Reckless and stupid gamble of a trade?

Reckless and stupid trade? Let's look at the 2 scenarios:

A. You pick 23rd in the draft. You have a chance to move up to 13th to get a guy you have rated 6th on your board. The cost is your pick next season. You make the deal and the pick.

B. Same scenario, except you don't make the deal, counting on your team to get drawn in the lottery. Something that has happened exactly twice in the team's existence. Something that did not happen this year despite being 4th worst. Something that did not happen for a Utah team that tanked for that reason and is now stuck with a guy who doesn't want to be there. Something that will not happen 60-70% of the time, maybe even higher depending on where that pick is.

So, pick a player 7 spots lower than you rate him to go with the other player you picked that you rated 6th, or pray that the odds are ever in your favor during next year's reaping ceremony.

Which one is gambling again?

The NBA Draft Lottery is like the actual lottery: it's a carrot designed to drive narrative by coercing the gullible to play. It's like going to a casino: maybe you will get lucky, but the house almost always wins.

So, again which choice is reckless?

I'm reminded of a quote from the show Reacher, "Reacher doesn't deal in luck. He deals in facts and statistics." The statistics say don't count on the lottery.