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The war on Iran has caused a record disruption to oil supply and sent prices of crude and other commodities sharply higher. Economists still doubt the U.S. is at much risk of a recession.

The consensus of economists surveyed this week by The Wall Street Journal is that inflation will be temporarily higher and growth and unemployment largely the same, assuming the oil shock is temporary.

“Given the ongoing war in the Middle East, surging oil prices, high tariffs, AI and the severe constraints on immigration, it is worthwhile noting how resilient the U.S. economy has been so far,” said Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group. “But we must not take this resilience for granted.”

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Economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 32%, up modestly from 27% in January. Asked how high crude oil would need to climb to tip the recession probability above 50%, economists gave a range of responses: from $90 a barrel to $200, with an average of $138. Asked how long oil prices would need to be at an elevated level, they said from four weeks to 55 weeks, with an average duration of 14 weeks. U.S. oil futures closed at $96.32 a barrel Wednesday, compared with a February average of about $65.

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On average, economists forecast gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to grow 2.1% in the fourth quarter this year from a year earlier. That was down incrementally from 2.2% in January. They expect the unemployment rate will be 4.5% in December, matching their forecast in January, before the war. Last month the unemployment rate was 4.4%.

In contrast to growth, economists have turned more pessimistic on inflation. They expect the consumer-price index will be up by 2.9% in December 2026 from a year earlier. In January, they expected a more modest 2.6%.

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