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Betting Win Totals
Posted on 8/13/18 at 11:40 am
Posted on 8/13/18 at 11:40 am
Checked out the new sportsbooks at IP and Beau Rivage this weekend to place a few win total wagers. They had a few different numbers, so figured I'd come to get y'all's thoughts on strategies. When one book offers over 8 at -150 whereas another book offers 8.5 at +100, should the 8(-150) or 8.5(+100) be the play?
5
Posted on 8/13/18 at 11:46 am to FultonReed
It depends on how confident you are. More times than not, that hook is a pretty big factor
Posted on 8/13/18 at 12:33 pm to FultonReed
8 is enough.
Be happy with win
Be happy with win
Posted on 8/13/18 at 2:06 pm to FultonReed
quote:
When one book offers over 8 at -150 whereas another book offers 8.5 at +100, should the 8(-150) or 8.5(+100) be the play?
They are two very different bets. It depends on if you think the particular team will win more than 8 games. If you think they will, bet the 8.5 at +100. The 8 allows you some wiggle room but it's going to cost you in total payout.
I don't like total win bets because they tie your money up for months.
Posted on 8/13/18 at 2:31 pm to FultonReed
quote:
Checked out the new sportsbooks at IP and Beau Rivage
How was it?
Similar to a sportsbook in Vegas where you have places to sit with tons of tv's? Or just a counter to place bets?
quote:
When one book offers over 8 at -150 whereas another book offers 8.5 at +100, should the 8(-150) or 8.5(+100) be the play?
Depends on the situation. Go through that team's schedule and decide if you think they win 8 games versus 9.
If they win 8 and you took the discounted bet on OVER 8.5, you're screwed.
This post was edited on 8/13/18 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 8/13/18 at 3:23 pm to FultonReed
Some handicappers like to say that, in NFL, every 50 cents of juice is worth about a half win. So, in your example, those two lines are similar from a value perspective. College is different because there are way more sure wins/losses on the schedule. So only a handful of games will decide the bet, for the most part.
As others have mentioned, it's all about your confidence level. Wisconsin is a good example. Realistically, there's only 2 games you should be worried about when betting the Over. So if you feel like there's a 50% chance they win 11 or 12, and a 90% chance they win 10 or more, the difference between a 10 and a 10.5 can be enormous.
Until their entire offensive line gets hurt and they end up winning 7 games.
As others have mentioned, it's all about your confidence level. Wisconsin is a good example. Realistically, there's only 2 games you should be worried about when betting the Over. So if you feel like there's a 50% chance they win 11 or 12, and a 90% chance they win 10 or more, the difference between a 10 and a 10.5 can be enormous.
Until their entire offensive line gets hurt and they end up winning 7 games.
Posted on 8/13/18 at 7:43 pm to bayoucracka
Thanks for the responses so far. I usually err on the side of caution and take the 8, but sometimes I just hate that extra juice.
I’ve never been to Vegas, so I can’t compare them. The IP was just 4 betting windows. They said they are currently building an actual sport book. The Beau had 7 windows, and the sportsbook was like a restaurant, but had about 16 leather recliners in the middle. Nothing spectacular, but will still make a trip or two out there this fall once others get up and running.
I’ve never been to Vegas, so I can’t compare them. The IP was just 4 betting windows. They said they are currently building an actual sport book. The Beau had 7 windows, and the sportsbook was like a restaurant, but had about 16 leather recliners in the middle. Nothing spectacular, but will still make a trip or two out there this fall once others get up and running.
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