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re: follow-up thread on Iran tankers headed to Venezuela
Posted on 5/21/20 at 10:44 pm to ArkBengal
Posted on 5/21/20 at 10:44 pm to ArkBengal
quote:
Yes.Your final number would be close if it was crude. However I see no circumstances which would result in these ships being sunk. Worst case disabled perhaps though even just a blockade could likely be considered an act of war. Don't see that happening - at least not yet.
Yeah, I don't see it happening either. I do see that gasoline would be lower, so my numbers are wrong for that reason too.
1
Posted on 5/22/20 at 12:22 am to Microtiger
Well as our old friend Lee Corso would say "not so fast my friend"
Having piqued my interest I went back to articles on this shipment. Reports from BBC and others say there is a total of 1.5 Million barrels of basically gasoline on these five ships combined, not 6.8 million bbls. That seems to be where our numbers diverge. Gas is close to 6 Lb per gallon, or say 250 Lb/BBL or 8.8 bbl per MT.
BBC
This should equate to roughly 375 Million pounds (of gasoline) which would roughly equal 180000 tons US total, or about 170500 Metric Tonnes. Still a far cry from the over 900,000 MT figure used. So, that still leaves us with quite a disparity with the figure used in your post. Would still make quite a mess but not quite the catastrophic situation described.
On the other hand I now find it conceivable, but not necessarily likely, that military intervention could be used under the Iran sanctions. Those sanctions could provide some basis for direct action including blockade, embargo, boarding, confiscation or worse. Hopefully, rational behavior by all parties will wiggle out of this without too much damage done other than political embarrassment. Too close to election time to start throwing gas on the fire, so to speak.
Having piqued my interest I went back to articles on this shipment. Reports from BBC and others say there is a total of 1.5 Million barrels of basically gasoline on these five ships combined, not 6.8 million bbls. That seems to be where our numbers diverge. Gas is close to 6 Lb per gallon, or say 250 Lb/BBL or 8.8 bbl per MT.
BBC
This should equate to roughly 375 Million pounds (of gasoline) which would roughly equal 180000 tons US total, or about 170500 Metric Tonnes. Still a far cry from the over 900,000 MT figure used. So, that still leaves us with quite a disparity with the figure used in your post. Would still make quite a mess but not quite the catastrophic situation described.
On the other hand I now find it conceivable, but not necessarily likely, that military intervention could be used under the Iran sanctions. Those sanctions could provide some basis for direct action including blockade, embargo, boarding, confiscation or worse. Hopefully, rational behavior by all parties will wiggle out of this without too much damage done other than political embarrassment. Too close to election time to start throwing gas on the fire, so to speak.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 12:30 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 1:25 am to Microtiger
quote:
If you consider the material in a nuclear reactor a "substance", then imagine a Chernobyl in every country
The exclusion zone affected by Chernobyl relative to the size of Ukraine, or the U.S. is tiny, a Chernobyl type incident in every country would be inconvient, but mankind would still carry on.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:18 am to yat70458
Herp, derp....derp.
Sink them before they get filled up?
Irans out of Obama dollars what are they going to pay with?
Sink them before they get filled up?
Irans out of Obama dollars what are they going to pay with?
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:26 am to yat70458
Seize them, put a price tag on them, and drop them off at the UN as our payment for this year.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:45 am to ManBearTiger
quote:
Only an absolute retard could think any substance made by mankind, fabricated from raw materials sourced from the earth, could do "irreparable" damage to the earth.
Apparently you’ve never heard of uranium/plutonium and what they can do.
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