Guess I’ll post this again since people want to post fake polls

And didn’t learn a lesson from 2016, Brexit, Australian elections, tuberville vs sessions, etc.


“According to the poll conducted by the Washington based thinktank the Democracy Institute, President Trump is neck and neck with his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent. However, Mr Trump would win in the electoral college system by 309 to 229 delegates because he is on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he outpolls Vice President Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent.“...... LINK



Image: Sunday Express)
Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express poll
Trump’s National Job Approval

Approve = 47%
Disapprove = 52%
Enthusiasm Gap?

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”
Trump voters = 77%

Biden voters = 43%

Q “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?
Trump voters: positive vote = 81%; negative vote = 19%

Biden voters: positive vote = 29%; negative vote = 71%

Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”

Trump voters: Yes = 4%

Biden voters: Yes = 12%

"Shy" Trump Vote?

Questions to Undecided Voters

Q “Does a relative or a friend plan to vote for Trump?”

Yes = 66%

No = 34%

Q. “Will President Trump be reelected?”

Yes = 52%

No = 48%

Question to All Voters

Q. “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”

Trump voters: Yes = 29%

Biden voters: Yes = 82%

National Popular Vote

Trump = 47%

Biden = 47%

Undecided = 6%

White voters: Trump = 52% Biden = 46%

Black: Trump 16% Biden = 81%

Hispanic: Trump 34% Biden = 51%

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Trump = 48%

Biden = 44%

Undecided = 8%

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)

270 needed to win

Trump = 309 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire]

Biden = 229 [picks-up Wisconsin]

Candidate Characteristics

Biden’s Mental Acuity

Q “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”

Yes 55%

No 40%

Don’t know 5%

Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

More likely 19%

Less likely 44%

No difference 37%

Leadership

Q “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?”

Trump = 67%

Biden = 27%

Q “Is Trump/Biden a consensus builder?”

Trump = 22%

Biden = 55%

Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?”

Yes = 70%

No = 30%

Q “Is Joe Biden an establishment politician?”

Yes = 61%

No = 39%

Personal Traits

Q “Is Trump/Biden too old to be president?”
Trump = 37%

Biden = 58%

Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?”

Trump = 30%

Biden = 60%

Q “Would you happily invite Trump/Biden to your 4th of July weekend party or barbecue?”

Trump = 33%

Biden = 51%

Neither = 16%

Q “Would you give Trump/Biden $10,000 of your own money to invest on your behalf?”

Trump = 65%

Biden = 31%

Race

Black Lives Matter

Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”

Black Lives Matter = 29%

All Lives Matter = 71%

Q “Would Joe Biden’s selection of a black running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

More likely 15%

Less likely 9%

No difference 76%

Monuments / Statues

Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”

Approve 15%

Disapprove 74%

Don’t Know 11%

Mount Rushmore

Q “Do you agree with the New York Times that Mount Rushmore is a racist monument?”

Agree 15%

Disagree 77%

Don’t Know 8%

Policing / Law & Order

Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”

Too tough 27%

Just right 28%

Not tough enough 45%

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”

Approve = 59%

Disapprove = 40%

Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”

Yes = 38%

No = 60%

Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between black Americans and the police?”

Law & order = 67%

Improving relations between black Americans & police = 29%

Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”

Yes = 16%

No = 75%

Pandemic

Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”

Yes = 65%

No = 32%

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”

Approve = 40%

Disapprove = 49%

Protests on the streets of Hong Kong
Protests on the streets of Hong Kong (Image: Getty)
Hong Kong/China/UK

Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?”

Trump = 61%

Biden = 35%

Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the protests in Hong Kong against the new security law imposed upon Hong Kong by China?”

Approve 67%

Disapprove 22%

Don’t Know 11%

Q “UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to offer a path to British citizenship for three million Hong Kong citizens. Do you agree or disagree with his offer?”

Agree 64%

Disagree 29%

Don’t know 7%

Q “On Tuesday, a bipartisan group of politicians in Congress introduced a bill to give refugee status here in America to Hong Kong residents at risk of persecution under the new security law. Do you approve or disapprove of this bill?”

Approve 59%

Disapprove 34%

Don’t Know 7%


Poll Methodology

The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from July 1-3 2020. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and mobile phone-only households. The party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 38 percent; Republicans = 38 percent; and Independents = 24 percent.