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re: General Tornado Thread

Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:49 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:49 pm to
quote:

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS


I wouldn't be surprised to see a watch of some type issued for N. La at some point tonight.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
102582 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:50 pm to
Gotta have your priorities in order..

Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
26011 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:50 pm to
The Arkansas damage looks horrible.

There are a couple of smaller storms popping up in central/northern MS now. One near Tupelo and another not far from Batesville. Doesn't look like much, but with this kind of system, people in the area should keep their eye on it. Central Arkansas and southern Missouri still seem to be getting a lot right now.

I think Alabama and Miss will get the worst of it tomorrow....looks like it came through slower than anticipated.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 10:55 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:54 pm to
quote:

There are a couple of smaller storms popping up in central/northern MS now. One near Tupelo and another not far from Batesville. Doesn't look like much, but with this kind of system, people in the area should keep their eye on it.


And now storms firing as far west as just east of DFW, this is starting to look like a case of delayed but not denied.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
102582 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:54 pm to
Shreveport NWS

quote:

DISCUSSION... OTHER THAN EXTENDING SOME COUNTIES IN NE TX AND SW AR IN TORNADO WATCH 97 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. THIS EVENING A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ROTATE AS IT WOBBLES NORTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY HELPING TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WEATHER. LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR RE- DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION NEAR AND WITH A DRY LINE OUT TO THE WEST FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AND BY AROUND 6 TO 7 AM POSSIBLY NEARING A TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO JACKSONVILLE TEXAS LINE...MOVING TO NEAR AN EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA AND LUFKIN TEXAS NEAR MID DAY. /06/
Posted by LSU Fan SLU Grad
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2006
4893 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:55 pm to
quote:

I won't lay off him. Congrats in defending a guy driving by a woman who was screaming for her baby and continued to film.


You know zero details about that short video. People respond to situations differently. Yes, I'm defending him b/c I refuse to formulate conclusions about something I was not there to witness. Do you think people died b/c he shot a <1 minute video?
Posted by ptra
Member since Nov 2006
1458 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:55 pm to
Delete
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 10:58 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:59 pm to


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX...WRN LA...FAR SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280345Z - 280545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY THAT MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS
OVERTAKING MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF A WAVY DRYLINE ANALYZED
FROM ERN PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX TO WACO TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS ACCAS DEVELOPMENT OVER N-CNTRL TX FROM
WHICH COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM
NEAR/E OF THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OFFSET NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO ENCOURAGE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MLCAPE AROUND
2500-4000 J/KG OVERLAPPING WITH 45-70 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...INTENSE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ENSUE. CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO QLCS SEGMENTS
PERHAPS SUPPORTING A GREATER DMGG WIND RISK. GIVEN 30-40 KT OF
0-1-KM BULK SHEAR PER VWP DATA...A TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:59 pm to
quote:

Just saw a twitter from Storm Prediction Center that discussed the POSSIBILITY of issuing watches in east Texas, western central and north Louisiana. Nothing has been issued it is just a possibility.


I think there is a pretty high chance of that. It is starting to look like everything is running about 6 hours behind what was modeled last night / early this morning. However, the tornado threat should be reduced given the fact that day time heating is fading.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

I think there is a pretty high chance of that. It is starting to look like everything is running about 6 hours behind what was modeled last night / early this morning. However, the tornado threat should be reduced given the fact that day time heating is fading.



look up
Posted by ptra
Member since Nov 2006
1458 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:02 pm to
I deleted mine. I figured you would post it so I deleted mine. You can explain better than me. Small line of storms starting east of Dallas.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:05 pm to
quote:

look up


They must have issued that while I was fighting my phone to get my post up Last night and this morning the dry line was modeled much further east with a 500 mb wind max punching into the warm sector around 00z. That obviously never happened. Could end up being a wild night, hopefully the tornado threat is reduced. A lot of people in east Texas and N. La probably went to bed thinking the worst was over.
Posted by Tiger Nation 84
Member since Dec 2011
36643 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:06 pm to
Prayers for those in Arkansas, terrible terrible stuff today. That is really upsetting.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:07 pm to
This is why I would never say an area is all clear until the system has completely passed.
Posted by Tiger Nation 84
Member since Dec 2011
36643 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:09 pm to
I can't wait till this shite is over.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:10 pm to




TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...WW 103...WW 104...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE
DRYLINE FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHEAST TX. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 11:16 pm
Posted by Tiger Nation 84
Member since Dec 2011
36643 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:15 pm to
shite you can see the cell forming right now just east of Dallas and Waco areas headed right for the Shreveport area.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 11:16 pm
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
102582 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:20 pm to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:22 pm to
quote:

Jim Rockford



glad you didn't go to bed thinking it was over
remember none of this is an exact science, all they can see is there is a chance you could get hit, and its better to be safe than sorry as you have seen in arkansas.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:28 pm to
The cells east of Waco are kind of getting that look, hopefully they line out soon.
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