re: Poz on Hamilton and Pujols

here are the facts:


compare anyone to anyone, doesn't matter. the 2 vets will or won't produce for the full 5 years. NONE of you know for sure either way so the stats about what happened to others their age is ridiculous

Hosmer may or may not have a better 5 years than both or won't. Again, none of us really know


so if you are legit, you take the two vets and hope it pays off


anyone saying otherwise is too far in their own head- FACT

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, I looked at the top five producers in 2006 and see how they did the last five seasons (2007-2012). Your argument was that more recent players don't have the same decline as players from the 80s or 90s. So I tested that theory against the most recently completed 5-season timeperiod.

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my point is you cant just look at one season, see how they did for that one season, and them compare it to the next 5 seasons.

That's why I used their career averages when I posted the players I did.

And i didn't really cherry pick the players i brought up. I thought of players that mostly played in the AL at a corner position, benefited from the DH as they got older, and who were great sluggers. Honestly I stopped looking after these guys because I couldn't find anyone that slipped dramatically.

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that was the article's thesis. It works for any season. The article used 1988 (and also used WAR, I changed it to OPS+ due to my dislike of WAR). You argued against that thesis saying recent times have changed that due to advances in health and nutrition. So I used 2006, the most recent year we could use and have a full five-year lookback.

And the theory held.

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The theory held because it was cherry picked data that inclines a significant drop in most players.

The original data of 32/33 year old guys comes out with Sosa and Bret Boone, but in the middle of their ginormous steroid seasons(both career years)

if fishes out Lonnie Smith, who at age 33 had his best year of his career BY FAR.

it features Joe MOrgan a light hitting second baseman. i wont even get into him

And then George Brett....which in the paragraph they write about him, sneakily add in the last line "who won a battling title and made 4 all star games after age 32"


honestly that is not a good way to come up with examples.... Unless you are predetermined to predict failure for the Angels & Pujols/Hamilton.

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The fact Emil Brown was in the top five Age 31 players in 2006 shows how quickly players age. We scrape the barrel pretty quickly

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it doesn't mean anything, actually.

Wait, it does mean something actually. It tells me that in this season, there were no good players at age 31, or that there were some, and they were hurt.

Why? Because his monstorous 109OPS+ pales in comparison to all the guys I just posted in the same age season. AGain, just making this list of players a complete joke and irrelevant to the type of guys we are talking about.

The age cycle isn't always going to be in line with every player.

Which is why if you actually look at my examples, you could see that. MVP caliber players. Corner position players/DH's. Huge power hitters. ie, the same mold as Hamilton and Pujols.

Why limit it to one specific season, when you can look at any player's season at the same age in any given year? And if they have actually played through age 36....Well by-golly!!! Look at that!!

^^^ That makes way too much sense. You can count back or forward 5 years with any player that has played enough seasons. it doesnt have to be, oh... 2002... or 2005.... or the year Emil Brown was top 5 in OPS+ of all players who happened to be 31 that specific year

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And guy like Abreu, Damon, and Nomar WERE great players. Are we arguing that the age 32 group there isn't full of great players. Todd Helton wasn't great?

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Abreu and Damon were speed guys with decent power.

Nomar was a smaller guy(possibe roider as well), with injury problems. Yes, he broke down.

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This rather supports another on of my pet theories: I hate when people knock players for being "mere compilers". It's really HARD to be a compiler. It's tough to continue to be good enough to hang on and keep a starting job and keep producing in your mid to late 30s. Only truly great players can usually do it.

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This has gotten way off track if you are talking about compilers.

We are talking how Pujols and Hamilton will perform within the next 5 years compared to Sal Perez and Hosmer(who is still a prospect)

Well, clearly. This isn't about Hosmer. I like the kid, too, but he did have a 307 OBP last year... which sucks. I'm not thrilled with the examples Poz used, which he used cuz he's a Royals fan. I'm talking more globally: the pot of under 23 year olds showing promise versus the group of the top 31 and 32 year olds. You're better off with the kids, usually. But group comparisons break down on an individual level because, yes, anything can happen with a sample size of one. I'm talking about playing the percentages.


As for your examples, each of your seven players had a teammate who put up a great year in their age 31 or 32 season (except Edgar, I used Buhner's age 29 season) in the same year or within one year of the season you used. Let's see how those teammates did:

Lopez (32) 328/378/687 169
Varitek (31) 273/351/512 120
Buhner (29) 279/394/542 138
J Gonzalez (31) 325/370/590 148
Dye (32) 315/385/622 151
Belle (31) 328/399/655 172
Karros (31) 304/362/550 133

Juan Gonzalez had won two MVP's and Albert Belle should have won two. Lopez and Varitek were putting together near Hall of Fame careers at this point. Dye and Buhner were star players... only Karros is a bit of a reach, but those Dodger teams Sheffield were on were pretty young. Anyway, here's how those guys did:

32-36
Lopez 288/337/459 107 (out of baseball after 3 seasons)
Varitek 260/354/433 102
Buhner 252/367/517 126
Gonzo 286/327/503 109 (out of baseball after 4 seasons)
Dye 267/334/496 112 (out of baseball after 3 seasons)
Belle 289/374/509 127 (out of baseball after 2 seasons)
Karros 255/317/418 93

OK, I'll spot you Karros. But who saw Lopez out of baseball in three years? Or Varitek becoming so ordinary? The reason Edgar is a Hall of Fame candidate and Buhner isn't is their late careers, which no one could've guessed at the time. Dye flamed out, and I bet most people had him as a stronger longterm bet than Konerko (who actually was often compared to Karros as prospects). And Gonzo and Belle... I mean.... WTF? If someone had offered you Gonzo and Belle or Thome and Thomas, I think most people would've taken the first pair. Yet they bombed out in spectacular fashion.

You picked out perhaps the seven best late careers of the last 25 years, and each of them had a teammate of the same age who failed to have that great late career. And most of them were completely unpredictable (especially Albert Belle... what happened?)

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You picked out perhaps the seven best late careers of the last 25 years,

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i must be really lucky, cause it wasn't very calculated.

as for the guys you mentioned...

albert belle had a degenerate hip

juan gonzalez never played a full season after age 31...mainly cause his body broke down....most will say cause of steroids. I dont think it was age.

Javy Lopez & Varitek were catchers. They wear down pretty quick, though Varitek caught until he was 40. He never really was "that good". He played similarly late in his career than he did most of his early career. give or take 1 or 2 seasons


Lopez had his steroid year, like Bret Boone, which coincidentally was his age 32 year.


And i dont think those are the 7 best guys. There are more that have had slight drop off.

3 guys i mentioned originally i didnt even include in the latest grouping of players.

Tori Hunter, David Ortiz, and Berkman.

lets also throw out

Raffy Palmeiro
Jim Edmonds
andre gallaraga
larry walker
jeff kent
tony gwynn


there are 10 more for you.


Again, i think the main point is we know players generally decline with age. But what we must keep in mind is that even if the best players in the game decline, you still have a pretty damn good player.

Which goes back to the theory in the original article. It has taken on a life of its own with "will Pujols & Hamilton decline", instead of what it was intended to do, "is Hosmer/Perez> Hamilton/Pujols the next 5 years".

Even if Hamilton/Pujols decline, history shows that they still will be formidable players.

so their OPS+ may not be 180 or 190...but if its even 140, they are cracking the top 10 in their respective league annually. I'll take that anyway.

This thread gave me a headache

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I literally have no idea what you are trying to say here. I've read your post three times and I can't make heads or tails of it.

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it's simple. You can look at any players age 31 season (as I did).


You:

took one year, 2006, & pulled the 5 best seasons of 31 year olds just for that year. Which is why 2 of the guys you pulled were Gary Matthews & Emil Brown.



Me:

Instead of limiting my player range by 1 specific year, I targeted former all stars all who were old enough to have played through a 36 year old season.


For instance. Manny Ramirez turned 31 in 2003. Lance Berkman turned 31 in 2007.

By not limiting myself to only 2006, I was able to find comparable players to Pujols/Hamilton, & show how their career paths materialized.


Do you not see how picking 1 season is random? Not all players turn 31 in the same year. That is the reason Emil Brown was on your list. Can you post some other players that played that season at age 31?

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You can't think of corner OF's who were great sluggers who declined after great age 31-32 seasons.

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The thing is the majority of guys you are finding broke down because of injuries, not because their skills declined.

Belle- degenerate hip.
Gonzo- numerous injuries, suspected by Rangers because of steroids
Buhner- spent career on turf
Sexson- ok i'll buy him

jermaine dye- last we saw he was still a productive player at 35. Didnt think he was being paid enough so he hasnt played since

Ryan Howard- declined but still playing at a high level. Again, part of my point. Great players, even declining, his 30 HRs/120RBI? Even with a freak knee injury at end of 11'.

Morneau- concussions. Seriously? It may end his career.

Kevin mitchell- was never that good outside of 1 or 2 seasons

Caminitti- one great year when he admitted to using steroids when he won the MVP

I know a lot of time age and injury go hand and hand. But its almost impossible to predict injuries. The majority of these guys crashed because of injuries. I am talking the ones that just fell off the earth.

Again as i said above there are a lot of guys, that even at 80% of their old production, are still ALL stars!!!!! That will be pujols and hamilton almost assuredly if they dont crash because of injuries.

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I mean, data tends to show what we want if we only look at the data which supports our thesis.

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yea, ive been saying this for 2 days now. The whole original article was based on that. At least your opening up to the fact these guys are not doomed.

I was merely showing there was an opposite side. I found 16 guys without digging to far that were able to sustain production into their mid 30s.


SO yes, you can find guys on each side that support either thesis.

My question is why do you act like every player will decline? And that their decline will be sudden & dramtic, like Pedro Guererro, or have a career ending injury like Albert Belle? "Death, taxes, & the decline"......