re: Unofficial 2019 Australian Open thread.

Not watching either but against Zverev he was just hitting slice backhands over and over like bad-wrist Delpo. He looked even worse than usual.

Pouille -230 Live is sort of goofy.

I'm bitching out on this Pouille -275 with a 2-0 lead. He's just too French to trust.

That said, you would have to despise money to take Raonic in the +200 range to come back from a 2-0 hole.

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I'm bitching out on this Pouille -275 with a 2-0 lead. He's just too French to trust.

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It's a legitimate consideration.

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Trying to find an angle

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This is the problem with servebot matches in general.

But that's also why I think Raonic should have never been -700 to begin with.

I just put some money on Raonic to win and on Pouille to win 3rd set. This is my first foray into live betting. It's immediately addicting. I'm gonna have to watch myself on this.

I feel like the odds variations are too extreme. I think you could make some money by just betting the + odds at the start of the set and waiting to see if at any point the other player gets + odds, and then just bet them. I think this would happen in a lot of sets.

Raonic is Houdini

That forehand was French as F

Raonic to the chair ump: "You're incapable"

One important thing about live betting is that you are basically playing against an algorithm that updates automatically with some human supervision. My assumption is that certain factors are built into the odds pre-match.

For example, certain players are more likely than others to break back when getting broken. Or the obvious stuff like a male serving for a match at 5-1 isn't the same as a female in the same situation (looking at you Serena). And since Pouille was only -275 earlier with a 2-0 lead, apparently there may be a French factor included as well.

So your biggest edges will come from picking up on little things that weren't foreseen pre-match, or reading injuries and acting quickly. But I've been burned by this before when a dude pops a couple pills and 10 minutes later returns to normal.

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I feel like the odds variations are too extreme

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This is true. If you bet on a returner at 30-40 you will be in great shape if he breaks, but if he doesn't break (more likely), the swing is just as massive.

Live betting is on my ever-growing list of shite to study in depth when I decide to make some time.