re: There’s 2,500 Covid cases in Wisconsin but people acted like there’s anthrax at the polls

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That's cute, you claim to admit being wrong, then use those final sentences to do a mini backtrack from it.

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When there is no hard line between right and wrong, what do you suggest other than a sliding scale?

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Now, here's the part that he didn't mention...

If you scroll to the bottom of the page that's linked, it shows data for each state.

Wisconsin's R measure was 1.11 on March 17th. The latest data had it at 1.0.

The "higher" states he references are states that had lower numbers at the start, thus the drop hasn't been as dramatic as in other states.

That's how I interpret it, anyway. The phone lines are open...

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If you click the button that says "4 weeks ago", you will see each state's Rt value as of 4 weeks ago. At that point about 28 states had higher Rt values than Wisconsin. As of today, only 5 states have a higher Rt value. In other words, Wisconsin's Rt has improved (dropped), but not by as much as other states.

But even if the reproductive number was 2.0 on election day, a "spike" in cases weeks later should not have been expected. As a crude estimation, assume the infectious period is 2 weeks, so those 2.0 infections per case would be spread out over 14 days, or about 0.15 infections per day. Assuming a 10X multiple over confirmed cases would give ~25k infected people in Wisconsin at the time, so a one day event probably would only create about 3500 new infections. And given the likely ~90% asymptomatic rate, dividing back by 10 (could have just not multiplied at first, but this is for illustrative purposes) would result in only about 350 new confirmed cases, which is not a significant number. Spread those out over maybe a week since they wouldn't all hit on the same day, and I would only expect 50 "extra" cases per day for 1 week. That would easily get lost in the noise of the data.

So back on topic of me being wrong, I had not done that math at the time of the election. I was mostly reacting to the assholes who think it's funny when people take precautions.

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There’s 2,500 Covid cases in Wisconsin but people acted like there’s anthrax at the polls

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I wonder where they are getting this idea that if they go outside they will die?

Stay home fatty

MSNBC and CNN will praise the actions of the people for that move.