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CNN John King in 2016 provided an explanation for the impact of Trump’s rallies
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:24 am
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:24 am
Not directly, but I remember throughout the night in 2016, John King attempted to explain where Trump was getting his votes to lead Clinton in the election. He pointed out that Clinton had leads in high population urban areas, which were running on big numbers. Hundreds of thousands of votes and to the quick-glimpse viewer, it would appear that Clinton should be leading with a sizable lead.
But when you pan out of the urban areas and look at the rural, you’ll see much smaller voting numbers but with larger margins. The percentages were wider across the state. A small town with 1000 voters for example may have broke for Trump 700-300, giving Trump 40% more of the total vote for that town. As John King put it that night, those small towns matter because as they add up, you get one collective “big metro” that broke for Trump in huge ways.
Look at the population totals for the state:
Wisconsin - ~6.0 million
Milwaukee - 1.57 million
Madison Metro - 684k
Green Bay Metro - 320k
That’s ~2.85 million leaving the rest of the state with ~3.30 million people, and if they’re breaking for Trump at larger percentages than the larger metro areas, then that means Trump wins Wisconsin.
As pointed out in many of his rallies threads, Trump is gathering huge numbers to his rallies without going to urban areas. His schedule is going to places like Rome, GA and Grand Rapids, MI. Places that won’t display big numbers like Atlanta or Detroit but do matter with the smaller towns around the state. This is why his rallies are the most impressive part of his campaign and are instrumental in pushing swing states his way.
But when you pan out of the urban areas and look at the rural, you’ll see much smaller voting numbers but with larger margins. The percentages were wider across the state. A small town with 1000 voters for example may have broke for Trump 700-300, giving Trump 40% more of the total vote for that town. As John King put it that night, those small towns matter because as they add up, you get one collective “big metro” that broke for Trump in huge ways.
Look at the population totals for the state:
Wisconsin - ~6.0 million
Milwaukee - 1.57 million
Madison Metro - 684k
Green Bay Metro - 320k
That’s ~2.85 million leaving the rest of the state with ~3.30 million people, and if they’re breaking for Trump at larger percentages than the larger metro areas, then that means Trump wins Wisconsin.
As pointed out in many of his rallies threads, Trump is gathering huge numbers to his rallies without going to urban areas. His schedule is going to places like Rome, GA and Grand Rapids, MI. Places that won’t display big numbers like Atlanta or Detroit but do matter with the smaller towns around the state. This is why his rallies are the most impressive part of his campaign and are instrumental in pushing swing states his way.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 7:26 am
2
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:29 am to StringedInstruments
Just look at the county by county voting chart. It was insane.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:09 am to Nono
quote:
Just look at the county by county voting chart. It was insane.
Exactly and I wonder much how these pollsters are missing from this. How many small town “bumpkins” aren’t considered likely voters by these poll organizations? They’re going to swing the election.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:32 am to Nono
New York 2016 results
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:52 am to S J Jones
NV looks similar. Basically two counties run the state.
For all of his faults—Trump knows who his voters are. And he’s spent.his time, money, energy energizing his voters. They’re a majority—you just need to give the em something to vote for.
Contrast to the decades of Republican losses (see The Lincoln Project membership) that tried to convert “moderates”, “independents” and “moderate democrats” to vote Republican.
Ask anyone in advertising—it’s much easier to use existing brand loyalty than convert customers that are already happy with another product.
For all of his faults—Trump knows who his voters are. And he’s spent.his time, money, energy energizing his voters. They’re a majority—you just need to give the em something to vote for.
Contrast to the decades of Republican losses (see The Lincoln Project membership) that tried to convert “moderates”, “independents” and “moderate democrats” to vote Republican.
Ask anyone in advertising—it’s much easier to use existing brand loyalty than convert customers that are already happy with another product.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:58 am to Nono
quote:
Just look at the county by county voting chart. It was insane.
Exactly why the libs want to eradicate the electoral college.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:59 am to S J Jones
quote:
New York 2016 results
For one, NY isn’t a swing state. There’s no chance of a Republican winning there and the margins aren’t close. Two, New York City nullifies everything else about the state because it’s the most populated metro in the country and might as well be its own state.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:01 am to StringedInstruments
quote:Add the open-air concert element, and it is a clever strategy.
Trump is gathering huge numbers to his rallies without going to urban areas. His schedule is going to places like Rome, GA and Grand Rapids, MI. Places that won’t display big numbers like Atlanta or Detroit but do matter with the smaller towns around the state.
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