re: Bracketology - UPDATED 3/15

WVU is 5-5 in their last 10, with quality wins over Providence and Georgetown (still considered quality, I suppose). Other wins came against pretty bad teams in USF, Marshall, and St. John's. Looking at their schedule, they NEED to win both games on the homestand, especially against red-hot Nova. The biggest game for WVU, however, will definitely be at Cincy. The winner of that game, I predict, gets into the Dance, while the other one will need a lot of help - from themselves and other teams.

Right now, I have Cincy in. They're currently tied for 6th in the Big East and call me crazy, but I think they'll surpass Syracuse and be that 6, all alone. They've won 6 of 8, beating G'town twice. If Big East does get 8-9 teams in, the Bearcats have to be one of them. G'town and ND are pretty much done.

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My opinion - 10/11; what I think Lunardi will project them as based off committee tendencies, maybe 8/9. Unless they can knock off 'Nova at home on Friday. That will be a real chance for WVU to prove them belong.

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I agree. One big win, such as the game coming up with Nova, could elevate WVU back to a 8-9 seed. I think, based on their play, they could win that one, but goof up and lose @ USF.

Important games for the bracket today:

Michigan State 54, Michigan 42

Michigan did a great job defensively against MSU, but John Beilein still hasn't brought in the shooters to run his offense properly. He will have that team at the top of the Big Ten before long, though. 4-24 from 3-point range and they just don't get to the free throw line that much. A few more trips to the stripe might have done them wonders in possibly swiping a huge win.

Tourney hopes:
Michigan: Out. Needs to win at least 5 of 6 to close Big Ten play and STEAL a win in the Big Ten tourney to sneak in. Maybe more.

Michigan State: Holding steady as a 3 seed for me.

Villanova 102, Marquette 84

Over 100 points in consecutive games for Villanova. Not many teams in America playing as well as these guys right now. Marquette still reeling a bit from the loss to South Florida last Friday, but they will be just fine. A lot of good quality on that team, and Jerel McNeal might well be the Big East player of the year. Obviously both of these teams are locks for the tourney, but I think they swap spots in the bracket.

Tourney hopes:

Villanova: Had them as a 4, now a 3. Six straight wins, including victories over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Providence and Marquette.

Marquette: Was 3, now 4. Essentially a flip-flop game. Marquette's resumé is far too good to drop them lower than a 4 for the time being. Marquette gets St. John's and Seton Hall in the next two, but their last five is the toughest stretch in the nation (@G'Town, vs. UConn, @Louisville, @Pitt, vs. Syracuse). Marquette could work their way up to 2, or drop to even a 5.

I flipped Nova and Marquette and I like it. Both of the brackets just became more interesting by the switch. A OU/Marq Sweet 16 and a NOva/WF Sweet 16 would be sweet!

Loser of UK and UF is gonna have trouble.

Right now, who I think is in the dance.

I'd sit and put together my own bracketology to rival Pisces, but that might be best left for the weekend.

Projected Auto Bids in parentheses:

America East (1): (Boston University)
Atlantic 10 (2): (Xavier), Dayton
ACC (8): (North Carolina), Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami
Atlantic Sun (1): (East Tennessee State)
Big 12 (5): (Oklahoma), Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Kansas State
Big East (8): (UConn), Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Syracuse, Cincinnati, West Virginia
Big Sky (1); (Portland State)
Big South (1): (VMI)
Big Ten (5): (Michigan State), Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota
Big West (1): (Long Beach State)
CAA (1): (Northeastern)
Conference USA (1): (Memphis)
Horizon (1): (Butler)
Ivy (1): (Princeton)
MAAC (1): (Siena)
MAC (1): (Buffalo)
MEAC (1): (Morgan State)
Missouri Valley (1): (Northern Iowa)
Mountain West (3): (Utah), San Diego State, BYU
Northeast (1): (Robert Morris)
Ohio Valley (1): (Morehead State)
Pac-10 (6): (UCLA), Washington, California, Arizona State, USC, Arizona
Patriot (1): (Holy Cross)
SEC (5): (LSU), Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
Southern (1): (Davidson)
Southland (1): (Sam Houston State)
Summit (1): (North Dakota State)
Sun Belt (1): (Western Kentucky)
SWAC (1): (Alabama State)
West Coast (1): (Gonzaga)
WAC (1): (Utah State)

Last Five In:
USC
Kansas State
West Virginia
Arizona
BYU

Last Five Out:
Wisconsin
Penn State
Providence
Georgetown
UNLV

Arizona is def on a bit of a run, following a drought, but they really beat 5 mediocre or less teams. We'll see what they do down the stretch.

A lot of bracketologists are on a MWC kick, putting in 3 or even 4 teams. I cannot do that. BYU has lost 3 of 4. I have Utah winning the Conf tourney and then SDSU going to the NIT. UNLV is fading out. New Mexico is getting hot. They haven't had any terrible losses and they are deep off the bench...

The worst thing for bubble teams is if anyone but Utah wins the conf tourney. Utah is a likely at large pick anyway. Say UNM wins...then you have isssues with UNLV, BYU, and SDSU. Many experts think at least one of those teams is in as an at-large.

The Newest Bubble teams that could totally screw many teams over:

St. Joseph's - would have to win the A10, but they're looking quite capable of doing that. They've won 9 of 10. They get Xavier at home in two weeks. They win that and they're a lot closer. The outlook: 90 percent chance of not getting in w/o conf tourney title/auto bid, but in the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas: "So you're saying there's a chance!?"

Duquesne - At 15-7 and 6-3, they are hardly a team that anyone would even consider. That is, until they beat Xavier last weekend. The Dukes are the "other team from Pittsburg" who could pull off the A10 title...having already proved that they can beat the best team in the conference. The Dukes win their remaining 7 and they're 22-7. They also have beaten Robert Morris and have played some pretty tough OOC Foes in Duke, Pitt, WVU, and Old Dominion. The chips are stacked vs. them even greater than St. Joe, but they'd really screw things up for a lot of bubble teams by winning the A10 tourney.

Seton Hall - NO ONE is talking about them. They've won 5 in a row and are one of many who have recently deflated the flabby balloon known as Georgetown. Velentines Day is the night of knowing if they're bubble material or not, as they host #1 U Conn. A win over the Huskies would make them 15-9 and 6-6. They boast wins over USC and VT - two near locks for the tourney. Aside from St. John's and USF, the remaining schedule for the Pirates is treacherous - 5 games vs. Big East teams that will go dancing...three of which are on the road. Who knows? A win Saturday night over the nation's best would give them TONS of confidence and they're gonna need it as three days later they go to Marquette.

Tulsa - If anyone is going to break Memphis's 3 year CUSA win streak and do it at the Pyramids, it might as well be the Golden Hurricane, winners of 13/16 and the second place team in an otherwise one alpha male university conference. Tulas would be sitting very pretty right now if about two shots had fallen differently - a one point loss to Memphis at home and a 1 pt overtime loss to a team they didn't need to lose to - Tulane. 19-5 and tied for first wouldn't be so bad, but 17-7 and sitting in 2nd ain't so bad either. Experts think Tulsa could get close if they can pull the upset tomorrow night. Even if they don't, the Hurricane could easily have 25 wins by Selection Sunday and they've got nice OOC wins over Texas A&M and Oral Roberts. Unfortunately for them, however, everyone in the country is quite aware that CUSA is not the ACC, even though they have two letters in common in their acronyms.

UAB - The third place team in CUSA is Mike Davis's 16-8/5-3 Blazers, who won at Arizona, while also playing very respactable games at Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and Boston College. The Blazers also tried Louisville in Freedom Hall before giving out in the second half. Tough to find a team that played a touger OOC schedule than these guys. The Blazers have won 6 of 8 and should get their 20th win the game before hosting Memphis - a Thursday night ESPN Primetime event. Another chance at breaking Memphis's ridiculous CUSA win streak? You bet. Recognition for Selection Sunday? Absolutely. It doesn't hurt that UAB was at one time a regular in the big dance and their head coach took Indiana to the final game eight years ago. They lost to Tulsa by one measley point and at Memphis and Houston. In other words, they're not losing to the conference dogs. As is the case with Tulsa, not beating Memphis isn't going to make things easy unless they win the conf tourney.

Green Bay - No, not the Favre-less packers. The Phoenix...and they're rising. Winners of 9/10, with the only loss to Butler which they avenged two weeks later, Green Bay is arguably the second best team in the state of Wisconsin behind Marquette, despute losing to Wisconsin by 20 back in December. Can this 19-6/7-2 ballclub sneak in with an at-large if they don't win the Horzion tourney? After Butler, their next best win was vs. UMASS. That means "no". The issue thogh is that they CAN and should they, two teams will be in from the Horizon as Butler has already punched their ticket. Rather than call themselves a bubble team, the Phoenix can be coined a "Screw You Over Team". Watch out, 8th place teams from major conferences.

Creighton - It seems like we can put Creighton under this category every single year, doesn't it? The Blue Jays of Omaha have made waves in the NCAA the past two decades - here and there. Winners of 5 in a row, the Blue Jays are in 2nd place and are now one back of Northern Iowa and one ahead of Illinois State - two teams who have gotten more respect from the media this season. Does Creighton need an auto bid to get their ticket to the dance punched? OOC wins over New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, and the recent big win over Northern Iowa make a semi-strong case. Aside from Wichita State, their other losses were against formidable teams. They also have a chance to have about 25-28 wins before the MVC Tourney final. They're gonna be a tough team to keep out. The bubble needs to make room for them.

New Mexico - Los Lobos kick your balls into OUTER SPACE! Talk about a team of hungry wolves that no one is talking anything about, yet they're one game back of the lead for what appears to be a very respectable MWC. Credentials? A recent thrilling OT win over UNLV, a heartbreaking one point loss to the expert-favorite Utes, a 19 point blowout win over bubble resident BYU, and a 33 point win over SEC mid-grade Ole Miss. Not so impressive, but this is a team that has won 6 of 8 and put their name almost on the bubble map by beating two teams who are getting way more respect than they are. The Lobos have been very tough at home in the always visitor-unfriendly Wolf Den. A big game coming up at BYU, where the Cougars will seek revenge, could be the game that makes or breaks their bubble status. It doesn't look so good without wining the MWC tourney, but the Lobos are capable of doing that. They go on a big win streak and finish the regular season 22-9 and 13-3, while winning the conference regular season title? It won't matter what happens in Las Vegas at the MWC Tourney.

Arizona - The week of January 15-22 was a depressing one for the Wildcats with three losses - all to good Pac 10 foes - and a 2-5 record in the Pac 10. Out of nowhere, the once big fish in a big pond Wildcats have climbed back into bubble territory. For years, bubble to them meant not getting past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tourney. A recent 5 game win streak that started with a memorable OT triumph over OOC foe Houston and found a win over a solid Washington Huskies team has put U of A back in tourney talk and getting rave reviews from bracketologists everywhere. The test comes over the next 100 or so hours as rivals USC and UCLA come to town to visit the hopeful Cats. Wins over these tourney bound programs - especially the Bruins - would definitely put Arizona into the brackets of just about everyone. Follow that with a win on the road against hated rival ASU and the 1997 NCAA Champions can prove how easy it can be to go from sub-bubble to virtual lock. Lose these three games, however, and your season is likely all but done...unless the NIT is something you actually look forward to.

What a night for the brackets to be dealt with!!!!

How big is the game this weekend for Nebraska @ Mizzou in your opinion?

I think NU needs it. A season sweep against argueably the 2nd best team in the Big 12 right now would have to look impressive to the committe(or so you would think).

Last weeks victory over Texas was Sadler's biggest victory to date since taking over at NU. But I think this game would be even bigger.

Nebraska needs a win. PiscesTiger has them sneaking in, but I'm not so sure. They have wins over Creighton and Texas, but also losses to Iowa State and UMBC, teams near the bottom of their conferences. A win over Mizzou gets them in the mix, and some further results could definitive have them dancing.

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Very true. The loss at Oregon State doesn't look so pretty either.

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it's a lot better now than it looked at the begining of the season