re: Things are heating up again in Korea (UPDATE IN OP: US Mobilizes 2nd ID)

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So what's different this time?

Partly, it's North Korea's apparent willingness to back up an earlier vow to attack the anti-Pyongyang loudspeakers and also on the specificity of its Saturday deadline.

There was surprise when South Korea's military reported Thursday that North Korea had fired across the border, and was then met by dozens of shells from the South. If the North attacked once, some argue, it may be more likely to back up its newest threat, especially if a very specific deadline is being ignored, as Seoul has indicated it will do.

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While earlier North Korean leaders - the founder, Kim Il Sung, and his son Kim Jong Il - were seen as masters of brinksmanship, men who knew how to play a dangerous game where threats and provocations were pushed to a straining point, but not to breaking, to extract concessions and aid, Kim Jong Un is seen as lacking the same savvy, experience and, after a series of bloody, high-level government and military purges, the necessary good counsel.

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There has been bloodshed in skirmishes in recent decades but the fighting has not escalated. The risk of things getting out of hand seems greater now because South Korea, in the wake of a humiliating exchange in 2010, when a surprise North Korean artillery attack killed four, has instructed its military to hit back much harder if attacked.

Even so, and granting the important caveat that predicting North Korea's behavior in advance is largely a fool's errand, there are still some important signs that tensions may ease.

For the most part, North Korea's authoritarian leadership, while seen by many outsiders as unpredictable, is overwhelmingly consistent on one major point: The Kim family's rule must be protected.

While proud and incredibly sensitive to perceived slights from the outside, and therefore furious over the criticism being piped across the border on the South Korean loudspeakers, Pyongyang is reluctant to do anything to jeopardize the all-powerful position the Kims have enjoyed since founding the country in 1948.

Insults must be answered, of course, in over-the top state media propaganda and in declarations from troops and citizens showcasing a willingness to crush the enemy. But this is largely for the benefit of a domestic audience that cannot be allowed to see Kim Jong Un in anything but a heroic light.

Pushing things to a full military conflict is seen as suicide. The United States stations tens of thousands of troops in South Korea, and both Seoul and Washington far outclass Pyongyang in their weapons' technology and effectiveness. North Korea could do serious damage to Seoul - even rusty artillery, when plentiful and close-by, can be deadly - but a war would eventually destroy the Kim family.

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Obama needs to sign a peace treaty immediately with North Korea and abandoned the Japanese

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So, is 1 AM Pacific kick-off time?

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Fears of a military clash sent more than 3,700 residents near the border with North Korea scurrying for shelters. The evacuation is set to finish by 4 p.m., one hour before the North's deadline.

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@YonhapNews 3m3 minutes ago
(URGENT) Two Koreas to hold high-level talks at border village of Panmunjom: Cheong Wa Dae

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Apparently North Korea asked South Korea to talk.

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