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3rd Quarter Malaise: Reality or Myth?
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:57 am
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:57 am
I was curious about the constant meme of "Hornets/Pelicans always get outplayed in the 3rd." I have felt this way at times, but was not entirely convinced, and wanted to see if the numbers bore it out.
All numbers are from NBA.com and are the margin in points per game for the 3rd quarter
2013-2014: -1.9 (2nd worst quarter)
2012-2013: -.4 (the best quarter)
2011-2012: -1.7 (the worst quarter)
2010-2011: .6 (2nd best quarter)
This season's numbers are still a bit all over the place. The Pelicans have been bad, but the Thunder have been nearly 1 point worse. I don't know how much we can trust those numbers at this point in the season. I'm happy to come back after each month and see what's going on. That aside, I'm not sure we can say that there is a consistent, yearly, massive 3rd quarter deficiency.
A couple observations:
1) Bad teams are outscored more often. Water is also wet. But it bears repeating that the 2011-2013 Hornets were bad teams. They won 48 of 147 games for a .326 winning percentage. The only positive 3rd quarter year saw the Hornets win 46 games for a .561 winning percentage. I'm not sure we should have expected much more from the 11-13 teams given the talent, youth, and health of those rosters. Obviously there is better talent this year and we all expect improvement from the woeful -1.9.
2) Countless coaches and athletes have echoed some variation of the sentiment that the bad is remembered more vividly than the good. We fans can also be guilty of this. We remember the collapses and the terrible plays because we want our team to win so badly. And sometimes we forget that it was only one game out of 82. Last season's flawed team, despite some terrible performances we all remember, had it's best scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.
That's not to say that criticism is not warranted or needed. It is. Or that the coaching doesn't stale and the players don't lose focus. It does and they do. Just sometimes it helps to step back and survey the scene from a different perspective.
All numbers are from NBA.com and are the margin in points per game for the 3rd quarter
2013-2014: -1.9 (2nd worst quarter)
2012-2013: -.4 (the best quarter)
2011-2012: -1.7 (the worst quarter)
2010-2011: .6 (2nd best quarter)
This season's numbers are still a bit all over the place. The Pelicans have been bad, but the Thunder have been nearly 1 point worse. I don't know how much we can trust those numbers at this point in the season. I'm happy to come back after each month and see what's going on. That aside, I'm not sure we can say that there is a consistent, yearly, massive 3rd quarter deficiency.
A couple observations:
1) Bad teams are outscored more often. Water is also wet. But it bears repeating that the 2011-2013 Hornets were bad teams. They won 48 of 147 games for a .326 winning percentage. The only positive 3rd quarter year saw the Hornets win 46 games for a .561 winning percentage. I'm not sure we should have expected much more from the 11-13 teams given the talent, youth, and health of those rosters. Obviously there is better talent this year and we all expect improvement from the woeful -1.9.
2) Countless coaches and athletes have echoed some variation of the sentiment that the bad is remembered more vividly than the good. We fans can also be guilty of this. We remember the collapses and the terrible plays because we want our team to win so badly. And sometimes we forget that it was only one game out of 82. Last season's flawed team, despite some terrible performances we all remember, had it's best scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.
That's not to say that criticism is not warranted or needed. It is. Or that the coaching doesn't stale and the players don't lose focus. It does and they do. Just sometimes it helps to step back and survey the scene from a different perspective.
4
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:58 am to corndeaux
It's not always the worst but it seems like we have a lead at halftime it's usually the worst - which is why it stands out. Your "research" doesn't account for that. 
Posted on 11/19/13 at 10:08 am to LasVegasBandit
So your perception clouds your judgement?
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:06 am to corndeaux
Filter your search by games in which we led at halftime and then lost.
I guaran-damn-tee you that it was the 3rd quarter that was our undoing far more often than the 4th quarter.
Cloudy my arse
I guaran-damn-tee you that it was the 3rd quarter that was our undoing far more often than the 4th quarter.
Cloudy my arse
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:08 am to LasVegasBandit
quote:
Filter your search by games in which we led at halftime and then lost.
So, we tend to get outscored in the 3rd in games where we get outscored in the second half? I think you're ready to write your thesis.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:12 am to LasVegasBandit
God you're awful.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:15 am to corndeaux
quote:
Filter your search by games in which we led at halftime and then lost. I guaran-damn-tee you that it was the 3rd quarter that was our undoing far more often than the 4th quarter.
This shite right here
10-15 point leads at halftime disappearing by the start of the 4th
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 11:16 am
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:16 am to Jakesonaplane
quote:
This shite right here
I bet if you filter it by games that we lead after the 3rd and lose, our 4ths are horrendous.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:40 am to LasVegasBandit
This is brilliant.
You make a claim without substaniating it and then ask me to prove it for you. Do it yourself or GTFO.
I do know this, the 12-13 Hornets had a better 2nd half scoring margin than first. So tell me, just how many games did they blow 10-15 point leads in the 3rd?
You make a claim without substaniating it and then ask me to prove it for you. Do it yourself or GTFO.
I do know this, the 12-13 Hornets had a better 2nd half scoring margin than first. So tell me, just how many games did they blow 10-15 point leads in the 3rd?
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 11:41 am
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:42 am to JimmyLoincloth
The Lakers game last year that everyone talks about. Outscored by 1 in the 3rd. 24 in the 4th.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:58 am to corndeaux
quote:
This is brilliant.
You make a claim without substaniating it and then ask me to prove it for you. Do it yourself or GTFO.
I do know this, the 12-13 Hornets had a better 2nd half scoring margin than first. So tell me, just how many games did they blow 10-15 point leads in the 3rd?
The whole argument is flawed. If you are up in the first half and lose, you are absolutely outscored in the second. If you are outscored in the second half, there is a very good chance you didn't dominate the 3rd.
Looking at all the losses, Indiana and Utah were the only times we led at half. Indiana outscored us only by 7 in the 3rd, but 12 in the 4th. Utah outscored us by a whopping 6 pts in the 3rd and 10 in the 4th.
Son got da derp
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:58 am to corndeaux
Does it really matter if it's the 3rd or 4th?
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:00 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Does it really matter if it's the 3rd or 4th?
We have only lost twice when we led at the half.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:06 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Does it really matter if it's the 3rd or 4th?
Not at all.
I looked at the 4th quarter margins as well, but decided it was already too long of a post.
-.4 this year, -.7 last, -.9 in 11-12, and -.4 in 10-11.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:33 pm to Jakesonaplane
quote:
This shite right here
10-15 point leads at halftime disappearing by the start of the 4th
Oh look, somebody besides me is actually a fan of the Hornets/Pelicans teams and watches games on a regular basis.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:37 pm to JimmyLoincloth
quote:
So, we tend to get outscored in the 3rd in games where we get outscored in the second half? I think you're ready to write your thesis.
Dude, I'm not the one who came up with "Montyball" and "Third Quarter Malaise". Those terms came about for a reason.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:37 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Not at all.
I looked at the 4th quarter margins as well, but decided it too clearly proved LasVegasBandit to be correct.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:41 pm to JimmyLoincloth
quote:
We have only lost twice when we led at the half.
I don't really care how the losses happened. But if you lose leads in say 5 games a season, isn't that too much? shite last year we lost something like a 20 point lead to a 17 win Orlando team and allowed LA to go on a 33-9 run to close out the game in back to back nights. That's enough for most people.
Anyway, losing is losing. It's not like losing 20 point games to bad Laker and Magic teams this season is any better than "only" losing halftime leads twice in 10 games.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:47 pm to GynoSandberg
This is an interesting point.
How many games did they lose after taking double digit leads? Was it above, below, or the same as the league average? I have no idea but probably worth looking into.
I do think some of those losses can be attributed to regressing to the mean. The last two teams were just bad at basketball- coaching included. While disappointing and frustrating to watch, being up big was probably more of an anomaly than blowing the big lead.
How many games did they lose after taking double digit leads? Was it above, below, or the same as the league average? I have no idea but probably worth looking into.
I do think some of those losses can be attributed to regressing to the mean. The last two teams were just bad at basketball- coaching included. While disappointing and frustrating to watch, being up big was probably more of an anomaly than blowing the big lead.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:49 pm to corndeaux
And like I said in the OP, those two back to back losses stick in our mind very clearly. Hell I still remember a PDX game they blew at home during the Paul years.
But that's just 2 out of 82 games. It could be a sign of a larger problem or just a fluke.
But that's just 2 out of 82 games. It could be a sign of a larger problem or just a fluke.
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