2011 Breeder's Cup In-Game Thread

Nice early handicapping breakdown from the NY Times blog.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: SOMALI LEMONADE, the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, drew post No. 14, which is potentially disastrous. She has no early speed, meaning that rider Alex Solis will have to let the rest of the field run away from her, angle over to the rail to save some ground and hope that she can pass 13 other quality fillies in the final quarter-mile.

Filly and Mare Sprint: The California invaders appear to have the best of this, with TURBULENT DESCENT (6-5) and SWITCH (3-1) having been installed as the two morning-line choices. Another California-based filly, the long shot GREAT HOT (20-1), might have a look at this; she has handled conventional dirt very well in two previous tries and comes off a gutty win in the Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland at this same seven-furlong distance.

Filly and Mare Turf: Last year’s upset winner, SHARED ACCOUNT is back to defend but has been off-form in two starts in 2011. The 2009 winner MIDDAY, who was send to Shared Account in 2010, is back for another try but also appears to have lost a step. Conversely, the French mare STACELITA is about as sharp as she could be, and comes in off back-to-back Grade I victories in the United States. Handicappers will have several Euro-invaders to consider here, including the undefeated 3-year-old filly NAHRAIN.

Juvenile Turf: One of the toughest races on either day, as evidenced by the fact that the lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite, MAJESTIC CITY, will be racing on grass for the first time. Six of the starters in this race are coming off wins in group or graded stakes company. A combination of early-pace types and confirmed from-the-clouds closers makes this an intriguing contest … and an irresistible betting opportunity.

Sprint: Last year’s upset winner, BIG DRAMA, goes for a second straight Sprint score, but he has been sparingly raced this year and might not be the same horse who took a top field wire-to-wire in 2010. JACKSON BEND hasn’t been in a race as short as six furlongs since August 2009, but his sprint form of late has been exceptional. Also deserving of consideration is the California-bred AMAZOMBIE, who has won his last three starts on conventional dirt, including the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita, the West Coast’s key Breeders’ Cup Sprint prep.

Turf Sprint: Another defending champion here in CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE, who scored at 6-1 in 2010. He’s only 1 for 5 this year, but he’s returning to Churchill Downs, where he has always been at his best. HAVELOCK wanted no part of 1 1/16 miles in the Kentucky Cup Stakes in September, but he has won his last four turf sprints, including the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland last time out.

Dirt Mile: With speed horses (THE FACTOR, SHACKLEFORD and TAPIZAR) drawing posts 1-2-3, the closers will have every opportunity to win from off the pace this year. CALEB’S POSSE has shown talent going short and long, but he is definitely a better horse around one turn (5 for 7 lifetime), and the one-turn mile at Churchill Downs ought to be right in his wheelhouse.

Juvenile: Sure, UNION RAGS was impressive in winning the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last time out. But, that’s a one-turn race; the juvenile races at Churchill are run at a mile and a sixteenth and around two turns. Only two horses in this field have won stakes races around two turns on conventional dirt: CREATIVE CAUSE and FORT LOUDON. The former is 7-2 on the morning line; the latter is 20-1.

Mile: GOLDIKOVA draws the rail in a 13-horse field for her attempt to win the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile for an unprecedented fourth year in a row. Some observers have suggested that the 6-year-old mare might have lost a step, and that could spell trouble, as she’ll be mired down along the inside. Ultra-sharp TURALLURE got the opposite end of that stick, drawing the highly disadvantageous post No. 13. He has never lost with Julien Leparoux riding, but … that post is a killer. Right smack in between those two is GIO PONTI, second to GOLDIKOVA last year and second to ZENYATTA in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2009. His connections would dearly love to get a B.C. win on his résumé, and, given the quality of his win on Oct. 8 in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, this might very well be his year.

Classic: UNCLE MO has legions of fans, many of whom are about as far out on a limb with their horse as they can be. All year long, they’ve been waiting for Mo to replicate the brilliance of his championship 2-year-old campaign. His last two starts (a close second in the King’s Bishop Stakes, followed by a blowout win in the Kelso Handicap), looked at in the most favorable light, give Mo backers cause for hope. But, we still don’t know whether he can get a mile and a quarter in top company. Of course, the same could be said of the filly, HAVRE DE GRACE, who is 0 for 2 at the Classic distance. If either of the top two win this year’s Classic, expect to see its connections accepting the Horse of the Year trophy at the Eclipse Awards.

Goldikova, going for her 4th straight, draws rail for Breeder's Cup Mile

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An audible groan went up from the table of traveling lads from France at the Breeders' Cup World Championships post position draw when it was announced three-time Mile winner Goldikova had drawn the rail for the 2011 edition Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs.

For the past two renewals of the Mile, Goldikova had drawn far outside and still prevailed, but the rail is usually seen as a risky proposition, requiring rider Olivier Peslier to navigate through traffic at some point in the two-turn race.

Travelling lad Thierry Blaise, who has worked for trainer Freddy Head for four years, said after the draw that the connections were actually happy with the inside draw and much preferred it to starting from outside.

"We hope to give her her head early on and let her get a good start," Blaise said. "She has travelled here very well, as usual. She is our Queen."

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Brisnet PPs

Saturday



Race 1- whatever you do, do NOT wager on shared heart. she's still being hyped off her off the screen flordia maiden win. she hasn't run close to running back to that. not worth 8/5


Breeders' Cup Marathon - i'm going to go with Eldarfeer for a couple of reasons. First, he likes the track and the distance. Secondly, he hasn't really done antyhing WRONG per say this year, last but not least, there are very few trainers who can get a horse amped for one race like Diane Alvarado can. she doesn't have the horse flesh that some do, but when she has a horse and she wants him to fire for one race, they do. he will bring it.



Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - i'm not even going to pretend like i have a clue


Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint - I like Amazombie here. horse should not be anywhere near 5 to 1. Big Drama I like as well, but Amazombie is running his eyeballs out this year.

Euro ears could run a really really good one, but his best races IMHO come off a very long lay off which he has not had since earlier this year. Just don't think Jackson Bend is good enough.


I usually throw a few BOMBS on my tickets throughout the day and I would add Apriority to that list. this horse is way better than 30 to 1. hell pound for pound there might not be a horse that has more talent. he's just been "off" for some reason. but he was freakishly good earlier this year. If he somehow gets it together he could win this race.



Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - one of my fav angles to play is the "who supplemented their horse" angle. owners/trainers usually od not like to waste hundreds of thousands of dollars supplementing horses for races. Hoof it was supplemented for this race.

Also he is a New Zealand bred and IMHO they just do turf sprinters better in NZ/Australia than anywhere else in the world.


I like hoofit and one of my few exotic playes (98% of my wagers are straight win wagers, I don't like getting fancy) is going to be a hooit-Regally Ready exacta straight


Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - shackleford at 7/2 is a almomst laughable.


this IMHO is the hardest race to handicap on the entire card.

The factor IMHO has the most talent in the race. He has also proven he can take his race track with him so to speak. But this race is going to have a LOT of speed and even though he's faster than these IMHO, I think he gets cooked. Plus his last race was just a clunker.

Caleb's posse - I really like this horse too. But I think he was put in the wrong race. Think he should have been in the sprint. For once it's an easier spot IMHO, and secondly, it's more in his wheel house. think he is one you defiantly have to include in your exotics but I just don't see him getting up for the win


So I' down to 2 horses. Trappe shot, who I just love the heck out of as a racing fan, and Wilburn.

I am going to go with Wilburn for 3 reasons.


First, I think.. right now... at this moment. he's the best 3YO in the country going 2 turns. think they should have ran him in the classic honestly. horse is going to be frighteningly good next year and is going to tear up the handicap division.

Secondly.. I think a mile is further than trap... not even further than he wants to go.. he can run 9F if he has to.. but his BEST races come in sprints.

Last but not least, he (trappe shot) while he ozzes talent and ability.. has a habit of burning money like MC hammer. He just annihilates sub par competition but you put him in a race with real pace and real company and he "almost" gets there. he the blue balls of race horses.

So I'm going with wilburn. he will have NO problem with a mile an d will be running strong at the end to get up IMHO



Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf - don't really know. if i had to i would go with mid day.

I tend to not wager on coolmore horses in breeders cup races (4 out of the last 63) .


Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile - this is a 2 and a half horse race, between Creative Cause, union rags and drill is the half horse.

I am a huge creative cause fan. Also keep in mind, both of union rags graded stakes wins, come on off tracks. Also I don't think the competition was all that great (the horse that finished 2nd in both races he won were over 20 to 1). Whereas Drill (creative causes rival) is pretty damn good in his own right, and he just toyed with him last race.

Creative Cause / Drill exacta., creative cause win


TVG Breeders' Cup Mile - the fan in me wants goldikiova to win this race. and if she is in it in the stretch i'm going to cheer my arse off like i have a million dollar son her.

From a gambling standpoint however, it depends on the track. IF there is no rain, which it should not be, I am going with Gio ponti. Goldy, is not the same mare she was last year IMHO. she's not that far off from last year but she's not where she was last year, and gio ponti is a world class turf miler, they just keep running him longer than a mile, then at this time of the year they seem to remember "hey he's pretty good at a mile let's run him in that mile race at keenland" and he wins going away, as he did this year.

he will be running in the end.

If by chance it's an off track I am all over get stormy.



breeders cup classic

I was pretty damn sold on HDG in this race, until I saw the 10 to 1 morning line on game on dude. Are you freaking serious? Game on dude is one of two horses in the entire field to win a grade 1 race at 10F on dirt this year (him and stay thirstyu)

Even better; on fast dirt tracks this year, game on dude is a perfect 3 for 3. 1 allowance win and 2 grade 1 wins.

he lost the hollywood gold cup (cushion track) came in a 2nd by a nose

he lost the pac classic which is polytrack (basically turf)

he lost the Charles town classic (a bull ring on a very very sloppy track)


you toss those races out and he's 3 to 1 in this race.


I am not a fan of chantel either honestly, but she has rode him all year basically.

10 to 1, I'm all in. He's one of the very few in this race that will get the distance.

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i'm throwing out Stay Thirsty in the big one. he's just very unproven outside of NY. need to go back and rewatch the Jockey's Gold Cup. did he just get a bad trip or was he soundly beat? i remember him being way outside coming down the lane.

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i would toss.. well shite you can't toss that race beucase he ran well in the slop in the belmont.

I think this 3YO crop, at least going 2 turns, is pretty shitty. I don't' think he ran a bad race to his standards it's just that, that race would have won a 3YO race this year. the crop just isn't' that good.

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haven't really seen much of these two. going to do some more research. thanks for the breakdown.

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trappe shot, is really really really good. he just, never seems to win the big race. but numbers wise he's one of the best horses in any division in the country. he ran 2nd in the haskell last year, won the true north on belmont day this year going away by about like 7


wilburn is more of a 2 turn horse, that is cutting back. wilburn, if i am not mistaken has only lost one race this year. don't quote me on that. his 2nd race, he kinda laid an egg around mach in santa anita and everyone got off the wagon, but he hasn't lost since and he's slowly become better and better. last race, he won the indiana derby in about 5 strides, beating (soundly) caleb's posse and shakleford. i want to see him go 10F, but he will easily get 8F

wow the Turf looks to have some nice value bets in it. also looks like a complete toss-up.

Brilliant Speed at 20-1? and he's not running on dirt? yes please.

wouldn't bet against the euros in the turf. their "handicap" division is light years ahead of our turf division

i just don't know which euro to wager on lol.

I've always thought, maybe i'm right, maybe i'm wrong, that flat out is a really really good miler, that is beating up on shitty horses going further than a mile, but himself really doesn't want to go further than 8F.

we will find out saturday.


very fricked up what they did to the euro horses.

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R2r, you going to claiming crown? We have a filly probably running in one.

I havent studied as much as I should this year (too busy) but boy is bringing back the racing forms for me tonight from the track. I will miss EVERYTHING Saturday

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Dec. 3rd? yeah I'll probably be there?

same here, just way too busy with work to get as into it as I want to. going to hit it hard Saturday morning though. Ice Box looks really great. Beyer in his last race was his highest of the year. seems to have a lot of stored up energy. I think he runs a big race.

i hadn't read that.

i guess they are trying to preserve the turf for the next two days. makes sense to me, as much as it upsets them. less dangerous if it's not all torn to bits...

i just hope for no breakdowns on national tv

it's sad that i have that same stress for EVERY race that networks carry.

true...

but i'd much rather have the turf ready and prevent a catastrophe. that's just me.

who want to work 2 days before the race anyway? they gonna blow out 2 furlongs?!

that would be enough to scare me off something on race day.

if they just wanted to gallop, they are fine on dirt. they should just be glad they got rain and don't have to scratch off the firm turf like they have in the past.

i just read the article. WTF?!? 6 furlong work 2 DAYS before the race? that horse would run flat, flat, flat.

i also want to point out

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the European horsemen – who train all the time in wet conditions, but not on racecourses – strongly felt they should be allowed onto the course.

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that they aren't allowed to train on wet RACECOURSES at home either. if it was a traing track, they'd be allowed, and after years they should know how churchill runs things. watch the weather and plan accordingly.

i also find it VERY unprofessional of them to move the rail and head out onto the track anyway