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re: Former Deputy Commander of NATO: West and Russia on course for war
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:28 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:28 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I think Russia is projecting power with the aim of legitimizing its annexation of Crimea. I also think that Russian projection of power helped thaw Iranian-US relations, as the Caspian Basin has been under the Russian sphere of influence, with the Iranians also wishing to project power to help secure their regional aims. I don't think the US is being as naive as people claim
Russia is selling modern SAM systems and a ton of other hardware to Iran while Iran is threatening to sink US ships in the Persian Gulf. There has been no thaw in US Iran relations. All that happened in the agreement we signed with them is we paid Iran billions to frick us in the arse. And now Iran is taking those billions to buy Russian military hardware.
2
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:33 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russia is selling modern SAM systems and a ton of other hardware to Iran while Iran is threatening to sink US ships in the Persian Gulf. There has been no thaw in US Iran relations. All that happened in the agreement we signed with them is we paid Iran billions to frick us in the arse. And now Iran is taking those billions to buy Russian military hardware.
Right. I mean that we are attempting to have Iran project power into the Caspian Basin and into central Asia, where they have ethnic and religious concerns, which the Russians don't like. The Iranians could choose to delay these regional concerns and focus on creating a pipeline to Europe to export their natural gas. Hence why they want Assad and not a Sunni in Syria. The Russians don't seem all that keen on a pipeline from the South Pars field to Europe, as right now they control that market. It's not as simple as the Russians and Iranians being aligned completely.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:35 pm to Darth_Vader
Darth, all that Russia shite is concerning. Ever wonder why NK and Iran are talking big now?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:36 pm to elprez00
quote:
Darth we had this discussion awhile back, and it all comes down to Air Superiority, and we (US) dont have enough assets in Europe to achieve it without a significant increase in planes and pilots.
True. Just as we gutted our ground forces in Europe, we have done the same with our air forces as well.
quote:
Who has the most capable AF in the EU? Germany? France? And how long could they hold out against the Russian AF?
I'd have to do some research but I'd say probably the British still have the biggest and best Air Force of all the European powers. Now the question is how long they and the rest of Europe could hold out while we redeploy assets from the US to the ETO. Just an educated guess, but if say considering both the Russian Air Force and more importantly the Russian SAM system would grind the western powers down within a week, maybe two.
quote:
And if Russia rolls, do you see any way this administration rolls out against them?
To be honest, I'm not sure. For starters, where things stand today I'm doubtful we could deploy to Europe any force capable of turning the tide in time to be of any use. I'd say it would take at least 4-6 weeks before even a scratch force capable of doing much of anything could be put out into the field in Europe. By that time it's most likely the fight would be all but over.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:39 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Darth, all that Russia shite is concerning. Ever wonder why NK and Iran are talking big now?
What we are seeing from Iran and NK is them talking shite because they know we won't do anything of substance about it. As for being a real threat, neither of those two fit the bill. Although it's not out of the question for that crazy fool in NK to go and do something stupid some day.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:40 pm to Darth_Vader
Assuming the fight would be all but over, would we (and remaining allies like Australia) try something like another D-Day, or just say frick it and let Russia have Europe? Seems like a massive naval redeployment would be called for... But that would leave the door wide open for China.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:41 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
What we are seeing from Iran and NK is them talking shite because they know we won't do anything of substance about it. As for being a real threat, neither of those two fit the bill. Although it's not out of the question for that crazy fool in NK to go and do something stupid some day.
I'm more referring to if Russia starts rolling, would it be a far cry for those two to start trouble?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:42 pm to Spaceman Spiff
Another D-Day will never happen. The main reason for this is the moment any force large enough to pull off a D-Day was concentrated for its landing, it would be obliterated by tactical nukes.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:44 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
I'm more referring to if Russia starts rolling, would it be a far cry for those two to start trouble?
Perhaps NK would. I don't see Iran doing anything though. Their conventional forces are still pretty weak. I guess they could roll into Iraq in order to bring "stability" there or something.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:46 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
just say frick it and let Russia have Europe?
Im curious what a Russian controlled Europe would look like. Do they become a bigger threat to the US? Or do they now feel like they are the world power and sit at the big boy table again and be content with what they have
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:46 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Another D-Day will never happen. The main reason for this is the money any force large enough to pull off a D-Day was concentrated for its landing, it would be obliterated by tactical nukes.
True. If the West can't put up enough of a defense to slow them until we can fully mobilize, then what? Does Russia annex it all? Do they stop at the English Channel?
Man I love these discussions!
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:50 pm to Darth_Vader
If you don't like what someone has to say, ignore what they said and attack their character. That'll happen because he spoke out of turn in government
Posted on 5/18/16 at 1:54 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
True. If the West can't put up enough of a defense to slow them until we can fully mobilize, then what? Does Russia annex it all? Do they stop at the English Channel?
Man I love these discussions!
That's a great question. Truth of the matter though is there's no way to know where they'd stop. Perhaps they'd stop after they retook the old Warsaw Pact countries. Perhaps they'd fulfill the old Cold War joke of two Russian tank commanders sitting in Paris sipping wine wondering who won the air war.
If I had to venture a guess, if it came down to it as things stand today with the current balance of power in Europe, if say the Russian would at least get to the Elbe before they stopped.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:03 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
If I had to venture a guess, if it came down to it as things stand today with the current balance of power in Europe, if say the Russian would at least get to the Elbe before they stopped.
I can see that. France has a policy of using nukes if its territories are compromised, which gives less incentive for the Russians to go that far west. I see the Russians going as far as Poland, though their immediate concern appears to be ensuring they have an outlet for Nato encirclement.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:06 pm to Darth_Vader
Cool. I mean doesn't everyone want to go out this way?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:07 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Im curious what a Russian controlled Europe would look like. Do they become a bigger threat to the US? Or do they now feel like they are the world power and sit at the big boy table again and be content with what they have
Unless they started a naval build up on a scale not seen since what we did in the US during WWII, Russia will never be a threat to the mainland US when it comes to anything short of nuclear weapons.
As for what a Russian dominated Europe would like, remember what countries such as Poland and East Germany looked like during the Cold War? That's pretty much what whatever portion of Europe Russian sized would look like.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:14 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
can see that. France has a policy of using nukes if its territories are compromised, which gives less incentive for the Russians to go that far west. I see the Russians going as far as Poland, though their immediate concern appears to be ensuring they have an outlet for Nato encirclement.
Great point about France and their stance on using nukes. Which there's one wildcard in all this though. What if at least battlefield tactical nukes are used by both sides even before the Russians overran Germany?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:17 pm to Darth_Vader
Well God help us if that happens. I'm deathly afraid the use of tactical nukes will lead to the justification of their more casual use.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:18 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Well God help us if that happens. I'm deathly afraid the use of tactical nukes will lead to the justification of their more casual use.
Same here. The real danger is someone on either side decides they can "control" the situation and limit things to just battlefield tactical nukes.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 2:21 pm to elprez00
quote:
So whats the reason for the power play? What does Russia hope to gain by a war? Nationalism?
Russia has no interest in war. This is american media at their best and nothing more.
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