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Started By
Message
re: Putin, "Victory will be ours."
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:00 am to Bunk Moreland
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:00 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Ukraine never had a chance. Devising 'counteroffensives' in Washington and Brussels just added the perfect ingredient for their defeat
They'll end up hating us when it's all over.
0
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:18 am to SouthEasternKaiju
quote:No, but it seems you realize, unlike many, that a lack of understanding of adversaries leads to vulnerability.
I do not come to praise Putin...
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:30 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Well, the Russians can impose their own peace in Ukraine
They definitely cannot.
quote:
The terrain isn’t ideal for an insurgency, it won’t be easy to hide, but beyond that, I don’t think the population would support one.
The notion that terrain can define an insurgency is linked to the 'Vietnam syndrome' pervasive in military studies, which suggested that successful insurgencies have to be based on the Mao-derived model of insurgency warfare. And the bet that the population wouldn't support an insurgency is absolutely unhinged.
quote:
How many wounded is that, 900k? And this is in a country with a prewar population between 22 to 40 million.
As always, you are missing the key element of insurgency. There are lessons from recent conflicts in a direct sense you should heed.
quote:
There was no insurgency in remnants of the Confederacy
Yeah just a campaign of terror led by Confederate veterans which resulted in almost innumerable reprisals.
The Russian geopolitical problems are intractable. The result in Ukraine doesn't matter, as long-term conflict is assured as long as the current Russian faction is in power.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:32 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Correct, the loss of 1/4th of land area of a country, and probably more in terms of national production value, does not look like "winning" at all ... because it isn't.
The land that Russia took from Ukraine absolutely does not have 25% of Ukraine's productive capacity.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:34 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
They definitely cannot.
Are you referring to Ukraine as a whole, or the occupied east.Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:37 am to crazy4lsu
quote:Define the term as you're addressing it.
The land that Russia took from Ukraine absolutely does not have 25% of Ukraine's productive capacity.
E.g., hydrocarbons, Crimean port facilities, etc.?
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:40 am to SouthEasternKaiju
quote:
Not sharing or understanding his goals doesn't make them go away either.
But this goes both ways. Russia's geopolitical position is intractable primarily because their opposition is intractable. They themselves undermined their aims in Europe by being duplicitous, undercutting the wing of European politics which favored rapprochement so severely that it will take decades to reenter that world. Their actions made the Western alliance more resolute. They also don't have anything to offer countries at the fringes of the alliance because they aren't offering an alternative model, just a system where Russian interests are held above others.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:42 am to NC_Tigah
As in the percent of GDP, which is a reflection of productive capacity. 30% of Ukraine's GDP is centered on Kiev and a significant percentage is also based on the Kiev Oblast.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 6:46 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Are you referring to Ukraine as a whole, or the occupied east.
Brah, read the post I'm responding to. There isn't any indication that the OP is limiting his discussion to just the occupied eastern portion of the country. It's been a consistent belief of that poster that Russia would be able to impose it's will on Ukraine, and his story changes every time his insane expectations aren't met.
Again, the notion that Russia can impose anything on the entirety of Ukraine is fanciful.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:15 am to crazy4lsu
quote:I did read the post. Where do you extrapolate an imposed Russian peace in unoccupied Ukraine? or did you come away with the belief the poster claims all of Ukraine will fall to the Russians?
Brah, read the post I'm responding to. There isn't any indication that the OP is limiting his discussion to just the occupied eastern portion of the country.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:20 am to crazy4lsu
quote:Of course they can.
the notion that Russia can impose anything on the entirety of Ukraine is fanciful.
That will be the express purpose of negotiations, when negotiations eventually occur ... and they will. E.g., Dissolution of the Ukraine-to-NATO BS may well be one such example.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:22 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Where do you extrapolate an imposed Russian peace in unoccupied Ukraine?
Because of the language he used and has used in the past? Did the language itself suggest a limitation? Words mean things. If he meant something else, he should have written it that way. There is no extrapolation needed when the reference is to just 'Ukraine' with no qualifier.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:24 am to rooster108bm
quote:
And you believe what your told
Do you have more accurate numbers to cite?
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:25 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Of course they can.
No they cannot.
quote:
That will be the express purpose of negotiations, when negotiations eventually occur ... and they will.
They will impose something they have to negotiate? They straight up do not have the leverage in negotiations that you think they do.
quote:
Dissolution of the Ukraine-to-NATO BS may well be one such example.
What? Ascension is a more likely outcome than Russia imposing its will.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:30 am to crazy4lsu
quote:Yes. That and common sense.
Did the language itself suggest a limitation?
quote:Right. Sometimes if you look at them with a mental bias, are you are doing here, you will misinterpret the meaning.
Words mean things.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:33 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Yes. That and common sense.
When the poster, if he comes back, says that he meant the entirety of Ukraine, what then?
quote:
Right. Sometimes if you look at them with a mental bias, are you are doing here, you will misinterpret the meaning.
What? You are literally adding a word which was not written and pretending that is common sense. The bias here is your own.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:35 am to crazy4lsu
quote:ORLY?
Ascension is a more likely outcome than Russia imposing its will.
NATO will never move forward with Ukraine at war. Russia will not end hostilities until Ukraine captulates on that point.
The Ukraine-to-NATO premise was always pathologically stupid. Now it will get hung around the neck of the west as a reminder.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 7:35 am
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:35 am to GumboPot
Poli board clapping like seals for their (non orange) hero 
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:36 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
crazy4lsu
go back to the OT war thread. Arent you guys tired of defending this ridiculous war that Ukraine is kosing? Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:39 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
ORLY?
Yes.
quote:
NATO will never move forward with Ukraine at war. Russia will not end hostilities until Ukraine captulates on that point
Again, like I've said repeatedly, their situation is intractable.
quote:
The Ukraine-to-NATO premise was always pathologically stupid. Now it will get hung around the neck of the west as a reminder
It is going to happen and there are key things that happened this week which show why.
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