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Message
Suppression Polls as a Tactic
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:08 pm
Is it just me or is this tactic a bad idea? I just read an article a bit ago by some rag I hadn't really heard of before and this was the entire premise of their election "news."
"2 things are simultaneously true. 1. Joe Biden has an extremely high chance of winning the election and 2. Donald Trump has an extremely low chance of winning the election."
We all know the polls are nonsense, but am I the only one that conwiders this a tremendously bad idea by those who want to see Biden in the Oval Office? It seems to me a better tactic would be, if you're gonna lie, instead of saying Biden is a shoe-in say that the polls are neck-and-neck. This will keep your base engaged.
As more and more stuff comes out about the Biden corruption, it seems foolish to me to be telling Democrats Biden has this in the bag. I think that mistake may lead to Democrats simply staying home because they think the thing is already won.
Why are the Democrats suddenly so incompetent? They're making boneheaded decisions as fast as they come up.
"2 things are simultaneously true. 1. Joe Biden has an extremely high chance of winning the election and 2. Donald Trump has an extremely low chance of winning the election."
We all know the polls are nonsense, but am I the only one that conwiders this a tremendously bad idea by those who want to see Biden in the Oval Office? It seems to me a better tactic would be, if you're gonna lie, instead of saying Biden is a shoe-in say that the polls are neck-and-neck. This will keep your base engaged.
As more and more stuff comes out about the Biden corruption, it seems foolish to me to be telling Democrats Biden has this in the bag. I think that mistake may lead to Democrats simply staying home because they think the thing is already won.
Why are the Democrats suddenly so incompetent? They're making boneheaded decisions as fast as they come up.
13
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:11 pm to BoarEd
Dems claiming every poll was in favor of hillory in 2016 didn't work out
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:11 pm to BoarEd
quote:
it seems foolish to me to be telling Democrats Biden has this in the bag. I think that mistake may lead to Democrats simply staying home because they think the thing is already won.
Especially when you have a "no enthusiasm" candidate. You gotta really hate Trump to wait in line for 2 hours.....
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:12 pm to BoarEd
A fly in the conspiracy ointment.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:12 pm to WorkinDawg
quote:
Especially when you have a "no enthusiasm" candidate. You gotta really hate Trump to wait in line for 2 hours.....
Exactly. These people are so incredibly stupid.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:12 pm to BoarEd
I don’t know if it’s an effective tactic or not. We know last time Trump won anyway but would he have won by more if the polls leading up to the election weren’t rigged? It’s frustrating that we don’t really have a good idea of how things are because we know we cannot trust the polls. Come here to PT and everyone says Trump is winning it. Go to the polar opposite, DU, and see that the crazies over there all believe 100% that Biden takes it. We’ll find out soon enough.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:16 pm to BoarEd
Suppression polls work. Just read this board every day and listen to the doom and gloom.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:19 pm to SCLibertarian
quote:
Suppression polls work. Just read this board every day and listen to the doom and gloom.
Yeah, they work to dissuade a portion of the Trump base. That is certainly true. But I would love to see someone do an analysis and see if the risk outweighs the benefits. We already know it failed last time. Its gonna fail again.
I just see it as a bad decision. I think the risk of turning off a portion of your own base outweighs any potential benefit. The Democrats need absolutely every vote they can get.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:19 pm to BoarEd
quote:Reading your post, not sure if you fully grasp the reason for suppression polling. They are designed to dishearten/discourage the marginal supporters of your opponent into just not voting, and to prevent any growth or bandwagon increase in voters for your opponent. Even if they don’t vote for your candidate, the goal is to discourage them from voting FOR the opponent. Which then becomes a net positive (+1) vote for your candidate...like a default gain in a forfeit.
Is it just me or is this tactic a bad idea?
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:21 pm to BoarEd
It's going to take more than TDS to elect an old Swamp Rat that can't even operate a motor vehicle safely.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:21 pm to BoarEd
They work extremely well when you have a milquetoast candidate that generates no enthusiasm (McCain and Romney)... but this go around that candidate is Biden, and they'll probably backfire by preventing some segment of Biden voters from going to vote.
I predict by election day the polls will have Trump up as a last ditch effort to get out fence-sitting Biden voters.
I predict by election day the polls will have Trump up as a last ditch effort to get out fence-sitting Biden voters.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:25 pm to JawjaTigah
quote:
Reading your post, not sure if you fully grasp the reason for suppression polling. They are designed to dishearten/discourage the marginal supporters of your opponent into just not voting, and to prevent any growth or bandwagon increase in voters for your opponent. Even if they don’t vote for your candidate, the goal is to discourage them from voting FOR the opponent. Which then becomes a net positive (+1) vote for your candidate...like a default gain in a forfeit.
No, I understand it fine. What I am suggesting is that it will dissuade Democrats from voting just as much as it will dissuade Republicans from voting.
Democrats are not sold on Biden. I personally know many lifelong Democrat voters who are not voting this year at all because they do not like either candidate. These would be your "marginal" supporters. Biden has them too. And when you tell people who are right there on that fence, and you tell them the Democrats have a 90+% chance of winning, those people aren't feeling the pressure to get out there and vote Democrat like they've done their entire lives.
It hurts Biden just the same as it hurts Trump, except the entire point of lying about the support is that you're trying to put your candidate over the top. That isn't gonna happen when your candidate is actually behind.
I can't see it as anything other than a fatally flawed tactic. Maybe not in every election, but in this one certainly.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:30 pm to BoarEd
You are thinking to simply in a one variable scenario (turnout).
But, you have to realize that the plan is to attack Trump on everything and paint the picture that everybody hates him. The polls are necessary.
And, you can make a pretty good argument that enthusiasm (even manufactured) is more important than concern in the end.
But, you have to realize that the plan is to attack Trump on everything and paint the picture that everybody hates him. The polls are necessary.
And, you can make a pretty good argument that enthusiasm (even manufactured) is more important than concern in the end.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:37 pm to moneyg
quote:
You are thinking to simply in a one variable scenario (turnout).
But, you have to realize that the plan is to attack Trump on everything and paint the picture that everybody hates him. The polls are necessary.
And, you can make a pretty good argument that enthusiasm (even manufactured) is more important than concern in the end.
I think both positions can be true. And what that means is that their entire strategy is doomed from the jump.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:39 pm to cwill
quote:
A fly in the conspiracy ointment.
Do you ever contribute anything but snide remarks?
The question is legit. Whether the polls are legit or not, no one actually knows.
I have wondered the risks and benefits of the hypothetical and would like to know what others have to say. Then here you are with your cute contrarian routine. Not saying you are a boob, just that you exhibit boobish behavior.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:44 pm to JawjaTigah
Thanks for a legitimate answer.
The question for me are the "marginal" voters. If current events brings anger won't they become less marginal? To me the idea of suppression poles is double edged, and thus carries risk. Suppose they have people that manage that risk; if they remain objective themselves. I have not seen much objectivity from the progressives. They seem to be going ball to the wall regardless of risk.
The question for me are the "marginal" voters. If current events brings anger won't they become less marginal? To me the idea of suppression poles is double edged, and thus carries risk. Suppose they have people that manage that risk; if they remain objective themselves. I have not seen much objectivity from the progressives. They seem to be going ball to the wall regardless of risk.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:55 pm to IslandBuckeye
quote:
Do you ever contribute anything but snide remarks?
You can go through my post history and see that I respond accordingly, appropriately to each thread.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:57 pm to BoarEd
They use suppression polls in the hopes that Trump supporters or perspective supporters will get discouraged and either not vote, or vote for Biden, thinking their vote for Trump would be wasted.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:57 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
I predict by election day the polls will have Trump up as a last ditch effort to get out fence-sitting Biden voters
And I predict this will prove to be an accurate prediction. They'll learn from last cycle, but it will be too late. Their problem appears to be that they thought all of their suppression polls and negative reporting throughout this first term would have already destroyed Trump. As we know this isn't happening and I doubt Trump has nearly as many marginal supporters as Biden does. Not even close. Trump is an extremely high enthusiasm candidate. Probably has the highest enthusiasm of any candidate in history even though the country seems so polarized.
If, by election day they show Trump leading in the polls this will tell me that they were unable to dovetail these two contradictory narratives in a sufficient manner and the tactic backfired spectacularly.
Historians looking back over these last four years in American politics are going to learn a lot about political science. A lot.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:58 pm to Revelator
quote:
They use suppression polls in the hopes that Trump supporters or perspective supporters will get discouraged and either not vote, or vote for Biden, thinking their vote for Trump would be wasted
Yes. This much is obviously true. On its face, that is the desired outcome.
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