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Message
re: Average interest rate on 30 year mortgage rises to 7.59%, highest since December 2000
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:13 pm to slackster
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:13 pm to slackster
quote:
Not exactly all their fault. Lots of parties to blame on both sides of the aisle.
Yes, but the Fed trying for the soft landing is just prolonging the agony. Especially for the middle class. It feels like we should have ripped the bandaid off just to get it over with.
The soft landing looks more and more out of reach anyway.
This post was edited on 9/21/23 at 9:14 pm
1
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:15 pm to stout
quote:
Yes, but the Fed trying for the soft landing is just prolonging the agony. Especially for the middle class. It feels like we should have ripped the bandaid off just to get it over with.
Multiple consecutive .75bps increases are the economic equivalent of ripping off the bandaid. The banking system got torched as a result. There are a lot of nuances at play.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:20 pm to slackster
quote:
Multiple consecutive .75bps increases are the economic equivalent of ripping off the bandaid.
Yet it was still too subtle to tame inflation quicker.
quote:
The banking system got torched as a result.
Wasn't the issue that the banks who got hosed held onto cheap bonds way too long?
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:20 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:
Home mortgage rates averaged about 8.85% at the onset of the Carter administration in 1977. However, by the end of Carter's presidency in 1981, home mortgage rates averaged a whopping 16.64%.
This isn’t the 80’s. Home prices have increased by over 500%.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:22 pm to stout
The best time to buy real estate is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:23 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
The second best time is
About 3 years ago
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:24 pm to stout
Hmmm wonder what happened in 2021
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:25 pm to BayouBlitz
FJB - worst fu¢king president ever
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:25 pm to stout
quote:
Yet it was still too subtle to tame inflation quicker.
This is one of the big problems. No one has the balls to do what is needed to fix the problem. Yeah it’s going to suck, it’s going to be hard, but people in charge would rather kick the can down the road to stay in office.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:26 pm to stout
quote:
Wasn't the issue that the banks who got hosed held onto cheap bonds way too long?
They still have a lot of them. It’s not cheap bonds, it’s just long dated bonds. Duration means that prices of bonds move inversely with rates. Even an 8% coupon 10-yr bond will go down in value as rates increase.
Banks hold long duration bonds in their reserves. Those reserve values drop precipitously if the price of the bonds are getting destroyed by a 375 bps increase in rates over the last 3 years.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:27 pm to SlowFlowPro
Nothing worse than energy and food inflation - guess who caused that? Brandon and his Crackhead business partner
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:27 pm to slackster
quote:
it’s just long dated bonds
That's what I meant. Sorry
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:30 pm to CocodrieBaw
quote:
Nothing worse than energy and food inflation - guess who caused that? Brandon and his Crackhead business partner
Biden sucks and deserves a lot of blame, but a good chunk of this is also a global problem.
OPEC cutting production multiple times is not exactly at the feet of Biden, for example.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:30 pm to slackster
quote:
They still have a lot of them. It’s not cheap bonds, it’s just long dated bonds. Duration means that prices of bonds move inversely with rates. Even an 8% coupon 10-yr bond will go down in value as rates increase. Banks hold long duration bonds in their reserves. Those reserve values drop precipitously if the price of the bonds are getting destroyed by a 375 bps increase in rates over the last 3 years.
Who woulda thunk banks putting reserves in Treasury Notes would get criticized after what happened in 2008-2010?
Anyway, the long duration doesn’t even matter. Well, it matters from a profitability perspective but not from a solvency perspective……unless you have a bank run like SVB.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:31 pm to slackster
quote:
Biden sucks and deserves a lot of blame, but a good chunk of this is also a global problem.
Biden admin trying to usher in "green energy" at all costs is a huge factor with or without OPEC cutting production.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:34 pm to CocodrieBaw
quote:
Nothing worse than energy and food inflation - guess who caused that? Brandon and his Crackhead business partner
I'd add the 2020/2021 $900B stimmy package and $1.4T Omnibus bill into it as well but that's not as cool to admit (or remember).
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:38 pm to slackster
quote:
Biden sucks and deserves a lot of blame, but a good chunk of this is also a global problem.
OPEC cutting production multiple times is not exactly at the feet of Biden, for example.
OPEC wouldn't cut production if USA increased production to fill the gap. OPEC only does that to raise the ppb. If USA filled the gap, that extra money comes to us. This isn't Econ 8937. This is basic shite. OPEC knew they could cut production to make more money because they knew Biden wouldn't allow extra production. Some of yall are so fricking stupid it's like playing cards with my 5 year old niece.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:38 pm to Bruco
quote:
Anyway, the long duration doesn’t even matter. Well, it matters from a profitability perspective but not from a solvency perspective……unless you have a bank run like SVB.
Ehh, a lot of banks used and continue to use the hell out of the bank term funding program.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:40 pm to slackster
FJB
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:41 pm to slackster
BTW, Blackrock says they are not buying single-family homes.
We want to make perfectly clear: BlackRock is not buying individual houses in the U.S.
We want to make perfectly clear: BlackRock is not buying individual houses in the U.S.
quote:
Bottom line: BlackRock is an active investor in the U.S. real estate market, but we are not among the institutional investors buying single-family homes.
This post was edited on 9/21/23 at 9:42 pm
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