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AmericanPsycho99
| Favorite team: | |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | Financial professional |
| Number of Posts: | 121 |
| Registered on: | 9/3/2021 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 8:12 pm to BFIV
quote:
And just how much oil a day does the US import after Biden has been President for 10 months?
Probably will reach around 8.86 million at the end of this year.
Last year's net import balance being negative was purely demand driven. Demand dropped in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Refineries have been slow to open up, which has resulted in prices rising. This isn't US specific, which was my point.
1
re: My Generation (Millenials) is stuck in perpetual childhood
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 8:07 pm to burger bearcat
Do you talk to the average millennial?
I think you're living in an internet bubble.
Outside of vocal internet users, nobody gives a damn about that. People who watch TikTok are not millennials but people under 20 (Gen Z).
Get off the internet/twitter and talk to most millennials in real life.
I think you're living in an internet bubble.
Outside of vocal internet users, nobody gives a damn about that. People who watch TikTok are not millennials but people under 20 (Gen Z).
Get off the internet/twitter and talk to most millennials in real life.
re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 8:03 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
We were oil independent. What is happening globally should have had no effect on us whatsoever
Where on earth is this coming from?
WE WERE NOT OIL INDEPENDENT AND NEVER HAVE BEEN OIL INDEPENDENT
The US imports around 8 million barrels of crude oil a day and did so under Trump and Obama. If the US was oil independent, we would not be importing 8 million barrels of crude oil (for reference, the US consumes 19 million barrels of crude oil a day) a day.
:banghead:
Who the hell is telling you to parrot this stuff? It doesn't even make any sense logically.
The crude oil net import became negative in 2020 (imports - exports) but that's nowhere near the same thing as saying we were oil independent. That's just saying we exported more oil than we imported.
The reason prices are rising globally is because demand is rising globally and refineries have been slow to start back up.
Biden's policies such as cancelling a pipeline affect future prices (building a pipeline takes a long time), not prices in the short-run. Oil markets move in the short-run, not the long-run.
The rise in US gas prices started in May of 2020 which suggests that the price rise is supply-demand driven.
re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:55 pm to BFIV
quote:
I could care less how much gas costs the rest of the world. That's their problem. We were self sufficient in oil and energy this time last year and gas was $1.75/gal or thereabout nationally. Trump's energy policy helped make that possible. Yes, Biden bears a lot of the blame after reversing Trump's energy policy. You did this, Joe. Now own it.
I want you to think about how moronic this sounds. We were never self-sufficient in oil and energy - the US imported around 8 million barrels of oil a day in 2020. The number of refineries in the US has declined from 1900 in 2012 to around 450 in 2020. The decline continued under Obama and Trump.
It has nothing to do with Trump's energy policies. Gas prices were low because there was less demand and supply exceeded demand during the pandemic.
Look at this graph that shows the correlation between retail oil prices and WTI crude. Oil and gas prices started to rise in May of 2020 when demand for oil picked back up. There's been a shortage of supply since 2020 since refineries have been slow to open back up.
Biden cancelling a pipeline doesn't determine the prices *now.* It may have an impact in the future but oil markets respond to what happens in the short-run, not the long-run.
The rest of the world has also had rising gas prices for this reason alone.
re: My Generation (Millenials) is stuck in perpetual childhood
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:38 pm to dgnx6
Zuck is the only young one.
Musk is 50. The guy may enjoy dating 30-year-old women but he's not a millennial. The guy's older than my Dad.
By boomer, I just meant older than a millennial.
But the median CEO is 54-years-old. They're approaching the retirement years, not just in their late 30s.
Musk is 50. The guy may enjoy dating 30-year-old women but he's not a millennial. The guy's older than my Dad.
By boomer, I just meant older than a millennial.
But the median CEO is 54-years-old. They're approaching the retirement years, not just in their late 30s.
re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:35 pm to roadGator
I'm not a finance grad.
I'm working at a fixed income fund so mainly trading asset-backed securities and bonds.
I'm working at a fixed income fund so mainly trading asset-backed securities and bonds.
re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:33 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Once you have been on the job 30 days, you don't get to blame your predecessor anymore.
I don't think it's his predecessor's fault either.
Central banks have caused this which is why inflation is occurring globally.
re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:32 pm to msudawg1200
Politifact markes 'Joe Biden causing inflation' as mostly false
This is basic economics.
2/3 of government spending was in 2020.
You're not going to see inflation from any spending Biden's done 3 months after a bill is passed. If spending was the cause of inflation, it would be from spending passed more than a year ago.
Klenow is a professor of Economics at Stanford University.
This is basic economics.
2/3 of government spending was in 2020.
You're not going to see inflation from any spending Biden's done 3 months after a bill is passed. If spending was the cause of inflation, it would be from spending passed more than a year ago.
quote:
"Estimates of the effects of government spending in earlier years typically find a lag of a year or two between the spending and any noticeable effect on inflation," Klenow said.
Klenow is a professor of Economics at Stanford University.
re: Democrats control the House, Senate and White House...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:24 pm to BradPitt
How many times does this have to be repeated?
There's plenty of things Biden should be criticized for.
Gas prices are rising globally. It has very little to do with Biden.
Groceries and bills are rising because asset prices have been inflated through quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve has brought over $4.5 trillion in securities over the past year, which has increased the price of bonds and lowered bond yields. This was occurring under both Trump and Biden. The Federal Reserve has not wanted to raise interest rates because they've wanted to encourage borrowing to stop markets from crashing.
This has very little to do with Biden but America's addiction to low interest rates.
There's plenty of things Biden should be criticized for.
Gas prices are rising globally. It has very little to do with Biden.
Groceries and bills are rising because asset prices have been inflated through quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve has brought over $4.5 trillion in securities over the past year, which has increased the price of bonds and lowered bond yields. This was occurring under both Trump and Biden. The Federal Reserve has not wanted to raise interest rates because they've wanted to encourage borrowing to stop markets from crashing.
This has very little to do with Biden but America's addiction to low interest rates.
re: My Generation (Millenials) is stuck in perpetual childhood
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:19 pm to roadGator
Argue the point and you'll get a response.
You've randomly brought up a press secretary as if she has control over the levers of power. From news organizations to charities, older people are making the decisions.
You've randomly brought up a press secretary as if she has control over the levers of power. From news organizations to charities, older people are making the decisions.
re: My Generation (Millenials) is stuck in perpetual childhood
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:17 pm to roadGator
quote:
Look at the mean mugging picture of Psaki and all the low level underlings.
Look at the President of the US and the previous President of the US.
Youthful men they are not. Being 77 (time of Biden's inauguration) and 71 (I think Trump was 71 at the time of inauguration) are not millennials.
Older people control the levers of power. Look at any financial institution CEO, corporate CEO, and the senate/house. The median senator is 65-years-old today, which means 50 senators are over the age of 65.
Older people do drive our society.
re: My Generation (Millenials) is stuck in perpetual childhood
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 7:12 pm to burger bearcat
quote:
But this is a completely un-serious country right now, and the millenials are the ones driving the clown car.
Who do you think is at the top of these institutions? It isn't millennials. Boomers are the ones who drive society.
quote:
Why would someone with this lifestyle care about things like China, the border, civil liberties, manufacturing jobs, independent energy, or safe neighborhoods? They have the luxury to place stupid shite high on the priority list, it gives them a purpose in life. And it fricks everyone else including their own future.
Lmao, you're the only enlightened millenial to exist. /s
Every millennial thinks they're unique and born in the wrong generation - you're fitting the stereotype.
re: Uncorrelated ETFs - any suggestions that aren't bonds/commodities?
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 6:37 pm to slackster
quote:
The tough part about this is that you’re going to be looking at 10-20 year correlations in an effort to avoid high inflation that was 40 years ago - it’s apples to oranges.
For some alternative ETFs, it's not even 10 years. I found one ETF that has the explicit purpose of providing uncorrelated returns but even then, the data only goes back 3 years. It's looking good so far but 3 years is hardly any time to conclude that it's working.
:banghead:
I've found some low correlation consumer staples that are uncorrelated but the drawdowns are still significant. The data for them goes back to 1994 which again, is still not representative of a high inflation environment.
quote:
companies with rising dividends.
I'll look at some data I can find tomorrow on our internal database.
re: COVID vaccine evading variant is here.
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 6:25 pm to GumboPot
quote:
You realize that low R rate viruses tend to be more deadly, right?
Yes, I understand that. That's exactly why it doesn't become an issue. The virus cannot spread, which is why even though it initially kills people, it stops.
And it's not an exact relationship. You can have low-mortality low R rate virus strains as well as high-mortality high R rate virus strains. One does not mean the other.
Nothing I've seen suggests that A.30 is a big problem so far. As someone said above, I'm not even sure it's been a big problem so far and it's been around since June.
re: Kelli Ward and Mark Finchem say Pima County AZ had 100.6% voter turnout for 2020 GE...
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 6:22 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
Oh I know, some Marxists will say same day registration is how the voter turnout clipped 100% but it's interesting to note, there wasn't one Republican controlled precinct that I'm aware of that got more than 85% voter turnout in the whole United States and I believe there were several counties/precincts under Dim control that checked in at over 90%. Interestedly enough, many of these counties with exceptionally high voter turnout just happened to be in key swing states.
At this point, you must be joking, right?
There are plenty of Republican counties that got more than 85% turnout.
St Croix County, Wisconsin - 85.4% - Republican/Republican-controlled
Livingston County, Michigan - 85.6% - Republican/Republican-controlled
At this point, this is a meme. Do the research before you say something idiotic.
Whiter counties had higher turnout and those counties skewed towards Trump. Rural, white counties had some of the highest turnouts in the US and they tended to be dominated by Republicans.
re: COVID vaccine evading variant is here.
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 6:12 pm to GumboPot
I did the work and read the paper. On reading the paper, it's not as alarmist as the guy is suggesting.
The paper itself noted that a heterologous treatment would possibly offer robust protection against the A.30 variant. The paper also doesn't offer any data on whether the A.30 variant spreads easily - if it has a low R rate, it's nothing to be concerned about. If the variant has a high R rate, then there's something to be concerned about. At this point though, it's nothing to be alarmed about and the paper notes that there have been other variants that are also fairly resistant (and haven't caused any problems so far).
Good read but I wouldn't be that alarmist. As someone noted above, A.30 hasn't been a big problem so far and it's been around for some time now. Neither have the other variants mentioned in the paper.
Paper here if anyone wants to read it
The paper itself noted that a heterologous treatment would possibly offer robust protection against the A.30 variant. The paper also doesn't offer any data on whether the A.30 variant spreads easily - if it has a low R rate, it's nothing to be concerned about. If the variant has a high R rate, then there's something to be concerned about. At this point though, it's nothing to be alarmed about and the paper notes that there have been other variants that are also fairly resistant (and haven't caused any problems so far).
quote:
heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/BNT162b2 vaccination, which was previously shown to augment neutralizing antibody responses against VOCs compared to corresponding homologous vaccinations [7, 10], might offer robust protection against the A.30 variant
Good read but I wouldn't be that alarmist. As someone noted above, A.30 hasn't been a big problem so far and it's been around for some time now. Neither have the other variants mentioned in the paper.
Paper here if anyone wants to read it
re: Washington Free Beacon - The Two American Countercultures -
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 5:28 pm to Logician
quote:
those are liberal principles?
I'm fairly sure if you interviewed most corporate executives pre-Trump, they'd have said they were Republican.
Heck, go to any financial firm pre-Trump and pretty much everyone was a Republican (economically conservative, socially liberal). People liked Mitt Romney.
Not sure that corporations are on the 'liberal' side of anything if most of the management wouldn't identify themselves as being liberal.
The wealthy elite aren't on the left - most wealthy people want lower taxes so they vote for the right. They're just not vocal about it.
re: What’s the Difference Between Bush’s High Gas Prices Vs Biden’s now?
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 5:17 pm to furrydogs
quote:
You haven't been on here long but your holier than thou and I'm the ultimate authority attitude is already wearing thin. The Saudis were partly responsible, but when you have an administration openly hostile to the O&G industry along with its minions in the governors' mansions, you'll eventually have a retrenchment in the industry.
Nonsense.
Everyone here is asserting that Biden is to blame when anyone who's remotely involved in finance could tell you that Biden really isn't that much to blame.
quote:
The annual average rig count peaked at 1,919 in 2012 and hit a record low of 433 in 2020, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1988.
So the number of rigs was declining from 2012 onwards? How does this at all prove your point that Biden is to blame?
2012 is when the Saudis began driving down prices, which meant that American producers couldn't compete. That would suggest there are global macro factors to blame here, not Biden.
quote:
I would have to believe that the O&G industry would have a lot more rigs firing up if they ne that the regulatory environment wasn't stacked against them. (Search what that dope governor in Michigan is trying to do with a pipeline coming in from Canada)
You're speculating. You've got to make the leap between this and global oil prices being low. The price of oil has risen everywhere from India to France. The US is around 16% of global oil production but it's nowhere near the majority producer. Prices have risen globally - Biden's not to blame for this at all.
re: What’s the Difference Between Bush’s High Gas Prices Vs Biden’s now?
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 4:51 pm to Azkiger
quote:
Which had little effect on America since we produced and processed the vast majority of our own oil.
It has a big effect. In order to compete, American producers have to lower their prices. Think about what you're saying here - there would be so many arbitrage opportunities if the price of a barrel of oil was different in America versus another country. Oil is a trade-able good.
If the price of oil was different globally versus the US at the time of Saudis driving down the price, people would buy barrels of oil in the US and sell them abroad (or vice-versa). This would equalize the prices through arbitrage. The oil industry is tradeable (i.e. arbitrage opportunities exist) because transportation is cheap.
quote:
Yes, and there's a common denominator amongst Western countries. They're all pursuing green policies.
This is a global phenomenon not restricted to the US. Prices globally have risen. India, a country that doesn't really give a damn about green energy, has suffered from rising prices as well. It has nothing to do with green policies - if you were an oil trader, you'd know this.
quote:
Its cheaper than hauling by rail. Transportation costs are factored into the prices we pay at the pump.
Oil prices in India at a record high
Transportation isn't that expensive. It costs around $5 to transport a barrel of oil - that's $0.11 per gallon. Building a new pipeline isn't going to change the price. The main costs of oil is extraction, not transportation. Transportation is cheap whether it be by rail ($0.22 per gallon) or by pipeline ($0.11 per gallon).
quote:
It's just a giant coincidence....
Which is why oil prices are rising across the globe? It's not Biden otherwise it would have been a US specific issue.
re: Harvard Pre-med Student Quits School - guess why?
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 4:41 pm to GhostOfFreedom
quote:
I am sure there is more to the story. She was probably ready to quit or about to get kicked out.
From friends who go there, it's very, very hard to be kicked out. You must have really, really messed up to be kicked out - Harvard is hard to get in but hard to fail out. There's going to be more to the story but she could have switched to an 'easy' concentration and got a Harvard degree anyway.
They've got high grade inflation which means the median Harvard grade is an A.
I think it might be mental illness.
re: Fox News outdraws MSNBC, CNN combined for 10th straight week
Posted by AmericanPsycho99 on 10/26/21 at 4:38 pm to L.A.
Hasn't this been the case for a long time?
People who are conservative tend to be older -> Older people watch Cable news -> Old people watch Fox News.
Young people don't really watch cable whether they're liberal or conservative. Liberals lean younger so it makes sense that fewer watch CNN/MSNBC.
People who are conservative tend to be older -> Older people watch Cable news -> Old people watch Fox News.
Young people don't really watch cable whether they're liberal or conservative. Liberals lean younger so it makes sense that fewer watch CNN/MSNBC.
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