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Message
Link to my own College FB Rankings - OSU got screwed
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:24 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:24 am
LINK
For the record though, I'm very excited LSU will get to rematch Bama. I HATE COLLEGE OT and this will give us a chance to settle it in regulation. I think Bama caught LSU on a bad day in Tuscaloosa - we were between QB's, literally, during the game. I don't expect this next match to be that close, look for LSU to pull away with a decisive victory.
4
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:26 am to Harpua
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:27 am to Harpua
Sure like the Big-12
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:28 am to TDawg1313
quote:
Sure like the Big-12
The big 12 had a great OOC performance this year - my computer rankings are consistent with the others in that regard.
what I don't understand is how I can use an ELO system and get OSU #2 - yet Sagarin CLAIMS to use an ELO - and gets OSU #3.
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:29 am to Harpua
quote:
The big 12 had a great OOC performance this year - my computer rankings are consistent with the others in that regard.
You have Oklahoma and Baylor in the top 10. You have K State in the top 5. You have Texas and Mizzou in the top 15. aTm in the top 20. Iowa State in the top 25. What the frick, brah?
This post was edited on 12/7/11 at 12:31 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:34 am to TN Bhoy
quote:
You have Oklahoma and Baylor in the top 10. You have K State in the top 5. You have Texas and Mizzou in the top 15. aTm in the top 20. Iowa State in the top 25. What the frick, brah?
The other computer polls are similar in that regard.
Like I said - the Big 12 whipped arse out of conference this year.
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:35 am to Harpua
So, Crown College in MN is the worst collegiate football team in America.
Clemson can't get a break in anybody's rankings.
(Whipped VaTech twice and they're still ranked behind them in every poll.)
Clemson can't get a break in anybody's rankings.
(Whipped VaTech twice and they're still ranked behind them in every poll.) This post was edited on 12/7/11 at 12:36 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 12:39 am to Zamoro10
quote:
So, Crown College in MN is the worst collegiate football team in America.
Its usually Trinity Bible but lately they've been doing alright.
LINK
quote:They lost to two low ranked teams, NC State and Ga Tech.
Clemson can't get a break in anybody's rankings. (Whipped VaTech twice and they're still ranked behind them in every poll.)
LINK
And went 10-3
while Va Tech went 11-2 and lost only to Clemson.
LINK
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:08 am to Harpua
I wouldn't say the Big 12 had a phenomenal non-conference record really. They didn't beat any top teams in the non-conference.
9 games against BCS opponents (6-3):
Texas beat UCLA
Kansas State beat Miami
Oklahoma State beat Arizona
Oklahoma beat Florida State
Iowa State beat Iowa
Iowa State beat UConn
Arizona State beat Missouri
Arkansas beat Texas A&M
Georgia Tech beat Kansas
Baylor also beat TCU and Texas also beat BYU who has been off since September.
The SEC had more impressive wins in the non-conference. LSU over Oregon and West Virginia, Alabama over Penn State and Georgia Southern, South Carolina over Clemson, Georgia over Georgia Tech, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Auburn over Utah State, etc.
9 games against BCS opponents (6-3):
Texas beat UCLA
Kansas State beat Miami
Oklahoma State beat Arizona
Oklahoma beat Florida State
Iowa State beat Iowa
Iowa State beat UConn
Arizona State beat Missouri
Arkansas beat Texas A&M
Georgia Tech beat Kansas
Baylor also beat TCU and Texas also beat BYU who has been off since September.
The SEC had more impressive wins in the non-conference. LSU over Oregon and West Virginia, Alabama over Penn State and Georgia Southern, South Carolina over Clemson, Georgia over Georgia Tech, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Auburn over Utah State, etc.
This post was edited on 12/7/11 at 1:12 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:13 am to The White Lobster
quote:
The SEC had more impressive wins in the non-conference. LSU over Oregon and West Virginia, Alabama over Penn State and Georgia Southern, South Carolina over Clemson, Georgia over Georgia Tech, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Auburn over Utah State, etc.
LSU and Bama are ranked higher than the entire Big 12.
The math is the math. The computer doesn't really care what the name of a conference is, in fact, in my algorithm, the conference name isn't even read. You look at Sagarins ELO they are very similar, its not as if I'm breaking new ground with the Big 12 happening to be highly ranked - other computers agree.
One thing is for sure - no matter what happens on 1-9, LSU will remain #1 in my computer ranking and in others.
This post was edited on 12/7/11 at 1:14 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:16 am to The White Lobster
quote:
I wouldn't say the Big 12 had a phenomenal non-conference record really. They didn't beat any top teams in the non-conference.
9 games against BCS opponents (6-3):
That's what I'm not understanding about the computer polls that have all the BIG12 so high.
More than "the BIG12 kicked arse" -- I have a feeling that the precise criteria on which they're gaining so many computer points would center on the amount of credit for wins over non-AQ teams with winning records.
Hell, the Alabama win over Penn St that everyone seems to be saying is so flimsy is better than anything on that list.
EDIT: The math does "know" which conference a team belongs to in the sense of insulating inflated numbers once a conference schedule begins.
If one began with a hypothesis that the BIG12's overall numbers are inflated in certain polls due to some scheduling quirk that may not be in line with actual strength, what do you think that quirk would most likely be?
This post was edited on 12/7/11 at 1:26 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:26 am to Harpua
I realize the math is the math, other computers agree, the algorithm doesn't care about the conference, etc. The Big 12 built its computer reputation up by not playing awful FCS teams and for the most part taking care of business. Having a round-robin in the conference also helps, as has been seen in the past when the Big East has been overrated in the computers. It doesn't really matter who wins in other conference games because your opponents' record and opponents' opponents' records don't change. For example, in an Arkansas-South Carolina game, Alabama would be helped by an Arkansas win and Georgia would be weakened by it. In the Big XII this wouldn't matter since you play everyone in the end.
Hopefully this rambling non-sense makes some sort of sense when I re-read it in the morning
Hopefully this rambling non-sense makes some sort of sense when I re-read it in the morning
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:27 am to The White Lobster
quote:
Georgia Southern
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:29 am to lsu31always
Ranked between Kansas (of the Big XII) and Northwestern in this computer poll. 
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:31 am to wm72
The Big 12 was 21-3(.875) and played 8 road games(.8 per team)
The SEC was 30-6(.833) and played 8 road games(.66 per team)
The Big 12 OOC opponents(minus H2H) had a .564 win %
The SEC OOC opponents(minus H2H) had a .504 win %
The SEC was 30-6(.833) and played 8 road games(.66 per team)
The Big 12 OOC opponents(minus H2H) had a .564 win %
The SEC OOC opponents(minus H2H) had a .504 win %
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:33 am to VerlanderBEAST
Ole Miss 
Eta: three of the losses are better losses than the Big 12's losses except Arkansas-A&M (Boise State-Georgia, Florida State-Florida, Clemson-Auburn), and the other three were by Kentucky and Ole Miss
Eta: three of the losses are better losses than the Big 12's losses except Arkansas-A&M (Boise State-Georgia, Florida State-Florida, Clemson-Auburn), and the other three were by Kentucky and Ole Miss
This post was edited on 12/7/11 at 1:37 am
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:35 am to The White Lobster
quote:
Having a round-robin in the conference also helps, as has been seen in the past when the Big East has been overrated in the computers
Round robin would seem to explain some of that. PAC10 had much better numbers when they played one.
It seems that something could be done to better adjust for that but I guess that's another reason why so many actual mathematicians criticize the computer polls as shamanistic at best.
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:42 am to Harpua
quote:
Harpua
I'm impressed because I don't understand this shite. I guess that's why you are a physicist.
Does this mean the Sargain poll is incorrect? If so, how would it change the BCS rankings if OSU was #2 in the Sargain?
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:42 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
The Big 12 OOC opponents(minus H2H) had a .564 win %
The SEC OOC opponents(minus H2H) had a .504 win %
That's kind of what I was alluding to about perhaps excessive credit given for beating non-AQ teams with good winning percentages.
This is often where I think the math be too simplistic and especially after removing MOV. A win over a non-AQ that finishes 8-4 but loses to every top 40 team they play by 20+ points looks better in the computers than over a 5-7 team that was actually pretty competitive against top25 teams.
Posted on 12/7/11 at 1:45 am to IMJ127
It means Sagarin's formula is slightly different.
If OSU was second in Sagarin, Bama would've been in the National Championship game by a reeeeally slim margin. Ok St. would've need seven more points in the coaches poll I believe, and if all the coaches who voted Ok St. third or fourth would have voted them second that would have given them seven points.
If OSU was second in Sagarin, Bama would've been in the National Championship game by a reeeeally slim margin. Ok St. would've need seven more points in the coaches poll I believe, and if all the coaches who voted Ok St. third or fourth would have voted them second that would have given them seven points.
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