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The Green Transition, Copper, and investing....
Posted on 10/29/23 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 10/29/23 at 3:20 pm
Here are a couple of articles I ran across, and some choice excerpts from each:
The Global Copper Market is Entering an Age of Extremely Large Deficits LINK
"Simply put, the road to reaching net zero begins and ends with copper. All infrastructure built to support renewable energy uses large amounts of copper, as the metal is a highly efficient conductor of electricity and heat."
"According to McKinsey, global electrification is expected to increase annual copper demand to 36.6 million tonnes by 2031, compared to the current demand of roughly 25 million tonnes. However, the consultancy firm forecasts copper supply to be around 30.1 million tonnes, leaving a gap of 6.5 million tonnes by the start of next decade.
Green uses of copper accounted for 4% of copper consumption in 2020, but this is expected to rise to 17% by 2030, Aditi Rai, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note. He added a “net-zero emissions” path would mean the world would need an additional 54% of copper by 2030 on top of that forecast.
S&P Global Market Intelligence goes a bit further out, projecting that annual global copper demand will nearly double to 50 million tonnes by 2035. Last year, global copper mine production sat at approximately 22 million tonnes, short of even the current demand."
Copper mine flashes warning of ‘huge crisis’ for world supply LINK
""There’s a huge crisis,” says Doug Kirwin, one of the earliest geologists to work at the deposit that became Oyu Tolgoi, or Turquoise Hill, named after the area’s rocks, stained by oxidized copper.
"There’s no way we can supply the amount of copper in the next 10 years to drive the energy transition and carbon zero. It’s not going to happen,” adds Kirwin, now an independent consulting geologist. "There’s just not enough copper deposits being found or developed.”
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate a greener world will be short about 6 million tons of copper by next decade, meaning 12 new Oyu Tolgois need to come online within that period."
So, erudite TD mega-investors, how do we profit from this? BHP, RIO and FCX all have divis and good options action for covered call selling. What else ya got?
The Global Copper Market is Entering an Age of Extremely Large Deficits LINK
"Simply put, the road to reaching net zero begins and ends with copper. All infrastructure built to support renewable energy uses large amounts of copper, as the metal is a highly efficient conductor of electricity and heat."
"According to McKinsey, global electrification is expected to increase annual copper demand to 36.6 million tonnes by 2031, compared to the current demand of roughly 25 million tonnes. However, the consultancy firm forecasts copper supply to be around 30.1 million tonnes, leaving a gap of 6.5 million tonnes by the start of next decade.
Green uses of copper accounted for 4% of copper consumption in 2020, but this is expected to rise to 17% by 2030, Aditi Rai, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note. He added a “net-zero emissions” path would mean the world would need an additional 54% of copper by 2030 on top of that forecast.
S&P Global Market Intelligence goes a bit further out, projecting that annual global copper demand will nearly double to 50 million tonnes by 2035. Last year, global copper mine production sat at approximately 22 million tonnes, short of even the current demand."
Copper mine flashes warning of ‘huge crisis’ for world supply LINK
""There’s a huge crisis,” says Doug Kirwin, one of the earliest geologists to work at the deposit that became Oyu Tolgoi, or Turquoise Hill, named after the area’s rocks, stained by oxidized copper.
"There’s no way we can supply the amount of copper in the next 10 years to drive the energy transition and carbon zero. It’s not going to happen,” adds Kirwin, now an independent consulting geologist. "There’s just not enough copper deposits being found or developed.”
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate a greener world will be short about 6 million tons of copper by next decade, meaning 12 new Oyu Tolgois need to come online within that period."
So, erudite TD mega-investors, how do we profit from this? BHP, RIO and FCX all have divis and good options action for covered call selling. What else ya got?
2
Posted on 10/29/23 at 5:41 pm to TigerHornII
Basically, electric can’t be the answer due to price
Posted on 10/29/23 at 5:45 pm to TigerHornII
There is almost an infinity supply of copper in the world (1 TRILLION ton estimate).
Posted on 10/29/23 at 8:30 pm to I Love Bama
But Russia is a large source and China is a large processor. We are having a net loss of production of copper without electrification. To double or triple the extraction, processing, and manufacturing of copper will take 30-40 years at least in the current global climate.
Now do Cobalt, Lithium etc.
Now do Cobalt, Lithium etc.
Posted on 10/29/23 at 9:19 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
There is almost an infinity supply of copper in the world (1 TRILLION ton estimate).
880 Million tons to be exact - estimated. The problem is that it takes 10-20 years to make a copper mine productive, even an open pit mine. Meanwhile, we need to double - at minimum - production within the next 10-15 years, with only a handful of new mines coming online during that time.
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