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Started By
Message
Metaplanet-MTPLF/3350
Posted on 5/21/25 at 7:32 am
Posted on 5/21/25 at 7:32 am
Trigger warning. This thread is about a company involved in the bitcoin space so if that’s not for you, read no further.
Second warning: This is easily the most volatile stock I’ve ever owned. Nothing I am about to say should be considered financial advice or even encouragement. This stock could 100% rip your face off. Highly combustible.
This is a hotel company in Japan that has transitioned into a MSTR knock off. Because of their size relative to MSTR and the very generous lending conditions in Japan, they can run the strategy much more efficiently than MSTR was able to. Also, spot btc capital gains are taxed at like 3x what capital gains on equities are taxed at so the stock inherently carries a premium.
Anyways, this stock was pretty sleepy in the bitcoin twitter space until last week and it’s currently blowing up. And the stock is apparently one of the most heavily shorted stocks in Japan but the Japan markets have halted trading both days this week due to its rigid limit up stop trading rules. So the exchange with all of the equity’s liquidity is frozen out and a bunch of degen traders in the US are loading up simultaneously.
I bought a little late last week (~$4.75 cb) but obviously wish I had bought more. Im not trying to trade any type of short squeeze and I wouldn’t be qualified to say when one is taking place. But I do like the stock regardless and think it is still presents considerable opportunity. My time horizon is long and I am going to try to hold through any early crazy run in the stock price. Not financial advice. I mostly just wanted to have a thread to bump one day if this went parabolic. I could very well lose my arse.
The US otc ticker is MTPLF and the Japanese ticker is 3350. MTPLF closed at $7.39/share yesterday 5/20/25. Market cap is 2.97 billion.
Second warning: This is easily the most volatile stock I’ve ever owned. Nothing I am about to say should be considered financial advice or even encouragement. This stock could 100% rip your face off. Highly combustible.
This is a hotel company in Japan that has transitioned into a MSTR knock off. Because of their size relative to MSTR and the very generous lending conditions in Japan, they can run the strategy much more efficiently than MSTR was able to. Also, spot btc capital gains are taxed at like 3x what capital gains on equities are taxed at so the stock inherently carries a premium.
Anyways, this stock was pretty sleepy in the bitcoin twitter space until last week and it’s currently blowing up. And the stock is apparently one of the most heavily shorted stocks in Japan but the Japan markets have halted trading both days this week due to its rigid limit up stop trading rules. So the exchange with all of the equity’s liquidity is frozen out and a bunch of degen traders in the US are loading up simultaneously.
I bought a little late last week (~$4.75 cb) but obviously wish I had bought more. Im not trying to trade any type of short squeeze and I wouldn’t be qualified to say when one is taking place. But I do like the stock regardless and think it is still presents considerable opportunity. My time horizon is long and I am going to try to hold through any early crazy run in the stock price. Not financial advice. I mostly just wanted to have a thread to bump one day if this went parabolic. I could very well lose my arse.
The US otc ticker is MTPLF and the Japanese ticker is 3350. MTPLF closed at $7.39/share yesterday 5/20/25. Market cap is 2.97 billion.
This post was edited on 5/21/25 at 8:02 am
3
Posted on 5/21/25 at 9:02 am to beaverfever
Welcome to the next Bitcoin supercycle - Bitcoin Treasury Cycle.
The companies copying MSTR are going to push Bitcoin even higher than 90% of people imagined possible.
The companies copying MSTR are going to push Bitcoin even higher than 90% of people imagined possible.
Posted on 5/21/25 at 9:13 am to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
Welcome to the next Bitcoin supercycle - Bitcoin Treasury Cycle.
The companies copying MSTR are going to push Bitcoin even higher than 90% of people imagined possible.
The Bitcoin cry babies on this board continue to wallow in disbelief as everything we have been saying for years continues to come true and we keep reaching FU money in our accounts.
Posted on 5/21/25 at 9:15 am to tenderfoot tigah
At first I wasn’t keen on the idea of all of the knock offs but then I realized that these entities can work much more efficiently when they’re lighter than MSTR. You can arb fiat debt into btc much more quickly when you don’t already have a $120B valuation.
That made me think, are these companies that can accelerate that return also going to accelerate bitcoin price way ahead of the regular curve. Bitcoin is a black hole and Saylor has showed people how to create black holes around that black hole.
That made me think, are these companies that can accelerate that return also going to accelerate bitcoin price way ahead of the regular curve. Bitcoin is a black hole and Saylor has showed people how to create black holes around that black hole.
Posted on 5/21/25 at 9:21 am to beaverfever
These bitcoin proxy's have done well. Others to consider are ASST, CEP, and DFDV.
Posted on 5/21/25 at 9:27 am to mach316
Adam Back created a metric to capture how quickly these companies were able to eat through their mNAV premium based on their trailing performance. For Metaplanet it was like 4 months. Thats asinine. The returns on that are hard to fathom when you extrapolate that out. Obviously that rate diminishes greatly with time and size but still. I don't think people fully grasp the implication of that.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 12:55 pm to beaverfever
I was looking at this. What do you think is driving the poor performance the last couple of days?
Posted on 5/22/25 at 2:43 pm to Jax-Tiger
It had a blow off top because there was a massive rally and then a short squeeze on top of that. It’s done a 3.5x in the last month so it’s hard to blame it for coming back to earth a bit today. That’s the entire nature of the stock.
It will continue to be incredibly volatile but it will probably establish a new short term trading range and then go on another run. The more abused the stock gets on the downside, the better. This isn’t UNH. It sells volatility. It’s really hard to own a stock like that but it’s the nature of how it turns dollars into bitcoin at a rapid pace. You have to try to get a decent entry and forget about it.
It will continue to be incredibly volatile but it will probably establish a new short term trading range and then go on another run. The more abused the stock gets on the downside, the better. This isn’t UNH. It sells volatility. It’s really hard to own a stock like that but it’s the nature of how it turns dollars into bitcoin at a rapid pace. You have to try to get a decent entry and forget about it.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 2:47 pm to beaverfever
I might throw a couple grand at it while it's down, to see if I can stomach the ride.
This post was edited on 5/22/25 at 2:48 pm
Posted on 5/22/25 at 3:00 pm to Jax-Tiger
There is a guy on X that owns almost 4 million shares and is saying it’s headed to Valhalla lol. Dude knew it would run too hot and correct but he didn’t he flinch . Some of the people that invest in this space aren’t human.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 3:41 pm to beaverfever
I'm not going to have enough skin in the game to make me nervous. I'm just worried that it will be a distraction.
This post was edited on 5/22/25 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 5/22/25 at 3:49 pm to Jax-Tiger
My 12k position turned into a 40k position in 3 days lol. I just wanted to invest in a company not 3x in a week. You can stay out of the fight but this stock will pull you in. Most companies I would walk but I honestly thought there was 25x potential when I got in so i didn’t want to get distracted. And I’m not good at leaving good enough alone.
This post was edited on 5/22/25 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 5/22/25 at 8:34 pm to I Love Bama
What fundamentals is this speculation built on? What sound business principles and structures?
Seems like a pump and dump bubble con to me, but I do wish you the best, and hope it turns out amazing for you.
Seems like a pump and dump bubble con to me, but I do wish you the best, and hope it turns out amazing for you.
Posted on 5/22/25 at 9:00 pm to Warfox
I wouldn’t assume something is a con just because i didn’t understand it. Well I probably have done that but it never helped me learn anything.
Also the warnings in this thread are very clear. This isn’t for people who are unfamiliar with the space. I would actually discourage anyone who doesn’t understand the concepts from getting involved.
Also the warnings in this thread are very clear. This isn’t for people who are unfamiliar with the space. I would actually discourage anyone who doesn’t understand the concepts from getting involved.
This post was edited on 5/22/25 at 9:12 pm
Posted on 5/23/25 at 8:55 am to beaverfever
I bought more at $6.29 just now. I’ve got another limit order around $5.50.
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 8:58 am
Posted on 5/23/25 at 9:55 am to beaverfever
I bought 500 shares at $6.25. Not enough to sweat. But maybe a new car if it pops...
Posted on 5/23/25 at 10:37 am to Jax-Tiger
I think a lot of people who have no idea what the trade is just bought the short squeeze story and dumped when Japanese markets opened back up which allowed the shorts to cover. So there was a big flush of tourist money. That had nothing to do with my position originally but I was aware of it. I don’t expect THAT kind of volatility going forward but it’ll still be fun.
We’re trading at about a 4.5 multiple on their NAV and their months to cover that multiple is about 7. That means at their current yield rate we would be at par on the current investment relative to the net assets in 7 months. I’m sure that rate diminishes but even if it were 2 or 3 years I think there’s serious value in this price range. We’ll see. Good luck.
NFA as always. Be careful with this one if you step your toes in.
We’re trading at about a 4.5 multiple on their NAV and their months to cover that multiple is about 7. That means at their current yield rate we would be at par on the current investment relative to the net assets in 7 months. I’m sure that rate diminishes but even if it were 2 or 3 years I think there’s serious value in this price range. We’ll see. Good luck.
NFA as always. Be careful with this one if you step your toes in.
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 10:39 am
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