Jameis Winston is drawing lots of wagers in one particular 2022 NFL betting market

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The NFL season is still almost 100 days away (who's counting?), but the futures markets are going strong at Caesars Sportsbook and other mobile betting options in Louisiana.

Of course, there's the old standbys: Betting on the 2022 division winners, win totals, Super Bowl champion or NFL MVP.

There are others, too. At Caesars, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, one particular futures market is attracting long-shot bets on New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston.

Winston is down to 40/1 in odds to lead the NFL in yards passing for the 2022 season. This is a significant move from his opening odds of 75/1 as he recovers from a major knee injury suffered Oct. 31.

“We’ll see how Jameis comes back off injury,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, in a prepared statement. “(Michael) Thomas should be back, and they signed Jarvis Landry. There are clearly bettors who feel he’s primed for a bounce off the injury. People want to search for value, that’s the whole name of the game — getting in before everyone else sees results. They’re clearly guessing that things will open up with the upgrades at receiver, making it possible for Winston to have a really solid year.”

The favorite to lead the league in passing is last year's leader, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. He's listed at +700 after cashing bets last year at as high as 10/1.

Brady is followed closely by Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+850), Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (+900) and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+900).

Next are Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Bengals quarterback and former LSU star Joe Burrow at +1000 each, then the Las Vegas Raiders' Derek Carr and the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen at +1200 each.

Winston led the league with 5,109 yards passing in 2019 with the Buccaneers. The Saints also are no stranger to having the league leader in passing, with Drew Brees topping the charts seven times, including three straight seasons from 2014 to 2016.

Of course, that was under the offensive-minded Sean Payton. It remains to be seen how former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach could change the offense.

Caesars Sportsbook reports the liability on Winston is this market is more than five times any other player. A bettor in Virginia has $2,000 on Winston 50/1 for potential winnings of $100,000, and a Nevada wager staked $1,000 on Winston 80/1 for potential winnings of $80,000.

“It’s interesting that the money going Winston’s way is not just from Louisiana bettors,” Pullen said. “When you give out those odds and take bets, you’re going to rack up some liability. Just because that liability’s still there, sometimes you just have to sit with it and just accept it. We’ve done this before, and we know it’s there. But we’re not going to overreact to it this early, you just can’t keep lowering and lowering it. You’ll see those more drastic changes when we see live action on the field.”

Caesars says Winston has received more tickets in this market than any other QB at 18% (followed by Allen at 15%) and more money (27%, with Brady second at 22%).

Besides Brady and Winston, the only active player who has led the NFL in passing is Deshaun Watson, who did so in 2020 with the Texans; he's with the Browns now but is listed at just +2000 as he could be facing a suspension stemming from 24 civil lawsuits filed by women accusing him of sexual misconduct.

In addition to last season, Brady led the league three times with the New England Patriots: 2005, 2007 and 2017.


Click the link at the top for the complete list of odds to be the 2022 NFL leader in yards passing. The odds are from Caesars Sportsbook as of June 7.