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Message
re: Derby Hopefuls for this year?
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:51 pm to Aspercel
Posted on 5/5/11 at 3:51 pm to Aspercel
quote:
like him, but I think he wants to be on or near the lead and his post compromises him a bit. Especially since most of the lead horses got favorable draws
exactly my thoughts. Thats what i meant when i said he was consistent. I think he'll be in the middle the whole time, because of him being in the 17th spot
1
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:10 pm to jojothetireguy
Uh oh for boh
moh had his fist gallop and he looked dull and stiff...
moh had his fist gallop and he looked dull and stiff...
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:14 pm to Aspercel
that can't be good for all the MoH love
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:15 pm to jojothetireguy
Said he looked like he was at the end of a long campain instead of 2nd off a layoff :(
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:25 pm to Aspercel
quote:
Said he looked like he was at the end of a long campain instead of 2nd off a layoff :(
i didn't expect him to be like that, but then again i didn't expect much to begin with. Who knows still a few days left.
In the meantime, lets post some questions we have about the obsticles of the different horses and get some opinions
1. Arch - can he overcome the 1st post position to get into the money, if so where?
2.Twice the Appeal - Can Calvin bring this average speed horse to victory?
3.PoF - Will Rosie be able to battle the boys or will she be bullied in her debut?
4.Dialed In - does he have the closing speed to make a run late as usual in a crowded field?
5.MoH - can he lay off this long and still be a factor?
6.Soldat - Will he be able to be the normal consistent frontrunner and hold a top spot coming from the 17th spot?
7.Uncle Mo - Will he or won't he and if he does, does he have the stamina to go the distance after coming off a disappointing loss?
8. Nehro - Can he close coming from the 18th spot?
This post was edited on 5/5/11 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 5/5/11 at 4:35 pm to jojothetireguy
1) I think he can but it depends on what court decides to do
2) Calvin hasn't really come back firing from his last injury. Might be why he had to take this horse, but they say he's been improving.
3) what I like about Rosie on a horse is her ability to get them to settle. I think pod may sit third or so.
4) I think he has the closing speed but it depends on traffic and how much and how long leparoux stangles him at the back.
5) not an unheard of layoff. He ran in Dubai. I wish they'd gotten him here earlier because a trip like that HAS to tale something out of them.
6) I don't think he'll get the lead. Can he make a run at the leaders is my question.
7) I don't think we see him it the gate, but if we do, I think he may hit the board.
8) post is not an issue with this horse at all for me. His last gallop out after working and the fact that it's 3 races in 6 weeks on a horse that just broke his maiden is my problem.
Help any?
2) Calvin hasn't really come back firing from his last injury. Might be why he had to take this horse, but they say he's been improving.
3) what I like about Rosie on a horse is her ability to get them to settle. I think pod may sit third or so.
4) I think he has the closing speed but it depends on traffic and how much and how long leparoux stangles him at the back.
5) not an unheard of layoff. He ran in Dubai. I wish they'd gotten him here earlier because a trip like that HAS to tale something out of them.
6) I don't think he'll get the lead. Can he make a run at the leaders is my question.
7) I don't think we see him it the gate, but if we do, I think he may hit the board.
8) post is not an issue with this horse at all for me. His last gallop out after working and the fact that it's 3 races in 6 weeks on a horse that just broke his maiden is my problem.
Help any?
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:05 pm to Aspercel
In the meantime, lets post some questions we have about the obsticles of the different horses and get some opinions
1. Arch - can he overcome the 1st post position to get into the money, if so where?
no better than 4th, IMO. i probably will only use him on one $1 superfecta
2.Twice the Appeal - Can Calvin bring this average speed horse to victory?
doubtful. but i'll put a $2 win wager on him no matter what just so I don't feel like an arse afterwards. but in all seriousness.. this horse just isn't a contender.
3.PoF - Will Rosie be able to battle the boys or will she be bullied in her debut?
she beat the boys in the LA Derby
i think she's a solid rider. her horse will be the factor here not her ride. PoF will finish around 10th after getting caught in traffic on the turn for home, IMO.
4.Dialed In - does he have the closing speed to make a run late as usual in a crowded field?
absolutely. but if they set really quick fractions and he lingers too far behind that speed won't get him the win. with Dialed In it's all about the ride.. we know he has the speed and doesn't seem to have too many issues with this distance. if he can get a comfortable ride about 10-15 lengths back, make a slight move on the far turn, then find a lane to make a run at the lead he definitely has a shot.
5.MoH - can he lay off this long and still be a factor?
bigger question for me is how he handles the CD dirt. horses either love it or hate it. it's a very sticky track sometimes. he could turn in a last place finish for all i know. also could surprise and finish in the money. the toughest horse for me to get a bead on in this race.
6.Soldat - Will he be able to be the normal consistent frontrunner and hold a top spot coming from the 17th spot?
17th spot definitely hurts this horse. i could see him getting lost in traffic early and never being able to recover. if he gets a good break and can navigate to 5th or 6th by the first turn, watch out. definitely a horse that could win it all, just needs some racing luck and a great ride.
7.Uncle Mo - Will he or won't he and if he does, does he have the stamina to go the distance after coming off a disappointing loss?
that loss really has nothing to do with this race as far as the horse is concerned. in the Wood he just seemed tired and uninterested and got beat by two pretty good colts. jockey should have separated himself from the field more than he did. tried to ease Mo along and that hurt him.
8. Nehro - Can he close coming from the 18th spot?
i agree with aspy here. we know he has the speed and post 18 shouldn't be that big of an issue with his running style, but he's going to be tired and if the pace is slow and he makes his run too early he may not have enough gas in the tank to get the extra 1/16 of a mile. i could see a couple of other horses passing Nehro in the final 16th.. Midnight Interlude and Dialed In specifically.
1. Arch - can he overcome the 1st post position to get into the money, if so where?
no better than 4th, IMO. i probably will only use him on one $1 superfecta
2.Twice the Appeal - Can Calvin bring this average speed horse to victory?
doubtful. but i'll put a $2 win wager on him no matter what just so I don't feel like an arse afterwards. but in all seriousness.. this horse just isn't a contender.
3.PoF - Will Rosie be able to battle the boys or will she be bullied in her debut?
she beat the boys in the LA Derby
i think she's a solid rider. her horse will be the factor here not her ride. PoF will finish around 10th after getting caught in traffic on the turn for home, IMO. 4.Dialed In - does he have the closing speed to make a run late as usual in a crowded field?
absolutely. but if they set really quick fractions and he lingers too far behind that speed won't get him the win. with Dialed In it's all about the ride.. we know he has the speed and doesn't seem to have too many issues with this distance. if he can get a comfortable ride about 10-15 lengths back, make a slight move on the far turn, then find a lane to make a run at the lead he definitely has a shot.
5.MoH - can he lay off this long and still be a factor?
bigger question for me is how he handles the CD dirt. horses either love it or hate it. it's a very sticky track sometimes. he could turn in a last place finish for all i know. also could surprise and finish in the money. the toughest horse for me to get a bead on in this race.
6.Soldat - Will he be able to be the normal consistent frontrunner and hold a top spot coming from the 17th spot?
17th spot definitely hurts this horse. i could see him getting lost in traffic early and never being able to recover. if he gets a good break and can navigate to 5th or 6th by the first turn, watch out. definitely a horse that could win it all, just needs some racing luck and a great ride.
7.Uncle Mo - Will he or won't he and if he does, does he have the stamina to go the distance after coming off a disappointing loss?
that loss really has nothing to do with this race as far as the horse is concerned. in the Wood he just seemed tired and uninterested and got beat by two pretty good colts. jockey should have separated himself from the field more than he did. tried to ease Mo along and that hurt him.
8. Nehro - Can he close coming from the 18th spot?
i agree with aspy here. we know he has the speed and post 18 shouldn't be that big of an issue with his running style, but he's going to be tired and if the pace is slow and he makes his run too early he may not have enough gas in the tank to get the extra 1/16 of a mile. i could see a couple of other horses passing Nehro in the final 16th.. Midnight Interlude and Dialed In specifically.
This post was edited on 5/5/11 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:17 pm to Rohan2Reed
about master of hounds from drf:
not what i like to read. and i'm ok with your $2 calvin bet because i will be making a $2 twinspired bet for the grey
i <3 me some greys
quote:
Master of Hounds, on the other hand, looked dull and more like a horse just ending a hard campaign rather than at the beginning of one. After jogging 1 1/4 miles on the outside rail he turned around and galloped a very slow 1 1/4 miles on the inside fence, looking listless and stiff the entire time.
quote:
The initial impression of the lone European invader in the field was not a good one as he appeared to be a little listless during his first visit to the track on Thursday despite having been confined to quarantine the previous two mornings. His stride looked very stiff and short during a routine 1?1/4-mile gallop, although not having seen him on a regular basis, it’s hard to judge if this is his regular way of going. All in all, however, not what you would want to see 48 hours out from the race.
not what i like to read. and i'm ok with your $2 calvin bet because i will be making a $2 twinspired bet for the grey
i <3 me some greys
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:26 pm to Aspercel
i've been high on twinspired for the past week! he's going in my big one.. well, big for me ($10 superfecta).
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:31 pm to Rohan2Reed
he's pretty
see.... i have all this knowledge and i throw it out the window for pretty. such a girl. wait til you watch a race with me. i'll handicap the form, then change my mind because something looks good.
it drives the boy CRAZY
btw, i like the brazilian horse and expansion in the turf race. especially expansion if someone goes with little mike and they FLY
see.... i have all this knowledge and i throw it out the window for pretty. such a girl. wait til you watch a race with me. i'll handicap the form, then change my mind because something looks good.
it drives the boy CRAZY
btw, i like the brazilian horse and expansion in the turf race. especially expansion if someone goes with little mike and they FLY
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:35 pm to Aspercel
yeah that's definitely not how i like to conduct my wagering
i still need to check out the undercard races for tomorrow and Saturday. wish I had the goddamn day off tomorrow
how's the party planning coming?
i still need to check out the undercard races for tomorrow and Saturday. wish I had the goddamn day off tomorrow
how's the party planning coming?
This post was edited on 5/5/11 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:36 pm to Rohan2Reed
turf sprint tough, turf tough, distaff tough. should be some great races. i wanna go back to the derby next year!!!
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:38 pm to Rohan2Reed
i've got my shopping list ready, people bringing chairs and tables, food planned out. i just need to clean. I HATE CLEANING
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:40 pm to Aspercel
Nice job Rohan and aspy. Just trying to pass some time and get more opinions from everyone. The more questions we ask the more helpful we are to everyone else dropping money on this one
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:41 pm to jojothetireguy
i don't know if anything i said minus the moh stuff was any use to anyone
i really thing we should have blocked off times and bet on when/if mo withdrew
i really thing we should have blocked off times and bet on when/if mo withdrew
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:42 pm to Aspercel
quote:
turf sprint tough, turf tough, distaff tough. should be some great races. i wanna go back to the derby next year!!!
hey, at least you've been. i'm going to try and make it to the Derby next year then the Preakness the following year. Belmont will continue to be an every-year thing with me.
quote:
i've got my shopping list ready, people bringing chairs and tables, food planned out. i just need to clean. I HATE CLEANING
frick it just hire a maid. use your winnings to pay for her.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:44 pm to Aspercel
Probably our beat chance of winning
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:45 pm to Rohan2Reed
what winnings?
Posted on 5/5/11 at 5:58 pm to Aspercel
Before I catch up, I have emailed the Derby Card.
Posted on 5/5/11 at 6:08 pm to jojothetireguy
1. Arch - can he overcome the 1st post position to get into the money, if so where?
**I don't think so. Lookin at Lucky was a much more quality horse and couldn't.
2.Twice the Appeal - Can Calvin bring this average speed horse to victory?
**Borel will always get the best out of his horses, but that may not be good enough here.
3.PoF - Will Rosie be able to battle the boys or will she be bullied in her debut?
**I love Rosie, but she has never seen anything like the first turn in the Derby. She has a shot though.
4.Dialed In - does he have the closing speed to make a run late as usual in a crowded field?
**Julien likes to sweep the field from the outside, and if he wins he is WAAAAAAYYY better than anyone thought.
5.MoH - can he lay off this long and still be a factor?
**The news today doesn't turn me off. The last part of the quote said they had never seen him and don't know how he normally looks. That being said a flight from Europe and 48 hours in a stall will stiffen anyone up. He has time to get it handled.
6.Soldat - Will he be able to be the normal consistent frontrunner and hold a top spot coming from the 17th spot?
**He very well may steal this race.
7.Uncle Mo - Will he or won't he and if he does, does he have the stamina to go the distance after coming off a disappointing loss?
**I hate this horse, I didn't think he could get 1 1/4 miles in Feb so he hasn't done anything to change my mind.
8. Nehro - Can he close coming from the 18th spot?
**Yes, but will he get there in time? Looking at you Ice Box.
**I don't think so. Lookin at Lucky was a much more quality horse and couldn't.
2.Twice the Appeal - Can Calvin bring this average speed horse to victory?
**Borel will always get the best out of his horses, but that may not be good enough here.
3.PoF - Will Rosie be able to battle the boys or will she be bullied in her debut?
**I love Rosie, but she has never seen anything like the first turn in the Derby. She has a shot though.
4.Dialed In - does he have the closing speed to make a run late as usual in a crowded field?
**Julien likes to sweep the field from the outside, and if he wins he is WAAAAAAYYY better than anyone thought.
5.MoH - can he lay off this long and still be a factor?
**The news today doesn't turn me off. The last part of the quote said they had never seen him and don't know how he normally looks. That being said a flight from Europe and 48 hours in a stall will stiffen anyone up. He has time to get it handled.
6.Soldat - Will he be able to be the normal consistent frontrunner and hold a top spot coming from the 17th spot?
**He very well may steal this race.
7.Uncle Mo - Will he or won't he and if he does, does he have the stamina to go the distance after coming off a disappointing loss?
**I hate this horse, I didn't think he could get 1 1/4 miles in Feb so he hasn't done anything to change my mind.
8. Nehro - Can he close coming from the 18th spot?
**Yes, but will he get there in time? Looking at you Ice Box.
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