re: Q-poll in Ohio: Biden 50, Trump 42

Trump won Ohio 51.69% to Hilldog’s 43.56%. Given Trump delivering on the economy, manufacturing jobs, and holding China to account... contrasted to Biden’s China connections... I don’t see how anyone could take that poll seriously. How do the the pollsters themselves take that seriously? For Trump to drop from 52 to 42, he’d have to have lost roughly 20% of his vote and not picked any of the Republican turned libertarian protest vote, which was almost 4% in Ohio, and none of the Republican protest by not voting at all vote.

Given that 5.580 million people voted total in Ohio in 2012 compared to 5.496 million in 2016, there are plenty of disaffected voters, including 433,000 less votes for the Democratic Candidate, but even if you give all those back to Biden and the 28k extra Jill Stein got in 2016 vs 20, you’re still trailing Trump.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s possible, and while I don’t see Trump regret being a thing. I can buy “classically rust belt Democrat going back because of a traditionally rust belt candidate” being a thing. And the numbers do show increased suburban female turnout in 2018 for the Dems that sat home abstaining thinking Trump couldn’t win... I just cNt see it being enough evaporate Trump’s lead in Ohio. I am not in Ohio, but I do know a few people from there and I think the Trump base is strong enough. If he just held form with the same vote total, Biden would have to get 47% more votes than Hilldog did for that 52-42 thing to be true. I just don’t see it. Ohio was 10% more than the national average in Republican.

By believe it all you want Dems. If your Washington think tanks run by pseudo-intellectuals with JD’s and no real world experience tell you to trust the polls, trust the polls.