re: Daily betting thread 3/20 - sweet 16 bound

Sweating out at a TCU moneyline bet. Would be my biggest win of March madness

oh shite!!! The middle of Arizona -4.5 and TCU +17.5 hit!!!

So close to huge winner there. TCU ran out of steam in OT unfortunately

it's just the typical no rhyme or reason to any of this sports betting


went 11 for 12 yesterday ... couldn't lose.

went 0 for 9 today ... couldn't find a tractor in a haystack


any of these "professional" sports bettors who tell you that they're picking over 60% winners are just flat out lying.

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It’s all about betting the smart lines and finding as many angles as possible. Live betting was so much easier this weekend than trying to pick totals and spreads.

Also important to know when your bet is lost and to pivot to the other side. Live betting has really made it a lot easier, the algorithms aren’t as good at predicting game flow live. But obviously it’s tough to tout live bets and the lines move so quick you really can’t give out picks in time.

ETA good example is for the tcu ml people. Smart thing to do would have been to pivot and take gonzaga -0.5 live going into Ot. I’m shocked they even gave out that number.

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Live betting is great when you have some knowledge of the teams playing. The algorithms are good, but there is always a great play to be found. For example, midway through the second half today while Auburn was down by 10, the alternate line of Miami -11.5 was available for +425. Seeing how Auburn was slowing losing steam, I took it and it hit for a nice profit.

I also took Auburn U72.5 points during halftime. My rationale is that Auburn scored 32 in the first half and was in an absolute dogfight. I was willing to bet they wouldn’t score 40 in the second half and that bet hit.

On the other hand, the second half is typically the higher scoring half, so if you have a solid team like Duke who has 32 at the half and they give you a team total points line of O64.5, it is probably a good bet.

I’m not expert and I certainly lose plenty of bets, but there is some strategy that can help mitigate loses. Although you will always have days where you get your arse handed to you.