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Started By
Message
re: General Tornado Thread
Posted on 4/26/14 at 6:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 4/26/14 at 6:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
Some of the High Res models are firing convection early tomorrow west of DFW w/ EHI over 7 in the DFW area... (based on 18z NAM soundings)
2
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:02 pm to rds dc
quote:
Some of the High Res models are firing convection early tomorrow west of DFW w/ EHI over 7 in the DFW area... (based on 18z NAM soundings)
disclaimer: this image below isn't a radar simulation, don't take it as such
no kidding, the NAM shows high EHI, yet it doesn't show anything popping off til that evening, and thats far east of DFW. HRRR shows high EHI and a few pops though:
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 7:06 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:03 pm to GEAUXmedic
So we are clear?
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:04 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
So we are clear?
No, just stay alert
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:04 pm to rds dc
Bet we see much of nothing around here. Models have been backing way off on precip total compared to what they showed a couple of days ago. Strong cap looks to be firmly entrenched in south LA and will be hard to break. Far north LA, MS, and AL is another story though.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:04 pm to LSUGrrrl
NW La moved up to a 9 TorCon.
This is getting a little to real.
This is getting a little to real.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:06 pm to lsu mike
quote:
Bet we see much of nothing around here. Models have been backing way off on precip total compared to what they showed a couple of days ago. Strong cap looks to be firmly entrenched in south LA and will be hard to break. Far north LA, MS, and AL is another story though.
Id have to agree
quote:
NW La moved up to a 9 TorCon.
This is getting a little to real.
nope, still at a 7
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
HRRR shows high EHI and a few pops though:
There could be explosive upscale growth in that environment. Certainly something to watch and FWD seems to think that all modes would be in play, if storms fire.
ETA: The HRRR is typically pretty crappy but has performed well with a couple of events so far this season.
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:36 pm to rds dc
quote:
There could be explosive upscale growth in that environment. Certainly something to watch and FWD seems to think that all modes would be in play, if storms fire.
ETA: The HRRR is typically pretty crappy but has performed well with a couple of events so far this season.
The HRRR was the only Hi Res model I had that showed anything, even the NAM was shite. What model were you looking at? to further prove your point, just saw this on twitter.. this is what the HRRR predicted at 7 PM this evening:
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 7:39 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:46 pm to GEAUXmedic
Air Show at Barksdale is cancelled tomorrow. 
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:52 pm to rds dc
It appears that two boundaries are converging on Childress, TX with an intensifying cell heading right into town. Could end up being nothing or could be some really interesting storm scale interactions about to happen.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
What model were you looking at?
HRRR
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:59 pm to rds dc
Those storms in W Texas are hugging that dry line, bone dry just to the west of them.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 8:02 pm to Scoop
quote:
The TorCon page still has NW La and SW Ark at 7 but in this clip it is set at 9 by Forbes:
it says video not found, he's on TWC right now though.. torcon still 7
Posted on 4/26/14 at 8:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
Dear god let this happen.
Tired of being let down.
Tired of being let down.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 8:05 pm to rds dc
quote:
Those storms in W Texas are hugging that dry line, bone dry just to the west of them.
2mi W Paducah: Time: 2014-04-27 00:52 UTC
Event: 0.75 HAIL
Source: fire dept/rescue
Remark: penny hail 2w paducah. pea size hail in paducah.
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 8:07 pm to rds dc
It looks like the secondary dry line is surging back west to merge with the primary dry line. IIRC, there is a pretty famous west Texas tornado were the dry line passed through town and then surged back west through town before the tornado moved in. Not saying that is about to happen, just a partially incorrect story probably 
Posted on 4/26/14 at 8:07 pm to GEAUXmedic
In the clip which is from earlier, he explains TorCon and clearly says he is assigning a 9 to NW La and Southwest Ark. He is next to a graphic that has a 9 right over this area while he is pointing at it. He says this area is a 9.
Sorry about the link but it's right there.
I had to refresh the link a few times to get the video on my phone. Try that.
Sorry about the link but it's right there.
I had to refresh the link a few times to get the video on my phone. Try that.
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 8:10 pm to Scoop
Ah I found your video, that video is really old. They just keep it up cause it explains what tor:con is
see old graphics:
new graphics:
(from the nov 17th outbreak)
see old graphics:
new graphics:
(from the nov 17th outbreak)
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 8:14 pm
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