Part of Louisiana in zone for uncontrolled re-entry of Russian space ship

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What’s known is that Kosmos-482’s orbit places it between 52 degrees north latitude and 52 degrees south latitude, which covers Africa, Australia, most of the Americas and much of south- and mid-latitude Europe and Asia. “There are three things that can happen when something re-enters: a splash, a thud or an ouch,” Dr. McKnight said. “A splash is really good,” he said, and may be most likely because so much of Earth is covered in oceans. He said the hope was to avoid the “thud” or the “ouch.” Will the spacecraft survive impact? Assuming Kosmos-482 survives re-entry — and it should, as long as its heat shield is intact — the spacecraft will be going around 150 miles an hour, when it smashes into whatever it smashes into, Dr. Langbroek calculated. “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot left afterward,” Dr. McDowell said. “Imagine putting your car into a wall at 150 miles an hour and seeing how much of it is left.”

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When will Kosmos-482 come back to Earth? Estimates change daily, but the predicted days of re-entry are currently Friday or Saturday. The New York Times will provide updated estimates as they are revised. One calculation of the window by the Aerospace Corporation, a federally supported nonprofit that tracks space debris, suggests 2:07 a.m. Eastern time on May 10, plus or minus four hours. The Space Force offered a similar time frame, at 1:52 a.m. Marco Langbroek, a scientist and satellite tracker at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands who has tracked Kosmos-482 for years, puts the estimate closer to 2:30 a.m. Eastern on May 10, plus or minus about 4 hours.

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