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MLS end of year attendance prediction/projection
Posted on 7/9/12 at 7:48 pm
Posted on 7/9/12 at 7:48 pm
Average attendance: 19,173(18,811 as of July 3rd)
Wasted most of my day doing this.
44,231 Seattle
22,990 Los Angeles
21,798 Montreal
21,513 Houston
20,438 Portland
20,252 New York
19,630 Vancouver
19,561 Kansas City
19,264 Toronto
18,728 Philadelphia
18,728 Salt Lake
16,778 Columbus
15,915 Colorado
15,095 Chicago
14,757 New England
14,313 DC United
14,053 Dallas
13,169 San Jose
13,075 Chivas USA
Would shatter the attendance record of 17,869 set last year by 1,300 a game. Wow. Should be interesting to see how far off I am.
Wasted most of my day doing this.
44,231 Seattle
22,990 Los Angeles
21,798 Montreal
21,513 Houston
20,438 Portland
20,252 New York
19,630 Vancouver
19,561 Kansas City
19,264 Toronto
18,728 Philadelphia
18,728 Salt Lake
16,778 Columbus
15,915 Colorado
15,095 Chicago
14,757 New England
14,313 DC United
14,053 Dallas
13,169 San Jose
13,075 Chivas USA
Would shatter the attendance record of 17,869 set last year by 1,300 a game. Wow. Should be interesting to see how far off I am.
2
Posted on 7/9/12 at 7:55 pm to inelishaitrust
NBA average attendance at about 17,274 FWIW.
ETA: I just removed Seattle as an outlier and did a quick average in excel, and the average attendance based on your prediction still exceeds the NBA at 17,414.
ETA: I just removed Seattle as an outlier and did a quick average in excel, and the average attendance based on your prediction still exceeds the NBA at 17,414.
This post was edited on 7/9/12 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 7/9/12 at 7:57 pm to acgeaux129
quote:
NBA average attendance at about 17,274 FWIW.
That's about where MLS is when you take Seattle out of the equation.
Posted on 7/9/12 at 7:59 pm to inelishaitrust
Haha, you beat me to that.
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:01 pm to acgeaux129
I love seeing Seattle's attendance numbers.
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:09 pm to WarSlamEagle
quote:
I love seeing Seattle's attendance numbers.
They're at 39something right now... but they are opening the entire stadium for Chelsea, Portland, LA and another MLS team, and selling those 4 tickets together.
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:36 pm to acgeaux129
quote:
NBA average attendance at about 17,274 FWIW.
ETA: I just removed Seattle as an outlier and did a quick average in excel, and the average attendance based on your prediction still exceeds the NBA at 17,414.
Yeah but come on man, the NBA has way way more games. Stupid comparison. MLS wouldn't draw those crowd if they play 4 games a week at home.
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:45 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Yeah but come on man, the NBA has way way more games. Stupid comparison. MLS wouldn't draw those crowd if they play 4 games a week at home.
Technically they would get pretty close. Almost every sport franchise counts the number of tickets distributed, not the number of people who show up to the game. The Sounders have in the low 30's of Season ticket holders and the Timbers to go along with a couple of other clubs have in the high teens. Soccer players can't play 3 to 4 games a week either, since the games last twice as long, the players don't get rests for substitutions/free throws/ect.
I'd say the NBA is more disadvantaged by being an indoor sport (limiting the size of arena) than they are by the number of games.
ETA: Do we take into account that NFL teams only play 8 home games a year when we look at their gaudy attendance #'s?
This post was edited on 7/9/12 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:50 pm to inelishaitrust
Last year, the Sounders opened up all the seating for one MLS match and got about 65,000 for the match against the Earthquakes.
This post was edited on 7/9/12 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:52 pm to inelishaitrust
quote:
13,075 Chivas USA
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:55 pm to Gmorgan4982
quote:
Last year, the Sounders opened up all the seating for one MLS match and got about 65,000 for the match against the Earthquakes.
I used 67,000 for the three full stadium matches in my maths.
Posted on 7/9/12 at 8:55 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
Well it's impossible to really come up with a direct comparison. It's just interesting that the MLS outdraws the NBA. MLB draws a lot more than NBA with a shitload more games.
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