Breeders cup thread

I am pumped.

i'll be there too it's an hour and a half drive from my house. Fiancee isn't a big horse person, but people dress up and shite for the breeders cup so I was able to convince her to come with me.

I'll do this race by race

Breeders Cup Classic


If Arroagate beats me, he beats me. Arroagte hates this race track. I watched him lose the san diego handicap on this race track to a shite horse earlier this year. I watched him lose the pacific classic on this race track 2 months ago.


This will be an ongoing theme in my handicapping but Del Mar is the most unique dirt track probably on earth. It's so close to the ocean, literally it's right next door to the ocean, the atomosphere fricks with the composition of hte track makeup and instead of dirt, the dirt clogs together and makes this kinda clasy mush shite instead so it's really more like polytrack than it is in dirt. it's dirt in name only.


horses either love it or hate it. Arroagte hates it.


I'm not saying he can't win. IMHO he's the 2nd best race horse on earth right now. I'm saying he just has to beat me.



In 2010 Curlin was the north american all time money leading money winner. He had won everything there was to win, and they started running him on turf in a prep to run in the arc. He hit the board in the Sword Dancer, but it was clear he wasn't a turf horse. That year, the breeders cup classic was ran on polytrack which plays like turf.


Aiden O'Brien and Darley sent over two world class miler turf horses that year, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. Probably the 2 of the 4 best horses in the world at the time along with zenyatta and curlin. they proceeded to beat the ever living shite out of curlin in the breeders cup.



Fast forward to 2017. Churchill. Just enough dirt pedigree to take to the dirt (Storm Cat damsire), enough turf pedigree to probably really take to the cluncky arse dirt.


on accomplishments alone he's the 2nd best horse in this race hands down. He's at 15-1 because he's a shipper and because it's a turf horse on a dirt track. And normally i'm the first to tell you to stay away from goldophin and coolmore at breeders cup but not this year coolmore finna eat.

My wager will be churchilll straight up

if you are into exotics I would box churchilll and collected. i like collected here, but i hate the 11 post. he's not that frickkng good.


this is a race where i would suggest really fricking around with them supers bec ause i legit don't think Arrogte will hit the board. he really hates this fricking track and these aren't socal 4 YOs these are world class horeses.

Few things about Del Mar

1. Races on the grass at 1 mile or 1 1/16, have a Chute they start at, which leads to a very sharp turn before getting to the main turf track, which means Post Positioning is everything on the Del Mar turf at these distances. You cannot get hooked wide, and everyone is coming down, so horses getting hammered and checked are common. Have to hope for the perfect trip, jockey is key in these races.

2. They only go 5 furlongs on the turf at Del Mar, a full 1/2 furlong shorter than majority of tracks. And the Turf can play speed or dead last closers, must watch Early races to see. I've watched a whole meet won by closers from dead last. Or 2 weeks of front runners on grass at any distance. Look especially at where the rail is set, and if anyone is making up ground outside. Del Mar doesn't play like Santa Anita, but it can get speedy or horses near lead.

3. This past Del Mar meet, horses shipping in from Golden Gate did very well on the dirt track. So watch early races where horses from synthetic surfaces ship in and run. Could be a good key to hit a biggie. Del Mar plays differently than Santa Anita, so keep an eye out for the bias, as usual, there will be one, and it could be a huge payday if you notice and find it early.

quote:

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golden gate is one of two tracks in the country to have tapeta installed for it's main track the other being presque isle downs. Medyan race course over in dubai also uses. this. i.e it's not dirt. it's basically shite polytrack lol

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No one said Golden Gate is dirt

I see reading is fundamental? I clearly stated that watch horses from synthetic surfaces(PI,GG,Arl), GG shippers ran very well at Del Mar when shipping and going to dirt.

Bro u can talk shite to me about a lot of things, but horse racing is not one of them


Golden gate hasn't run on dirt since the year street sense won the Kentucky Derby

quote:

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What's the track made of
2
Answer
Kimberly Hemmer
Local Guide · 6 reviews · 7 photos
a month ago
Sand, fibre, rubber and wax makes up the top 4-7 inches of the racing surface, installed on top of either porous asphaltor a geotextile membrane
1

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quote:

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If Arroagate beats me, he beats me. Arroagte hates this race track. I watched him lose the san diego handicap on this race track to a shite horse earlier this year. I watched him lose the pacific classic on this race track 2 months ago.

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I agree. It's going to be tough for me to bet against Arrogate in this race, but I think I may leave him off my tickets as well. He has looked weak against two below average fields this year at Del Mar.

I'm kinda torn on Gun Runner right now. I know he hasn't done well historically at 1.25 miles, but he has been so dominant this year. Also, I'm a bit biased towards horses that run at Oaklawn.

Breeders Cup Turf


The euros are going to get killed here and rightfully so. Ulysses, besides having the most bad arse name ever, is a damn good turf horse and if they ran this race 10 times he'd win 5 of them at least.


BUT

european racing is ran differently than US racing


I have a rule of thumb when betting euros in the breeders cup turf races, when dealing with tight turns like keeneland and del mar and monmouth, not tight, but not long swooping turns, i go with us based horses. when betting tracks like churchill and belmont with more swooping turns I go with euros. This race is a mile and a half long and will have 3 tight arse turns.


euros aren't used to running at this pace, and they aren't used to these turns. most of their races are either straights or with a bend like at ascot or goodwood.


I like Beach patrol here. i don't like him at 9/2 and won't wager on him if he's under 6 to 1 but at 6 to 1 i really like him here.


Ulysses has been pointed torwards this race for a while if that accounts for anything. there is no better turf jockey on the planet than frankie

If Gun Runner can win the Whitney with a damned horseshoe stuck to his tail, I have to believe he can pull this off too, especially given Arrogate's recent lack of success at this track.

If anyone sees Britney Eurton or Gabby Gaudet there, give them a kiss for me. They are my favorite sports announcers.

DawginAr

PP's sent!