Covid 19: misunderstandings in statistics, ascertainment bias (more testing= more "cases")

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math, statistics

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Both racist.

no way these idiots will understand testing error effects

I’m only borderline genius.

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I didn’t read all of that, but does it explain the mysterious deaths in Antarctica?

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Antarctica is the safe continent right now. Bilderberg won’t allow their safe haven refuge to be tainted. They have seismic devices to create man made earthquakes.

It really is pretty simple

Most people with it are minimally symptomatic, never seek help hence they are not tested
These folks are essentially unknowns that do not factor into these calculations (massively skewing the %)

Some fricktard (sadly well credentialed in various spaces) have extrapolated this to influenza data (in which almost every frick with a runny nose gets tested) . The % reflect a truer picture for these folks.

What we have currently are “educated” folks spouting that 2 to 3x people are going to die based off of these faulty premises...

Antarctica will never get it. Bilderberg won’t “shite where they eat.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

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Lower death rate estimates for coronavirus, especially for non-elderly, provide glimmer of hope
By SHARON BEGLEY @sxbegle MARCH 16, 2020

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In a rare piece of good news about Covid-19, a team of infectious disease experts calculates that the fatality rate in people who have symptoms of the disease caused by the new coronavirus is about 1.4%. Although that estimate applies specifically to Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began, and is based on data from there, it offers a guide to the rest of the world, where many countries might see even lower death rates.

The new figure is significantly below earlier estimates of 2% or 3% and well below the death rate for China based on simply dividing deaths by cases, which yields almost 4%. While it is still higher than the average 0.1% death rate from seasonal flu, it raises hopes that the worst consequence of the coronavirus will be uncommon.

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Expect this % to continue to “improve”...

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The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%. The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.

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This trend is important...

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https://www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/

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SCIENCE03.17.2020 07:00 AM

Why the Coronavirus Hit Italy So Hard The country has the second-oldest population on Earth. Its young tend to mingle more often with elderly loved ones.

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Italy has been hit particularly hard, with some 2,000 deaths thus far. Overwhelmed hospital staffers have had to make devastating decisions about who to treat and who they must let perish. The reason why Italy is suffering so badly, write University of Oxford researchers in a new paper in the journal Demographic Science, may be twofold: The country has the second-oldest population on Earth, and its young tend to mingle more often with the elderly, like their grandparents. Such demographic research will be critical in facing down the threat elsewhere, as more countries grapple with a deadly pandemic that’s just getting started and learn more about how the virus is transmitted within families and communities.

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In Italy, 23 percent of the population is over age 65, compared to the US, where that population is 16 percent. “Extended longevity has played some role in changing the population structure,” says University of Oxford demographer and epidemiologist Jennifer Beam Dowd, lead author of the new paper.

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The irony here is that the enlightened may be overlooking cultural diversity as a main player...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

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A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

By JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS MARCH 17, 2020

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The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

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That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies. Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.

These “mild” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.

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I realize this is unpopular here, but 41 people died today, the 5th day in a row of of increasing deaths, well outside the trend line of the exponential rate it had been increasing.