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Message
re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 11/21/25 at 6:43 am to BottomlandBrew
Posted on 11/21/25 at 6:43 am to BottomlandBrew
Volatility feels explosive rn. In the last 30 minutes we’ve gone from $82.2k to $80.5k to $82.8k. We’ve gotta be getting close.
1
Posted on 11/22/25 at 9:14 pm to beaverfever
quote:I've got quite a few open BITX trades in the red as I have been buying into this falling knife incrementally at 2X speed all the way down from$104K. Once Bitcoin recovers to approximately $105K, I will be closed out of all of these trades at a nice profit. In the meantime, I have significant cumulative unrealized losses. Blood is in the water and I am still trading like a robot.
Volatility feels explosive
If Bitcoin opens around $86K Monday morning, I will be able to sell two of my open BITX positions at profit, as I sell them in reverse order. If I I am able to do that and Bitcoin drops again $1000 or more, I buy more BITX incrementally. If Bitcoin continues to climb, I can close out more BITX trades by selling back to cash. Volatility is my friend. I just react to Bitcoin's price. Easy peasy.
One of these days I might get burned on some of my trades if Bitcoin loses close to 50% or takes way too long to recover. In the meantime, I will continue to incrementally trade Bitcoin volatility even with quite a few trades stuck open with significant unrealized losses. My trading style is not for the feint of heart.
This post was edited on 11/22/25 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 11/23/25 at 7:47 am to 98eagle
Hope we’ve hit a bottom. I’ve got limit buys set up for tomorrow morning around Friday’s closing prices. I’m 100% willing to buy at these prices but I’m going to respect the CME gaps for once.
We’ll all get burned if bitcoin trades down to $50k for an extended period but I think your approach is solid. I think about this more in terms of dormancy than cycles now. “Dormant” Bitcoin is dead IMO. It’s too much of a magnet for action. It’s part of the zeitgeist now.
We’ll all get burned if bitcoin trades down to $50k for an extended period but I think your approach is solid. I think about this more in terms of dormancy than cycles now. “Dormant” Bitcoin is dead IMO. It’s too much of a magnet for action. It’s part of the zeitgeist now.
This post was edited on 11/23/25 at 8:02 am
Posted on 11/23/25 at 10:07 am to beaverfever
quote:This will be the one time patience burns me
I’m 100% willing to buy at these prices but I’m going to respect the CME gaps for once.
. If so, I'll take it! At this point, a fake sunday pump is well received. Posted on 11/23/25 at 2:22 pm to beaverfever
The CME gap is getting a little larger. Hopefully at market open tomorrow the gap remains and I sell two of my BITX positions for a decent profit at market open. Then if there is a pullback to close the gap from last Friday's close, I will reload and purchase BITX again. Or if Bitcoin wants to continue rising with no gap correction, I'm fine with that too. If instead, Bitcoin plummets below Friday's close before market open, I may be buying even more BITX while having multiple stacks of it that would have even more significant losses than they currently have. Whatever Bitcoin wants to do, I just react to it's actual price.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 4:05 pm to 98eagle
The volatility is going to be insane for the next few months IMO. $88k to $80k to $88k in a a few days, two of which occurred over the weekend. We could still get new scary lows etc but people that think we've just closed up shop for the next 2 years are out of their mind.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 4:05 pm to 98eagle
nm
This post was edited on 11/23/25 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 11/23/25 at 4:19 pm to beaverfever
quote:It would be nice if Bitcoin would shoot up to a new all time high and then have high amplitude swings (like $8K) instead of large swings after a big pullback. Back at some point in spring/summer of 2024, I recall repeated Bitcoin price swings that averaged about $5K or so. I made quite a bit off of those. Then volatility dropped causing the amplitude and frequency of price swings to decrease and I missed more opportunities until I realized I could open new trades on $2K or $1K dips. I've even traded on same day $500 dips/recoveries but that requires me to pay attention too long when I want to be out doing things like fishing or hanging out with my wife and our friends.
The volatility is going to be insane for the next few months IMO.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:25 am to beaverfever
Looks like we’re trying to flip 85k back to support. The 81-83k resistance stopped the falling knife for now.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 4:45 pm to Hateradedrink
Boy would love to see us close the month above 90k somehow.
Posted on 11/26/25 at 11:00 am to Hateradedrink
Jealous of people just now getting curious about btc that are scooping up shares of IBIT in the $40s. Great spot to build a position.
This post was edited on 11/26/25 at 11:01 am
Posted on 11/26/25 at 11:57 am to Hateradedrink
90k for thanksgiving and 100k for Christmas would really put me in a thankful mood.
Posted on 11/26/25 at 12:35 pm to beaverfever
If we punch through 92k then the next stop is 106-108ish.
That is the line in the sand- it’s the moving average support for the bull run. Cannot get rejected from that.
That is the line in the sand- it’s the moving average support for the bull run. Cannot get rejected from that.
Posted on 11/26/25 at 12:50 pm to Hateradedrink
That’s the 50 week right? It matches my rough sentiment gauge. Breaking $100k would be nice but flipping back to bull season feels like we need the price closer to $110k than $100k. $107k held for a long while. IWM looks very positive and thats a nice change of pace. We could use a little bullishness from MSTR.
This post was edited on 11/26/25 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 11/26/25 at 4:27 pm to beaverfever
Yeah.
100k is cool but the big baddie is that 107-110kish range. Bears will throw the kitchen sink at it to force a rejection.
There is a possibility that they’ll let it slide and let the QE shake out through 2026, though. Theres probably more catalysts coming Q1-2 2026 than restraints.
100k is cool but the big baddie is that 107-110kish range. Bears will throw the kitchen sink at it to force a rejection.
There is a possibility that they’ll let it slide and let the QE shake out through 2026, though. Theres probably more catalysts coming Q1-2 2026 than restraints.
Posted on 11/27/25 at 9:04 am to beaverfever
Looking to trade. I am new to crypto. Something I would hold for several months, possibly longer depending on performance. Thinking of going the etf route. Ibit doesn't track btc as close as I would expect. Ibit is up 104% for 5 years, but btc is up 399%. Why the large discrepancy?
Posted on 11/27/25 at 12:40 pm to KWL85
quote:The reason is that the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, such as IBIT were made available on January 11th 2024. So IBIT has only been available for less than two years.
Ibit doesn't track btc as close as I would expect. Ibit is up 104% for 5 years, but btc is up 399%. Why the large discrepancy?
Posted on 11/28/25 at 8:03 am to 98eagle
I can't think of one time we've traded in the $84k-$94k range for more than a couple days. It seems to just get skipped regardless of which direction we're going.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 9:51 am to 98eagle
Thanks. I feel stupid right now. Might be best to not make any trade today. Lol.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 10:16 am to KWL85
quote:
Looking to trade. I am new to crypto. Something I would hold for several months, possibly longer depending on performance. Thinking of going the etf route. Ibit doesn't track btc as close as I would expect. Ibit is up 104% for 5 years, but btc is up 399%. Why the large discrepancy?
If you don't know the answer to this question, DO NOT TRADE. You are about to lose everything.
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