to win a national championship.
Now compare that to Nussmeier’s performance this year and last year:
2022: P: 41-69 (59.4%) for 627 yds (9.1 ypa) 3 TDs 3 INTs R: 1 for -13 yds
2021: P: 29-57 (50.9%) for 329 yds (5.8 ypa) 5 TDs 5 INTs R: 5 for -46 yds
Nuss’ arm strength and willingness to take shots down the field give him a slight advantage over JD in terms of yards per attempt (9.1 to 7.5). But that is not enough to compensate for his completion percentage being 10% lower than JD’s, his INT count being the same as JD’s despite him having less than 1/5 the attempts, or the fact that he poses 0 run threat.
None of this is meant to be a knock on Nuss. And it’s possible he’ll have a great offseason/spring and win the starting job. But as it stands right now, in terms of measurable performance, JD is lightyears ahead of him. If we can fix our special teams problems and improve our fundamentals on the O-line and the defense, there is no reason this team can’t make a playoff run with JD as the qb next year. It doesn’t make sense to derail that momentum with some contrived qb controversy.
JD 2022
P: 254-371 (68.5%) for 2774 yds (7.5 ypa) 16 TDs 3 INTs R: 180 for 818 yds (4.5 ypa) 11 TDs
Now compare that to these two single season statlines
P: 192-298 (64.4%) for 2746 yds (9.2 ypa) 30 TDs 4 INTs R: 176 for 673 yds (3.8 ypa) 12 TDs
P: 213-314 (67.8%) for 2895 yds (9.2 ypa) 21 TDs 5 INTs R: 217 for 910 yds (4.2 ypa) 14 TDs
Three very similar seasons. JD accounted for 3592 total yds and the two mystery seasons accounted for 3419 and 3805 respectively.
Here’s the kicker: the two mystery seasons are Tim Tebow’s junior and senior years at Florida. The only significant difference between his stats and Jayden’s (besides the fact that both the 2008 and 2009 statlines come from 14 game seasons while JD has only played 13 games) are his passing TDs in 2008. Over that stretch, Tebow went to New York twice and UF won a natty, a sugar bowl, went 1-1 in the SEC championship, and went 13-1 both seasons (ironically Tebow’s Heisman season in 2007 was UF’s worst record while he was there, 9-4). The point being, JD is already performing at a high enough level to win a national championship.
Now compare that to Nussmeier’s performance this year and last year:
2022: P: 41-69 (59.4%) for 627 yds (9.1 ypa) 3 TDs 3 INTs R: 1 for -13 yds
2021: P: 29-57 (50.9%) for 329 yds (5.8 ypa) 5 TDs 5 INTs R: 5 for -46 yds
Nuss’ arm strength and willingness to take shots down the field give him a slight advantage over JD in terms of yards per attempt (9.1 to 7.5). But that is not enough to compensate for his completion percentage being 10% lower than JD’s, his INT count being the same as JD’s despite him having less than 1/5 the attempts, or the fact that he poses 0 run threat.
None of this is meant to be a knock on Nuss. And it’s possible he’ll have a great offseason/spring and win the starting job. But as it stands right now, in terms of measurable performance, JD is lightyears ahead of him. If we can fix our special teams problems and improve our fundamentals on the O-line and the defense, there is no reason this team can’t make a playoff run with JD as the qb next year. It doesn’t make sense to derail that momentum with some contrived qb controversy.
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