re: Official French Open Discussion Thread

No one is beating Rafa. He was -180 before the tourney started. There hasn't been a line on his matches yet.

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Why do think this? Can you elaborate at all?

I'm a big fan of delpo. I think he's the 4th best player in tennis. He isn't as consistent as Murray, but I think that's largely attributable to the fact that he's injury prone. But if you remember Delpo in the summer of 2009 till the end of the year, he was arguably the best player in tennis. He won 4 US Open series tournaments, I believe. Then the US Open. And then (I think) he won the ATP world tour finals.

I've seen him play and his forehand is otherworldly. It doesn't even make any sense how hard he hits it.

But I can't think of why his game would be kryptonite to Nadal.

Watching Nadal when he is at his very best, I always wondered how anybody could beat him. The reasons that Djokovic had his number is because (a) Djokovic moves just as well as Nadal, and (b) Djokovic has the best return of serve in the game, which takes advantage of Nadal's relatively weak second serve.

I think any player that you create in a lab to exploit Nadal, first and foremost, is going to have to be able to move with him. Otherwise, he'll just get to one more ball.

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Your points about Djok matching up so well because of his incredible mobility and unreal return ability are spot on. The reason I would agree that Del Po is such a tough matchup for Rafa is because he's one of the few guys on tour who can generate enough pace on his own to hit through Rafa's heavy ground strokes.

Fed, for example, is a master at taking someone like Del Po's pace and using it against him. However, he struggles some at generating the kind of pace off Rafa's divebombing ground strokes, especially from his one-handed backhand. When Del Po is on, he can take a shot at eye-level and flatten it for a winner. He's one of the few on tour who can do it.

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Athletic big fellas with two handers are the kryptonite (not some clown like Ivo Karlovic). Isner took him five last year. Soderling has the only win at RG against him. Delpo is the only person I've ever seen embarrass Rafa -- see the 2009 U.S. Open (yes, I know about Rafa's knee and recovery issues). And I think Nole goes 6'2".

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I'm confused about your last sentence on Nole. Are you trying to put him in the category of "athletic big fellas" because he is 6-2?

I would have to respectfully disagree if you are. Nole is an inch taller than Rafa, but that inch -- coupled with his gumby-like flexibility -- helps him more in the court coverage department than the power department. To be clear, he can hit the ball plenty hard. But I don't think you can lump him in with guys like Soderling and Delpo who, if they're on their A game, can simply hit you off the court.

Don't you think Djok is back to having stretches where his toss/serve wander a bit and he is breathing hard again when he gets tight. Didn't Rafa 3 & 1 him last month?

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Don't you think Djok is back to having stretches where his toss/serve wander a bit and he is breathing hard again when he gets tight. Didn't Rafa 3 & 1 him last month?

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I haven't seen much of Djoker play in this tournament. I'll need to be better about setting my DVR this week. Do you get the impression his toss is wandering on him?

Rafa dropped a 3 & 1 on Djoker in the Monte Carlo final. But Djoker's grandfather had just passed, and he wasn't there mentally at all. But then Rafa beat Djoker again in the final of Rome. That was last week. Rafa beat him 7-5, 6-3. I put more stock in the Rome match as Djoker had no excuses not to be playing his best.

It seems to me that his toss comes and goes and he has enough game to see his way through, play a few big points, and get a win. Any lapse against Rafa is fatal on clay.

Fed is 11-2 vs. Delpo lifetime and 3-0 on the clay. He's happy as he'll Berdych lost as Fed can take advantage of his edge in mobility better against delpo.

The only men's dog that looks attractive on paper is actually Tsonga who is 5-5 lifetime vs. Djok but has lost the last 3 including a 5 & 1 In Rome where Tsonga let the first set get away and the couldn't get past the disappointment in the second. The fans will bolster him but I think the stage is getting a little too big for him. I just can't pull the trigger on it.

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The juice on big favorites can be $1000 or more. They are scaring you into no bet or the dog.

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Yeah, I don't really get the tennis lines. It really does seem like they are going out of their way to make a bet on the favorite as unattractive as possible. But that doesn't fit with the business model of a casino. They can't really want 90% of the money on the dog in every match. But I was looking at some betting trend numbers last night, and in every instance the money was heavily skewed towards the dog. Usually about 80% of the money was on the dog. This was of course only a single day's worth of data, but it makes sense that it would be that way all the time.

And that leaves me scratching my head. What am I missing?

I'm with on all four picks.

Nadal won't drop a set.

Could see Ferrer a little closer than that.

When was the last time in a major you can remember two matches where a man put 0 & 0 sets on an opponent this late in a major? ( Rafa won 17 straight games against Monaco and Gasquet won 14 straight vs. Haas. )?

It's typically 30 cents juice when the prop is like 70/30 or less. As we get more lopsided probability, I suppose they have to balance the wagers as best they can. If the odds are really 10/1, you'll see a line like 1500/500. They are discouraging action by making the favorite to pricey and the dogs too unrewarding.

Like your Rafa bet, it's a virtual lock, but you have to have a huge bankroll to make any significant cash and, at some point, he'll pull a hamstring and they'll pound somebody's arse.

My site has a no bet if a player retires within the first 55 minutes, but you are exposed after that.