re: POLITICO: Next week’s Category 5 economic storm.

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They won’t change the definition as much as it won’t be an “official” recession until the NBER says it is. They didn’t call the 2008 (started in January 2008) recession until 12/1/2008, and they didn’t say it was over (June 2009) until 9/20/2010.

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PMI at 47 last week pretty much announced to those still in disbelief that we are in a recession. NBER also said we were out of the Great Recession four months before unemployment peaked.

Inflation of the ‘70s came at a time of very low debt. Recession of late 2000s came at a time of high debt, but almost no inflation. We are about to see what happens during a recession and with inflation. Maybe Biden can navigate us through this storm, but he has not engines a great deal of confidence so far.

Apple is going to be the biggest even for the market this week. Once it bottoms out and begins to recover the market will follow. Perhaps that has already happened, but I don’t think so.