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sneezeprupandgold
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 18 |
| Registered on: | 10/27/2019 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
Simulations have us winning the natty
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 12/9/19 at 9:16 am
shorturl.at/ijoKT
Peach Bowl
LSU 38 - 33 Oklahoma
shorturl.at/kmMN1
Fiesta Bowl
OSU 35 - 16 Clemson
shorturl.at/bFUV4
National Title
LSU 45 - 38 Ohio State
shorturl.at/jvGU1
Granted this is just a series of simulations based on the season up to this point and the stats each team has put up so far. I will say though that its a pretty thorough system. The stat lines for each game individually are in the link but those are just 1 game out of the series of simulations. What I find way more interesting is that LSU beat Oklahoma by an average score of 40.1-37.7 over the course 1648 simulations, winning 54.7% of the time. Ohio State beat Clemson by an average score of 29.5-25.9 over the course of 3691 simulations, winning 58.4 % of the time. And lastly, LSU beat Ohio State by an insanely tight average score of 31.3-30.1 over the course of 2371 simulations which puts LSU beating OSU 50.9% of the time.
Obviously these are all just made up numbers and projections but if you like stats and projections as much as I do, enjoy.
Just a heads up, if you use the links under the games it will give you a different score every time. It's just pulling stats and scores from 1 of the tons of simulations.
Peach Bowl
LSU 38 - 33 Oklahoma
shorturl.at/kmMN1
Fiesta Bowl
OSU 35 - 16 Clemson
shorturl.at/bFUV4
National Title
LSU 45 - 38 Ohio State
shorturl.at/jvGU1
Granted this is just a series of simulations based on the season up to this point and the stats each team has put up so far. I will say though that its a pretty thorough system. The stat lines for each game individually are in the link but those are just 1 game out of the series of simulations. What I find way more interesting is that LSU beat Oklahoma by an average score of 40.1-37.7 over the course 1648 simulations, winning 54.7% of the time. Ohio State beat Clemson by an average score of 29.5-25.9 over the course of 3691 simulations, winning 58.4 % of the time. And lastly, LSU beat Ohio State by an insanely tight average score of 31.3-30.1 over the course of 2371 simulations which puts LSU beating OSU 50.9% of the time.
Obviously these are all just made up numbers and projections but if you like stats and projections as much as I do, enjoy.
Just a heads up, if you use the links under the games it will give you a different score every time. It's just pulling stats and scores from 1 of the tons of simulations.
7
re: This moment between Clyde and his dad......... Onions
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/11/19 at 7:31 am to SuperFanDan
incredible moment and it couldn't have happened for a better man. The woman on trying to get a picture, on the other hand... Dear God lady get it together and have some awareness
re: Alabama has to be careful what it wishes for
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/11/19 at 7:28 am to moneyg
It's finally happening 
:nana:
:nana:re: Chase vs Beckham/Landry as Prospects
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/4/19 at 8:40 am to PhillyFan1994
Great player and easily first round imo but I don't know the difference in targets. That would be an interesting stat to look at because there's no way he has more drops than OBJ.
EDIT:
So after comparing stats, here's Jarvis Landry and OBJ's career stats at LSU vs Chase's
Landry: 137 rec, 1809 yards, 15TDs
OBJ: 143 rec, 2340 yards, 12 TDs
Chase: 66 rec, 1062 yards, 12 TDs
Obviously, Chase has another year before he can leave so I did the math on what his stats would be if his receptions were equal to the other two:
Projected stats with 137 receptions, 2204 yards and 25 TDs
Projected stats with 143 receptions, 2301 yards and 26 TDs
So in terms of yardage, he's about on par with OBJ, but out-gaining Landry. In terms of TDs he's throttling both of them
:dude:
EDIT:
So after comparing stats, here's Jarvis Landry and OBJ's career stats at LSU vs Chase's
Landry: 137 rec, 1809 yards, 15TDs
OBJ: 143 rec, 2340 yards, 12 TDs
Chase: 66 rec, 1062 yards, 12 TDs
Obviously, Chase has another year before he can leave so I did the math on what his stats would be if his receptions were equal to the other two:
Projected stats with 137 receptions, 2204 yards and 25 TDs
Projected stats with 143 receptions, 2301 yards and 26 TDs
So in terms of yardage, he's about on par with OBJ, but out-gaining Landry. In terms of TDs he's throttling both of them
:dude:
re: So how are we supposed to function at work this week?
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/4/19 at 6:15 am to SickGainzLP
quote:
My sons birthday party is on saturday too.
How did you let that happen?... At least the baw from the other thread, about his daughter having a dance recital, didn't have a say in it... This is your kids birthday party and yall SCHEDULED it for 11/9. :spank:
re: Allegedly Transgender Woman Gashes 79-Year-Old Man’s Head With Stiletto For Preaching
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/3/19 at 12:01 pm to rowbear1922
quote:
There is a serious mental illness issue in this country
Sin. Everyone's in it and Jesus is the cure. We're beginning to see a revival in reaction to how far the opposite way society has been leaning, in my opinion. As long as God continues to get glory, I don't care how He does it :nana:
re: 7 days from this moment LSU will have a 21-10 lead on Alabama in the 2nd quarter
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/2/19 at 4:14 pm to DRock88
quote:
The defense is about to have a coming out party
Very progressive of you
re: Who are the two teams you want to face in the playoffs? (Assuming we get there)
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/2/19 at 4:11 pm to RadarTiger
Loser mentality. Burrow would have the game of his life against anOSU
re: Who are the two teams you want to face in the playoffs? (Assuming we get there)
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/2/19 at 4:10 pm to 7nette
Whoever has the nads to line up against us. I'll happily watch Joey B derail any team in the country
re: Story on Joe Burrow's jersey number (9 vs 10)?
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 11/2/19 at 1:34 pm to Tigerbiscuits
Stephen Sullivan
re: This idiot ranked us 40 in basketball this season
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/29/19 at 9:50 am to Lsualum2017
preseaon polls are about as useful as tits on a boar hog. Hold tight
re: Gumps or Plainsmen?
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/29/19 at 8:59 am to saint tiger225
yea that'll happen when you gotta take a visit to the terlet after you started making your account. Roommate got his hands on the laptop and absolutely did that on purpose. Oh well
re: Gumps or Plainsmen?
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/29/19 at 8:54 am to Not Cooper
yep you're absolutely right. Knew there was something wrong with my logic
Gumps or Plainsmen?
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/29/19 at 8:47 am
After what we saw last weekend, does anybody else think Auburn has a legitimate shot at upsetting the gumps in Auburn? LSU needs to just win em all and leave no doubt, but I think that game could have much bigger implications than anyone's been talking about. Maybe we're just not there yet but with an LSU win on 11/9, it could determine if the gumps get a playoff bid. With a bama win on 11/9, an upset could mean LSU sits out the SECCG possibly ranked higher than a bama team who has to play a Florida or Georgia team.
Again, if you're LSU, JUST WIN
I may be thinking too far ahead for most people on here so go ahead and downvote away :booboo:
Again, if you're LSU, JUST WIN
I may be thinking too far ahead for most people on here so go ahead and downvote away :booboo:
re: If there was a 16 team playoff
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/27/19 at 9:09 pm to sneezeprupandgold
Good Lord I'm not advocating for the system. I ran a single elimination tournament to see how the computer thinks we would compete with other teams and how far we could make it. Turns out we did just fine but no please throw a fit about it being too big of a tournament. Im not debating if it should be incorporated, I'm just saying I did it and here's the stats. :banghead:
re: If there was a 16 team playoff
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/27/19 at 8:58 pm to sneezeprupandgold
Round 1
1LSU vs 16ND (34-20 LSU)
2Alabama vs 15SMU (31-13 Bama)
3Ohio State vs 14Michigan (19-7 Ohio State)
4Clemson vs 13Minnesota (38-7 Clemson)
5Penn State vs 12Baylor (37-26 Baylor)
6Florida vs 11Auburn (33-16 Auburn)
7Oregon vs 10Oklahoma (38-31 Oklahoma)
8Georgia vs 9Utah (31-5 UGA)
Round 2
LSU vs UGA in Sugar Bowl (41-35 LSU)
Bama vs Oklahoma in Rose Bowl (52-17 Oklahoma)
Ohio State vs Auburn in Cotton Bowl (44-17 Ohio State)
Clemson vs Baylor in Orange Bowl (48-10 Clemson)
Semi-Finals
LSU vs Clemson in Peach Bowl (38-34 LSU)
Ohio State vs Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl (38-35 Ohio State)
National Championship
LSU vs Ohio State (35-14 LSU)
1LSU vs 16ND (34-20 LSU)
2Alabama vs 15SMU (31-13 Bama)
3Ohio State vs 14Michigan (19-7 Ohio State)
4Clemson vs 13Minnesota (38-7 Clemson)
5Penn State vs 12Baylor (37-26 Baylor)
6Florida vs 11Auburn (33-16 Auburn)
7Oregon vs 10Oklahoma (38-31 Oklahoma)
8Georgia vs 9Utah (31-5 UGA)
Round 2
LSU vs UGA in Sugar Bowl (41-35 LSU)
Bama vs Oklahoma in Rose Bowl (52-17 Oklahoma)
Ohio State vs Auburn in Cotton Bowl (44-17 Ohio State)
Clemson vs Baylor in Orange Bowl (48-10 Clemson)
Semi-Finals
LSU vs Clemson in Peach Bowl (38-34 LSU)
Ohio State vs Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl (38-35 Ohio State)
National Championship
LSU vs Ohio State (35-14 LSU)
If there was a 16 team playoff
Posted by sneezeprupandgold on 10/27/19 at 8:51 pm
LINK
No I'm not saying there should be a 16 team playoff (there should be) but if there were it may look something like this...
Ran an unbiased simulation through ncaagamesim.com. Here are some of the notes for LSU:
Burrow: 109/141 (77%) 1326 passing yards, 15 TDs, 1 INT
Edwards-Helaire: 62 attempts for 347 yards and 2TDs
Davis-Price: 27 attempts for 138 yards and a TD
Justin Jefferson: 35 targets for 590 yards and 8 TDs
Ja'Marr Chase: 16 targets for 165 yards and 3 TDs
Defense held opposing QBs to 85/131 (64%) giving up 8 TDs and forcing 9 INTs
Yes, I'm aware that there's rushing stats for Fournette and Myles Brennan... I just ran the simulation and took down the stats so don't kill me
I'll post the scores of the games below. If you're a big stat nerd like me, enjoy
No I'm not saying there should be a 16 team playoff (there should be) but if there were it may look something like this...
Ran an unbiased simulation through ncaagamesim.com. Here are some of the notes for LSU:
Burrow: 109/141 (77%) 1326 passing yards, 15 TDs, 1 INT
Edwards-Helaire: 62 attempts for 347 yards and 2TDs
Davis-Price: 27 attempts for 138 yards and a TD
Justin Jefferson: 35 targets for 590 yards and 8 TDs
Ja'Marr Chase: 16 targets for 165 yards and 3 TDs
Defense held opposing QBs to 85/131 (64%) giving up 8 TDs and forcing 9 INTs
Yes, I'm aware that there's rushing stats for Fournette and Myles Brennan... I just ran the simulation and took down the stats so don't kill me
I'll post the scores of the games below. If you're a big stat nerd like me, enjoy
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